The 86 Board Presents: Who Should Go No. 1 in Fantasy Football?

(The 86 Board is the fantasy sports edition of my column. To those of you unfamiliar with the inner-workings of the restaurant industry and it's unique vernacular, the "86 board" is the list of items that a restaurant is out of. In some restaurants, people also get put on this list if they are heading on their way out, or just on somebody's, how should I put this, other list. Therefore, sometimes things get 86'ed.  Throughout the fantasy football season, you will be able to catch 86 Board articles that will be devoted to fantasy, and regular articles devoted to everything else.  Think of it as my fantasy alter ego. Enjoy!)

The season is finally upon us.

Fantasy football represents the best interactive sporting experience in all of athletics. 

For many of us, fantasy season is much more important than the actual sport of football. 

Okay, maybe that is just people that don't live in an area that has a football team, or because of fate or the cruel sports gods were unfortunate enough to be born Detroit Lions fans and are unable to root for any other team due to a misguided sense of loyalty (okay, maybe that last one is just me).

The point is that fantasy does more for the sport of football than anything else since cold beer. 

It makes the casual fan invested.

As my yearly investment begins its renewal, and my primary draft fast approaches, I am confronted by the age-old question of who should be the No. 1 pick.

Every year, there is a consensus about a can't-miss No.1 pick. 

And seemingly every year, the consensus is wrong. 

This year, those in the know have anointed two choices for No. 1, Adrian Peterson and Michael Turner.

How those two became the choice seems to be pretty straight forward.  They both had the best numbers among running backs last season.

However, nothing in football is consistent.  Gone are the days of Barry Sanders rushing for over 1,100 yards every year like clockwork.  Even he abruptly retired.

Nothing is written in stone, and football fate is the cruelest of all mistresses. As such, we are bound to be victims of her whims. 

However, I am a firm believer that fate rewards those that buck the trend.  At the very least, it is important for us to know what we are getting into, rather than just mindlessly following the herd.

Who knows, perhaps those in the know floated their two consensus picks in order to throw off everyone. After all, most prognosticators belong to drafts as well.

You may be asking yourself, what makes me any different? 

The difference is that not many people read my articles. In fact, half the members of my draft have no clue I write for Bleacher Report. As such, I have the luxury of purging my mind of fantasy knowledge without the overt threat of having it come back and bite me. 

Additionally, if I am right, I can always dust off this copy next year and get in all my "I told you so's" with a credible source at my finger tips.

Who knows, maybe I am just an altruistic giver looking to brighten up someone's season. 

The Problems With the Favorites

First off, I am not trying to discourage anyone from drafting Peterson or Turner. If you have a first round pick, each of these guys will likely make a good choice.

What I am trying to do is determine who is the best fantasy pick. In order to do that, some people need to be disqualified.

Adrian Peterson is a special talent. His combination of explosiveness and vision has not been seen since Eric Dickerson. Even LaDainian Tomlinson has to tip his hat to Peterson. The kid can just flat-out play.

However, I am not sold on his durability. Last year, Peterson surprised everyone by running 363 times for over 1,700 yards. He played in all 16 games and showed minimal wear and tear. 

But Peterson is not used to running that many times and not paying for it down the road. Only once before had Peterson rushed more than 240 times in a season, and that was his freshman year in college in which he rushed 339 times for over 1,900 yards. 

In his two subsequent years in college, he never topped 220, missing significant time with injuries.

In fact, injuries shortened his rookie campaign as well, limiting him to 14 games and 238 carries.

But to jump from no more than 238 carries in a season since his freshman year to a career high of 360+ is a huge jump, and I have a feeling it will tax him this year.

Secondly, the Brett Favre situation in Minnesota will have an effect on him. 

Sure, he still has a very powerful offensive line, but he now has a gunslinger in the pocket that will throw interceptions.  Because of those interceptions, the defense will likely spend more time on the field, changing the time of possession in a way that will automatically eat into Peterson's carries.

Don't believe me? Just ask Thomas Jones.  With the addition of Favre, he lost 20 carries from the previous year. While 20 carries may not seem like a lot, figure that most backs shoot for 20 carries a game. Therefore, he lost a game. (In the name of full disclosure, Jones did make up for this with a much higher touchdown total, so in the long run he had a much better season...but the point remains).

Lastly, Peterson is on a better team playing in a weak division.  While all three of their division opponents improved in some way, Minnesota is far and away the best team. 

As a result, it is very possible that they will have plenty of games that will be over by halftime, leaving Peterson to watch from the bench. 

Furthermore, they will likely wrap up their division before the fantasy playoffs begin, which could lead to Peterson being used sparingly against a weak Cincinnati team in the first round and against a tough defense in Chicago in the fantasy championship.

