UFC Fight Night 64 Preliminary Card Predictions

The UFC continues its hectic schedule this weekend, as the Octagon touches down in Poland for the first time in company history. Headlined by a heavyweight rematch, the card hosts a bevy of European talent. 

Mirko Cro Cop and Gabriel Gonzaga meet in the main event in a rematch of one of the most infamous finishes in UFC history. Back in the day, Gonzaga derailed Cro Cop's title hopes by hitting a highlight-reel head-kick knockout over Cro Cop, stealing the Pride veteran's signature move to win.

A year of mediocre picking ability continued last weekend, as these predictions went just 1-3. However, we could blame a bad judging decision and some surprises, so hopefully we get back on track here.

Without further ado, let's look at the prelims and make some predictions.

2015 Riley's Record: 37-22

Last Event: UFC Fight Night 63 (1-3)

Taylor Lapilus vs. Rocky Lee

Kicking off the cards are the featherweights, as Frenchman Taylor Lapilus makes his UFC debut against The Ultimate Fighter: China veteran Rocky Lee of Taiwan.

Lapilus is a submission specialist who holds an 8-1 record. All but one of his fights took place in France, where he has become one of the better prospects from his country.

Then there is Lee, who is 3-0 as a pro and currently trains with American Kickboxing Academy in Thailand with Mike Swick. He was a semifinalist on TUF China, where he tapped out Jianwei He before eventual winner Guangyou Ning knocked him out of the tournament.

Lapilus has fought a higher level of competition and has more skills at this point. He should take out Lee and move on to bigger and better things.

Prediction: Lapilus def. Lee via submission

Marcin Bandel vs. Stevie Ray

Next up are the lightweights, as Poland's own Marcin Bandel meets late replacement Stevie Ray. The Scot fills in for Jason Saggo, who suffered a knee injury in the lead-up to this fight.

Bandel is a submission fighter who is known for his joint locks, especially his leglocks. He depends on getting fights to the mat, where he works his refined ground game.

His UFC debut was short and forgettable, as Mairbek Taisumov finished him. That reversed a big winning streak for the Pole, where he was finishing off opponents left and right on the ground.

As for Ray, he has a striking base but has shown to have a good ground game as well. He is the former Cage Warriors lightweight champion, where he established himself as one of the best lightweights in Europe.

He enters this fight after winning four out of his last five bouts. This includes two bouts in a row over UFC veteran Curt Warburton, which pushed Ray into the spotlight.

This should be a competitive affair, though Ray's performance may be affected by such a short-notice bout. Ray's well-roundedness will prevail, earning him a win in his debut.

Prediction: Ray def. Bandel via decision

Aleksandra Albu vs. Izabela Badurek

Moving on, we head to the strawweight division, as Russian prospect Aleksandra Albu makes her long-anticipated debut against Polish fighter Izabela Badurek.

Badurek has a judo base, which explains why she has five submissions in five wins. She is just 23 years old, which shows she has time to grow, but this is her first time venturing to 115 pounds, so the weigh-in may be interesting.

She is 5-2 as a pro but has yet to take on any fighter of note. Nevertheless, she is on a three-fight win streak, so she will be looking to continue her run of submissions here.

As for Albu, the UFC signed the Russian fighter back in 2013, but a major injury shelved her. Many fans have pointed out the company signed the striker for her looks rather than her proven skill, as she only has one sanctioned fight to her pro record.

Albu's striking and strength as a bodybuilder seem like a decent enough combination to ward off the takedown attempts of Badurek. She will use a sprawl-and-brawl method to earn the victory here in a shocker.

Prediction: Albu def. Badurek via TKO

Daniel Omielanczuk vs. Anthony Hamilton

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The big boys are due to the cage next, as heavyweights Daniel Omielanczuk of Poland and Anthony Hamilton of the United States collide.

Hamilton is a power-punching knockout artist who has yet to live up to his potential since coming to the UFC. His game is based around hurting opponents on the feet with his hands and putting them away quickly.

His three-fight UFC stint has seen him go 1-2, sandwiching a win over Ruan Potts with losses to Oleksiy Oliynyk and Todd Duffee. That being said, he has yet to go to decision since entering the big show.

Then there is Omielanczuk, a submission specialist who has finished most of his fights on the ground. Securing takedowns is a big part of his game, though that may be tough against the athletic Hamilton.

Omielanczuk opened up his UFC career with an impressive knockout out Nandor Guelmino. However, in his follow-up bout with the company, Jared Rosholt outwrestled him.

