What Recent History Suggests About Detroit Lions' 2015 NFL Draft Plan

Detroit Lions general manager Martin Mayhew is a friend who grew up in your neighborhood. You've been with him for every major life event and met every girlfriend. You know his history in and out at this point.

And you still have no idea what he'll do in the 2015 NFL draft.

Well, that's not entirely true. There's a high probability that he'll take a linebacker at some point considering he's selected one in five of the six drafts he's led in Detroit, including the last four years straight.

"

A look at Martin Mayhew's #Lions draft picks going into this year's final round of cuts (yellow = still on the team) pic.twitter.com/5ZXLKQJdS8

— Pride Of Detroit (@PrideOfDetroit) August 28, 2014"

Plus, he has a rather tried-and-true pattern that will be discussed shortly. But other than a couple of tendencies, it's tough to predict Mayhew's future behavior because he's learning. He's proven it by admitting mistakes and adjusting his strategy, so let's dive into the habits his history has laid out and what lessons are shaping his 2015 plan.

No Need? No Problem!

The lone pillar still standing from Mayhew's original drafting temple is his best-player-available philosophy. 

He's proven it time and time again, especially in the first round. Last year's selection of Eric Ebron still rubs plenty of people the wrong way and is the brightest example of Mayhew sticking to his guns. The Lions already had Brandon Pettigrew, a first-round pick in 2009, and Joseph Fauria (seven touchdowns in 2013) on the roster. There was no particular need for a tight end, but that didn't keep Mayhew from grabbing someone he thinks will help Detroit win games.

It was a move that turned quite a few heads:

"

TE Eric Ebron was a target... Ravens were surprised Detroit snagged him at No. 10. http://t.co/bRdtz8Iqch

— Garrett Downing (@gdowning14) May 22, 2014"

And has led to fans shaking theirs:

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No worries about Suh, Aaron Donald had 9 sacks and 19 TFLs as a rookie last year! ….Oh, the Lions passed on him to draft Eric Ebron. Right.

— Brian (@BKudron) March 9, 2015"

Time will tell if the Ebron pick will pan out, as he wasn't responsible for too many wins in 2014. He grabbed a grand total of one touchdown among his 25 catches that went for 248 yards. The other high-priced example was more of a wash, with the peaks of Nick Fairley's Detroit tenure being evened out by the valleys. 

Rick Osentoski/Associated Press

There are some constraints to this approach, though. Mayhew probably isn't going to take Marcus Mariota even if he falls a la Aaron Rodgers. Mayhew may be bold, but nobody burns a first-round pick on a quarterback when yours is only 27 years old. But everything else is on the table.

Character Is a Chief Concern

The franchise's desperation for talent after the disastrous 2008 season was on par with Liam Neeson's in Taken. There was nothing the team wouldn't do to find decent players, including overlooking rap sheets longer than the aforementioned movie's run on HBO. 

That led to Mayhew taking chances during the 2011 draft, and the return on that faith was a title. Unfortunately, this particular championship was measured by cuffs and cells as the Lions led the league in arrests, per Josh Slagter of MLive.com, who outed the guilty parties.

"Detroit's five arrests have come from three players, two each for Mikel Leshoure and Nick Fairley," Slagter said. "Johnny Culbreath was arrested for marijuana possession back in January. All three are members of the Lions' 2011 draft class."

Mind you, Titus Young was also a member of that class. The Boise State receiver is preparing for trial as he faces a total of 15 charges from a few separate incidents. 

You've also surely noticed that the Lions haven't been in contact with defensive tackle C.J. Mosley this offseason despite his solid play inside and a big hole in the positional rotation. It appears that the lack of interest is linked to his transgression in London, when he was caught smoking marijuana in his hotel room, which Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press has all but confirmed:

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Caldwell didn't dispute it as a factor in Ariz "@jaytaff77: think Mosley is not coming back because of London? Thought he played well enuf”

— Dave Birkett (@davebirkett) March 29, 2015"

Head coach Jim Caldwell doesn't mess around with players on the wrong side of the law. In a recent appearance on Pro Football Central, Kyle Meinke of MLive.com elaborated on how committed Caldwell is to reinforcing the consequences of poor decisions to his team during his "High Cost of Low Living" sessions. During these meetings, Caldwell talks about the latest players around the league to be arrested and the ramifications of those actions.

It appears Caldwell has rubbed off on Mayhew. According to Josh Katzenstein of The Detroit News, Mayhew recently admitted that the 2011 draft class was a mistake, and that he's "learned a lot from that." You can bet that Michigan defensive end Frank Clark and Washington cornerback Marcus Peters are probably off the team's board already.

If It's Broke, Don't Pick It

Rick Osentoski/Associated Press

The same homework that applies to character will also be done when it comes to injuries. Mayhew hasn't had the best of luck when it comes to players with college-earned wear and tear, and he's likely to be mindful of that.

Jahvid Best could have been a great pick. He was an explosive back who racked up 945 yards on 255 carries and another 774 yards through the air in just 22 games. But the concussions he sustained in college eventually caught up with him, forcing him into early retirement.

The Lions didn't let that unfortunate result deter them from grabbing Ryan Broyles, the NCAA's former all-time leader in receptions, in the second round that spring despite a torn ACL. Three years and two more devastating injuries later, Mayhew still doesn't know what he has in the former Oklahoma Sooner.

Those experiences will lead to a more risk-averse strategy when it comes to health. Mayhew isn't scared to select guys with high ceilings who need coaching and development (i.e. Larry Warford and Ziggy Ansah), but somebody like Jordan Phillips, who has had back issues in the past, might be off the first-round board.

Of course, Mayhew could succumb to the public pressure like he did in 2011. His tenure has seen the team rise from the lowest valley to a viable contender, but the honeymoon will eventually end. Fans won't settle for one-and-done playoff appearances for long.

But that scenario seems increasingly unlikely. Mayhew believes in himself and his front office, sometimes to a fault, like when his confidence in re-signing Ndamukong Suh led to the All-Pro's departure. Yet, he's likely to stick to his plan of picking the most talented player on his board, so long as said player's nose and bill of health are clean. Too bad we won't have access to that board until the drama has unfolded.

Brandon Alisoglu is a Detroit Lions Featured Columnist who has written about the Lions on multiple sites. He also co-hosts a Lions-centric podcast, Lions Central Radio. Yell at him on Twitter about how wrong he is @BrandonAlisoglu.