This all being said, I could also see Peterson getting more goal-line chances, boosting his touchdown total to around 12 or 14. 

My prediction: if he stays healthy, he should have a year like his rookie campaign with about 1,300 yards and 12 touchdowns.

This leads us to the other consensus pick, Michael "the Burner" Turner.

First off, I love this kid. I drafted him last year in the fourth round and he paid off in a major way, leading me to a championship tie (I know, I know, a tie is terrible...but we didn't have a rule on the books, something we remedied this year.).

However, there is a dubious number to remember with Turner, something you are likely to hear over and over this draft season: 370.

Football Outsiders originally brought up a theory (and I learned about it through ESPN The Magazine) that observes that running backs that reach 370 or more carries in a season nearly always see their numbers plummet the following season. 

Don't believe me? Listen to some of the others to eclipse this number: Jamal Anderson, James Wilder, Christian Okoye, Terrell Davis, Barry Foster and George Rogers. Including Turner, this number has been reached or passed 28 times by 21 different backs.

In my own research, I have found that only Eric Dickerson seemed to be able to substantially buck this trend, rushing 390 times as a rookie and 379 times as a sophomore. But Dickerson was a gazelle that ran away from defenders, not through them like Turner.

The best comparisons I can draw to Turner would be Larry Johnson, Jerome Bettis, Okoye, Rogers and Anderson.  Each of them were 230 lbs or bigger and were known for running through contact.

After reaching 370 carries in a season, Johnson went from 416 carries to 158 carries, with a drop in fantasy points from 334 to 99.

Bettis went from 375 to 316, with a fantasy drop from 232 to 146.

Okoye went from 370 to 245, with a fantasy drop of 221 to 125 points.

Rogers went from 378 to 122, with a fantasy drop of 258 to 74.

The biggest drop was Anderson, who went from a then-record of 410 carries to a sad 19 in year two, with a fantasy drop of 304 points.  Ouch!

So is history going to repeat itself?  Unless Turner absorbs less punishment (which seems unlikely), he will likely be looking at a precipitous fall.

That being said, if he falls to me in the second round, he is mine. But I just can't justify a first rounder on a guy with this kind of history out there.

Quarterbacks

Okay, so now that we have disqualified those two backs, who do we take?

First off, people need to de-program themselves from the "running back in the first round" mantra. With the development of two- and three-back systems, a three-down back that carries the ball 30 times a game is going the way of the Dinosaur.

Therefore, we need to open up the discussion to quarterbacks and (I dare say) wide receivers.

As far as QBs go, Tom Brady is going to have a huge year. If you know anything about Brady, you will know that he loves adversity. When he is told that he can't do something, he will do it and do it well. 

I would be shocked if he didn't throw for at least 40 touchdowns and 4,000 yards.

Of course, if we mention Brady we have to mention Peyton Manning, although I could see Manning dropping back to the pack slightly. Look for the new coach to try to establish the run, and therefore Joseph Addai may become a viable first rounder again.

Drew Brees is another QB that should grab your attention. Brees put up super-human numbers last year, and he will likely do it again. 

With a healthy Marques Colston and Lance Moore, not to mention a stronger running game (more on that in a minute), he could throw more than 40 TDs. If you are currently on the clock, he should definitely be on your mind right now.

Kurt Warner is the last QB that should be considered this high.  Although he is old and brittle, he has defied the odds at every stage of his career and he is returning all three of his wideouts from last year. However, they will likely run the ball more, and Beanie Wells will eat up some of the red zone touchdowns.

Personally, I will not touch Warner with a 10-foot pole ever since I drafted him No. 2 overall several years ago when he played for St. Louis, right before he promptly went down the toilet. Never again.

Wideouts

As for the guys that receive those passes, a first-round pick is a huge gamble for a wideout. Wide receivers are the only player on the field that cannot truly decide their own destiny. They are dependent on so many factors in order to get the ball.

Therefore, only those with amazing physical tools, and the penchant for reaching pay dirt should be considered.

Right now, there are three wide receivers that are worthy of a first-round selection, but each is also worthy of No. 1 overall status: Larry Fitzgerald, Randy Moss, and Calvin Johnson.

Okay, if you watched the playoffs last year, you know that Fitzgerald is a no-brainer, and anyone that saw what Moss and Brady did the last time they were paired together knows the same.

So let's move on to "Megatron" Johnson. Last year, Johnson did the impossible; he was a top performing wide receiver on a team without a quarterback, consistent running game, or a stable second receiver.

Every week, Johnson performed. In some cases, he was double-, triple-, or even quadruple-teamed, but because of his freakish physical attributes, he performed.  In some cases, he only caught two passes, but he managed to make them touchdowns.

