A Few (53) Good Men: Predicting the NE Patriots' Roster, Part One

With the first round of roster cuts coming on Sept. 1 and two preseason games under the belt, it's time to start looking at who will make the final 53-man roster, and why they will (or won't) be suiting up Week One. This is part one, forecasting the defense. Part two will go up tomorrow afternoon.

The New England Patriots have a lot to prove. They may have more to prove, as a team, than any team coming off an 11-win season in some time.

Throughout this decade, there's just been this feeling that, no matter what happens, Belichick and co. will just find a way to scrap their way into the playoffs, build some momentum, and turn some heads.

But with Brady going down in Week One last year, coupled with defensive collapses in the playoffs the two years previous, the Patriots have lost a good deal of their mojo.

Belichick, always hailed as a defensive master, has certainly had his reputation dragged through the mud a bit. Last year, 11 wins were a sign that the Patriots are a well-rounded club that, despite having one of the most valuable players in the league, were not a one-man team.

The problem, though, is that once again the defense failed to deliver when it counted. There are specific plays—third and fifteen against New York, for example—but the team seemed unable to come up with the big play that has always seemed to come right at the perfect time for the Patriots.

Now, Belichick has installed a new (old) defense that plays to his team's strengths better, he's gotten younger across the board, and brought in some experience to fill the biggest holes from last year.

But this is still a defense that, despite boasting Pro-Bowl calibre talent across the defense, was impotent in the red zone and on third down—the hallmarks of a good defense.

Clearly, this is a defense with questions left to answer.

And they better be good ones, or you may be reading an awful lot of "Emperor's New Hoodie"-themed articles when the decade comes to a close.

So let's go position-by-position for the defense today and see where things stand, where the toughest calls are, and to whom the Patriots may have to bid adieu in the near future.

Defensive Line

Locks: Richard Seymour, Ty Warren, Jarvis Green, Derrick Burgess. Vince Wilfork, Ron Brace.

Should make it: Myron Pryor, Mike Wright

Likely left out: Titus Adams, Darryl Richard, Stephen Williams

I'll start here because it's probably the biggest source of strength on the Patriots roster. Burgess is listed as a DE on Patriots.com so I'll list him as that here. He's also spent very little time coming from a two-point stance so it's pretty clear the team views him as a DE who could zone out into coverage rather than a hybrid linebacker who can rush.

Pryor has shown some great instincts and seems a phenomenal young player for behind undrafted. He's maybe a little small height-wise at just 6'1'' but he's still 310 and has a good motor. With the switch to the 4-3 I expect them to keep him rather than try to put him on the practice squad.

Mike Wright should also make the roster after playing on the team for the last few years. He's a worker, but has finished the season on IR in 2006 and 2007 and is hurt again. If he's not on the roster because of injury, I'd expect them to move Adams up to the roster, practice squad Richard, and waive Williams.

Defensive Backfield

Locks: Leigh Bodden, Shawn Springs, Jonathan Wilhite, Darius Butler at CB. James Sanders, Patrick Chung, Brandon Meriweather at Safety.

Should make it: Terrence Wheatley, Brandon McGowan.

Likely left out: Herana-Daze Jones, Jamar Love, Matthew Slater

Wheatley is the big question here. He'll certainly make the Sept. 1 cuts, in my mind. But after two pretty poor games you have to wonder if the Patriots may release the young player.

In my mind it comes down to the film from the two preseason games. He's shown flashes of being a good cornerback, especially last year against Indy before getting hurt, but the team needs to see development.

Just in the Bengals game alone he was soundly beaten on a number of plays, both by Chad Ochocinco and Chris Henry. I only have the TV tape of the game, so I can't tell if he was beaten purely from a physical standpoint or if he was just stuck one-on-one in a bad situation.

He does carry value at special teams, but is that enough to make an already crowded roster?

At safety it's a bit more up in the air. McGowan is in a good spot bringing a lot of playing experience and good athleticism to the position, so I'd say he's in, especially after forcing a fumble against the Bengals.

The question then is whether Slater has done enough to make the roster.

He muffed a kick against the Bengals and seemed to take ages to pick it up before showcasing his blistering pace in getting to the edge on the opposite sideline, finishing with a good return.

But if his only value is as a fifth safety and a kick returner, the Patriots may decide they can get more out of the roster spot by giving kick return duties to a player who offers value elsewhere.

Linebacking Corps

Locks: Adalius Thomas, Jerod Mayo, Gary Guyton, Pierre Woods

Should make it: Tedy Bruschi, Tully Banta-Cain, Eric Alexander, Shawn Crable

Left out: Paris Lenon, Vinny Ciurciu, Rob Ninkovich

Right now, I think the most surprising thing here is that Tedy Bruschi is firmly on the bubble.

If Paris Lenon had shown more in camp (or if he has shown more that we just haven't seen in the games or in public portions of camp) then I think Bruschi would be out of a job.

In moving to the 4-3, the team needs some sort of veteran presence in the middle to backup Mayo and spell time with Guyton. Right now, I think that's Bruschi. But Lenon is a talent, younger than Tedy, and has experience at the position.

Bruschi should feel a bit lucky though that Lenon was the guy the Patriots brought in, though. While younger than Bruschi, at 32 and with little impact or experience at other positions or on special teams, Lenon isn't an incredibly attractive offer—at least not attractive enough to warrant cutting Bruschi.

While I think Bruschi getting cut before this season is unlikely, if it does happen don't say I didn't warn you.

Guyton and Woods are locks as backups, Banta-Cain played a great deal as a pure outside rusher across from Thomas in limited time so far, and Alexander isn't a career special teams player, but he's proven invaluable there and as a spot starter again and again.

Overview

The defense has certainly improved from last season at just about every position.

First off, the team is younger, with rookies who look to be legitimate playmakers.

Darius Butler continuously makes good plays, Patrick Chung is raw but a hard-hitting talent that should improve quickly, and Ron Brace and Myron Pryor look ready to step into one of the most talented front lines in the league.

At cornerback the team has picked up two veterans in Leigh Bodden and Shawn Springs who should perform a lot better than last year's group did.

Brandon Meriweather and Jerod Mayo have both turned in spectacular camps and are potentially elite-level defensive players.

While Bruschi has suddenly become the old man of the group, he should still be able to contribute especially if Gary Guyton isn't quite ready to step up as the backup inside backer in the 4-3.

So far, the defense has been good if not spectacular, but it's still just the preseason. With a lot of new faces and a new defensive system installed, you can't expect too much, too soon.

With a lot of key faces (Bodden, Burgess, Wilfork, and Seymour) in contract years this may be a defense that requires overhaul next season but it'll have a hell of a lot of motivation to improve on last years sub-par showing.

Couple that with the offense, which we'll examine tomorrow, and the Patriots look very solid heading into 2009.