This is basically a striker vs. grappler matchup, so intangibles like endurance and athleticism will come into play. All things considered, Hamilton should take this one, although it will be close.

Prediction: Hamilton def. Omielanczuk via decision

Damian Stasiak vs. Yaotzin Meza

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Moving on, we head to the featherweight division, as Polish newcomer Damian Stasiak fights Yaotzin Meza in a last-minute bout.

Stasiak is an 8-2 fighter who has a karate base, although most of his wins have come via submission. He is riding a five-fight win streak, including a victory a little over a week ago in BAMMA against Mike Grundy that likely earned Stasiak this opportunity. 

As for Meza, he moves up to 145 pounds for this bout. A normal bantamweight, he is an MMA Lab veteran who has been a staple of the West Coast MMA scene.

Despite a win over John Albert in his sophomore effort, Meza has struggled in the UFC. Chad Mendes, Chico Camus and Sergio Pettis defeated him, with the Camus fight being overturned after the fact.

Stasiak doesn't appear to be ready to step up to the big leagues yet, though Meza hasn't done much to instill a bunch of confidence in this pick. Nevertheless, Meza should win here.

Prediction: Meza def. Stasiak via decision

Sergio Moraes vs. Mickael Lebout

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Next up are the welterweights, as Brazilian grappler Sergio Moraes takes on late-replacement fighter Mickael Lebout of France. Moraes had two opponents drop out of this fight, as Peter Sobotta and Gasan Umalatov both suffered injuries in training.

Moraes is a master of Brazilian jiu-jitsu, which is basically what he resorts to every fight. This is with good reason, as when the fight hits the mat, Serginho can proficiently submit anybody who dares meet him halfway.

He has had trouble staying healthy, though, as have his opponents in recent times. He has not fought since 2013, but he has won two straight via submission over Renee Forte and Neil Magny.

Lebout is a grappler in his own right, though I doubt he would wish to engage in a ground war with a guy on the level of Moraes. The Frenchman has fought in Poland before and is on a six-fight surge, so he will look to ride the momentum into this bout.

Styles make fights, and this is not a great stylistic matchup for Lebout. Also, given the fact Lebout takes this on short notice, Moraes should have no trouble grounding the Frenchman and submitting him.

Prediction: Moraes def. Lebout via submission

Bartosz Fabinski vs. Garreth McLellan

A pair of newcomers make their respective UFC debuts in the middleweight division, as Poland's own Bartosz Fabinski takes on South African fighter Garreth McLellan. McLellan was originally slated to fight Krzysztof Jotko, who broke his hand in training.

McLellan is probably the top fighter from South Africa right now, as Soldier Boy enters this fight with an impressive 12-2 record. He is a submission fighter with great physical strength, something he uses when he grabs hold of a neck and secures a choke.

He comes into this bout on a six-fight winning streak on his home turf. This is going to be a huge step up in competition for him, so we will see how he responds to the competition under the lights.

As for Fabinski, he is a judo stylist who enjoys punishing opponents with heavy ground-and-pound when he gets top position. His takedowns are solid, as is his top control, which has led to most of his 11 wins as a pro.

Fabinski enters this fight on a four-fight winning streak, beating the likes of Alik Tseiko and Gregor Herb. The keys for him are effective strikes and securing the top on the mat against a grappler like McLellan.

This is a close fight, but Fabinski is stronger at this point. He should tire out the South African and earn a win in his UFC debut.

Prediction: Fabinski def. McLellan via TKO

Seth Baczynski vs. Leon Edwards

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Capping off the prelims are the welterweights, as Seth Baczynski and Leon Edwards do battle to jockey for position in a crowded division.

Baczynski is a brawler with good all-around skills—a jack-of-all-trades, if you will. He doesn't stand out in one facet of the game, as he is just a solid mixed martial artist.

He is in a must-win situation here, as he is 1-4 in his last five. He does own a victory over Neil Magny in that stretch but has dropped two in a row to Thiago Alves and Alan Jouban.

As for Edwards, the Brit is an explosive, athletic striker who is constantly looking for the knockout. His movement is a strength, as is his ability to get a good amount of snap on his strikes.

His UFC debut was a close, contentious one, as he dropped a split verdict to Claudio Silva in Brazil. That loss reversed a six-fight winning streak, where he was tearing up the British MMA scene.

Edwards needs to establish a sprawl and distance early, as Baczynski will be looking for clinch, dirty boxing and takedowns. If Edwards can get going with his striking, he has a good chance, but the grind of Baczynski is too hard to shake off.

Prediction: Baczynski def. Edwards via decision