
Final Four 2015: Updated Bracket, Last-Minute Predictions for Saturday's Games
After three weeks of NCAA tournament action, we are down to just four teams doing whatever it takes to win a title.
The Final Four is loaded with storylines—from great coaching all around to matchups between elite players and future NBA prospects to one team trying to chase history. However, none of this matters when the ball is tipped.
In each semifinal game, the winner will be the one who can take advantage of matchups and simply play better than its opponent. Here is a look at predictions for which two teams will end up playing for a national championship on Monday.
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| 6:09 p.m. | Duke vs. Michigan State | TBS |
| 8:49 p.m. | Kentucky vs. Wisconsin | TBS |
Duke vs. Michigan State
Michigan State has been a great story this postseason as head coach Tom Izzo inexplicably led yet another team to the Final Four despite a pedestrian season. The Spartans certainly have talent, recently led by Travis Trice, but the squad certainly doesn't stand up on paper compared to the other teams left in the tournament or even past Michigan State teams.
However, the difference with this group is that it plays well as a team. On defense, players are seemingly always in the right position while the offense excels thanks to great passing at all times. When you play like this, you can beat anyone in the nation.
That said, Duke is simply playing too well to stop at this point. The Blue Devils have been outstanding all year long with Jahlil Okafor dominating in the post while Tyus Jones and Quinn Cook make up a dangerous backcourt.
While you could previously say the play on the defensive end was a weakness, that is no longer the case, as ESPN noted:
"Duke has the 2nd-best defensive efficiency of any team in the NCAA Tournament. Only Kentucky has been better. pic.twitter.com/8suSC0rEE0
— ESPN College BBall (@ESPNCBB) April 3, 2015"
Justise Winslow has been a difference-maker defensively while also bringing down rebounds and keying fast breaks in each game. Even when he isn't scoring, he is doing everything he can to help his team win.
Even with a lack of depth, this group of players will be too much for Michigan State to overcome. Denzel Valentine and Branden Dawson will ensure a competitive battle, but look for Duke to once again pull away late to earn the win.
Prediction: Duke 67, Michigan State 58
Kentucky vs. Wisconsin
A lot of this game can be assessed from both team's efforts in the Elite Eight.
Kentucky struggled against Notre Dame as the normally elite defense struggled to stay with the spread-out attack from the Irish. Jerian Grant and company forced their opponent to defend the perimeter, which led to easier attempts near the basket.
This is the same strategy Wisconsin used to defeat Arizona, which also has an imposing frontcourt full of tall defensive-minded players. The Badgers have an almost unstoppable offense thanks to the ability for all five men on the floor to shoot from the outside, causing mismatches at every position.
Even Kentucky head coach John Calipari admitted his teams will have problems defending the Badgers, as noted by Alex Forkner of Rivals.com:
Wisconsin will be led offensively by Frank Kaminsky, who was recently named the top player in the nation:
With Kaminsky, Sam Dekker and others, this is one offense that could give Kentucky problems.
On the other end of the court, the Wildcats usually succeed again with their size as they are a dominant offensive rebounding team. Even a poor shooting day is disguised by rebounds and easy putbacks.
Unfortunately, Wisconsin ranks fourth in the nation in defensive rebounding percentage, according to KenPom.com. This will limit Kentucky's offense and give the Badgers the slight edge in this highly anticipated battle.
Prediction: Kentucky 60, Wisconsin 61
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