Last year, I drafted Johnson in the fifth round (after Roy Williams was drafted), and he was one of my most consistent performers.

This year, he will have some help.  The Lions, though likely to still be terrible, will have a better offensive line, running game and second and third wideouts.

Additionally, a slim and rejuvenated Daunte Culpepper will be reunited with offensive coordinator Scott Linehan. The last time Culpepper played with Linehan, he threw 39 touchdown passes, most of which to a tall, freakishly athletic man by the name of Randy Moss. Enough said.

Furthermore, the Lions defense is still terrible, meaning that Detroit will have to out-gun their opponents, and that starts and ends with Johnson.

No other wide receivers should be picked in the first round, let alone No.1 overall. Some will argue that Andre Johnson is worthy of being in the conversation, but I am not wild about the health of quarterback Matt Schaub. And this year the Texans don't have Sage Rosenfels to back him up. 

That being said, Johnson does have a very weak schedule coverage-wise, and therefore he could be a great value in round two.

The Rest

So who else does that leave us with?  Obviously, there are some running backs that would be worthy of the No. 1 pick, even if those two don't reside in Minnesota or Atlanta.

One back that figures to have an amazing year is Maurice Jones-Drew.  Look for MJD to have sick, Turner-like numbers this season. The only thing standing in his way is defensive production and quarterback play. If all things are equal, he will take it to the house.

Another back poised to tear it up this year is Matt Forte.  Some people believe that new QB Jay Cutler will eat into his numbers, but I think that Chicago's defense is poised to prove that they are the real show in town, meaning that the offense should control time of possession. 

Brandon Jacobs is another back worthy of top pick consideration, although I think that he could eventually blow a tire this season. Big backs just don't last that long, especially really big backs like Jacobs.

And although many people will think I am crazy, I just do not buy Steven Jackson, DeAngelo Williams, or even LaDainian Tomlinson putting up big numbers. Don't get me wrong; they should all be second-round picks at the latest, but there are just too many question marks. 

Jackson has never lived up to his breakout year in 2006, and he is an upright runner that is a bruiser, so injuries will always be an issue. 

Williams had a fluke year, and Jonathon Stewart should eat into some of his carries this season.

And what can you say about Tomlinson? Two words: thirty years. Tomlinson just turned 30, and that is the year that all backs begin their decline.  LT just started a little early.

There are a handful of other backs that will be solid first-round picks, but all have their red flags.  These include Marion Barber (Felix Jones will get some burn), Steve Slaton (can he really hold up?), Brian Westbrook (how will the wildcat affect him?), Ronnie Brown (Ricky Williams anyone?), and Frank Gore (hard to be effective in a one-dimensional offense).

In my mind, there are two or three running backs that could be sleeper No. 1 picks. 

Clinton Portis is a stud, and has proven himself in this league, so it is weird to think of him as a sleeper. However, Washington will be a better team defensively and Jason Campbell will be eager to prove himself in his second year in the same system. 

As a result, Portis could see his numbers sky-rocket.  At the very least, the Redskins have a fairly easy first half schedule, so Portis may be just what you need to hit the ground running.

My second sleeper first-rounder is Ryan Grant. Grant quietly put together a very good sophomore season. The only knock against Grant last year was consistency and touchdowns. This year, both should improve. 

The Green Bay defense is eager to bounce back from a disappointing season, and they are just young enough to do it. 

Furthermore, quarterback Aaron Rodgers is poised for a big year, and he is surrounded by possession receivers that lack a lot of red zone physicality. As a result, Grant should see his red zone chances increase.

My super sleeper pick this year is Pierre Thomas. If you take nothing else from this article, take this to heart. Thomas is going to have a monster year in New Orleans. 

Upon taking over as the starting back last year in week eleven, Thomas scored in all but one of his remaining six games. Additionally, he averaged nearly 80 yards per game. 

This season, the Saints will likely put up excellent numbers again, and Thomas will again be the primary back. Sure, Reggie Bush will take some of his carries, but Thomas will eventually push Bush to a scat back role.

If Thomas were to continue to play the way he did last year, he could be looking at 1,300 yards and 16 touchdowns if his averages remain the same. 

Add to that the fact that he averaged a touchdown receiving every other game during his starting turn last year, and you could be looking at a player with a Brian Westbrook-like upside with five less years and plenty less wear.

So there you have it, all the information you need to arm yourself for your first two rounds. 

Lucky for you, you are the only person in your draft to see this article, so you can spend your remaining days and hours before your draft coming up with a funny team name. Might I suggest Mercy Flush? 

Okay, I am not a funny guy and that name needs work. Hey, I can't do everything for you!