Diner Morning News: Examining the Odds For the Upcoming NFL Season

"Where observation is concerned, chance favors only the prepared mind."—Louis Pasteur, French chemist and microbiologist (1822-1895)

This week in the Diner and Tavern, we’re going to break down teams and their ability to get into the playoffs. In the Tavern, we’ll continue our blue-chip series and conclude with a final grade on each team and its blue talent level.

Last night, while scanning the Internet, I ran across new odds from Vegas that have changed from February. I marvel at how a few men in Vegas can come so close to predicting the outcome of games in terms of the spread. In the offseason, the Vegas boys post odds before the draft and before all the moves are made in free agency.

Then this month, they re-post them and make adjustments based on two indicators: improvement of the teams in terms of players and how much action each team receives. (Remember season three of “The Sopranos,” in an episode called “Fortunate Son,” in which Christopher forgot to lay off odds, thus resulting in owing Paulie a ton of money?)

How are things shaking down in Vegas this preseason?

Side note: I’m not a gambler and have never placed a bet on anything. In fact, I grew up 12 miles south of Atlantic City and never had the urge to gamble—in cards or football. I’m only using these odds as another evaluation of teams’ offseason moves, not to entice betting.

At this time last year, not many would have predicted a Super Bowl for the Arizona Cardinals, so there’s always room for error in these numbers. But my purpose is to determine, based on the offseason, who has impressed the Vegas boys.

Teams that have impressed (first column is February odds, second column is current odds):

Minnesota                             22/1     15/1
Chicago                                28/1     16/1
San Francisco                       40/1     35/1
Houston                                40/1     30/1
Buffalo                                  50/1      30/1
Seattle                                  60/1     40/1
Cleveland                              60/1      50/1
Kansas City                         100/1     40/1
Oakland                               100/1     75/1
St. Louis                              100/1     80/1
Detroit                                  150/1    100/1

Teams that haven’t impressed (anything above a two-point swing went in this group):

Indianapolis                            8/1      11/1
Baltimore                               11/1     15/1
Arizona                                  15/1     20/1
Carolina                                 12/1     16/1
Tennessee                             12/1     16/1
Miami                                    25/1     28/1
N.Y. Jets                               28/1     35/1
Jacksonville                            30/1     38/1
Denver                                    35/1    40/1
Tampa Bay                             35/1     40/1

Teams that stayed the same (two-point swing or below; this is the Christopher Moltisanti group):

New England                            6/1       4/1
Dallas                                      9/1      11/1
Pittsburgh                                7/1      15/2
N.Y. Giants                              8/1       9/1
San Diego                               14/1      12/1
Philadelphia                            12/1      11/1
Atlanta                                   16/1       18/1
Green Bay                              20/1      18/1
New Orleans                           18/1      20/1
Washington                            25/1      25/1
Cincinnati                               75/1      75/1

So what does all this mean? Here are a few observations:

Vegas and all other gamblers were not impressed with the Redskins’ signing of Albert Haynesworth, or all the money they spent this past offseason, as their odds didn't move.

For all that Philly have done this offseason, it didn’t seem to impress anyone who places bets.

Losing Terrell Owens did not affect the Cowboys much, but it helped the Bills (I wonder if the Vegas boys watched the Bills play on Saturday night).

The Chiefs moved significantly based on the addition of a new GM, new coach, and new QB.

The Cutler trade made a splash in Sin City. Jay Cutler made the Bears move and made the Broncos drop. But for me, I think the Broncos are going to be much better this year than many expect.

Minnesota’s odds went down seven points, before they signed the ageless wonder. I wonder what they think now. Matt Bowen’s Texans made a huge swing of 10 points. Vegas has joined Mr. Bowen in his admiration of the Texans.

Raiders, Lions and Rams made moves, but probably not enough to excite anyone.

The Jets (sorry, Yahoo Dave) have not impressed anyone with their moves on and off the field. I think the boys in Vegas see this as a rebuilding year, as I do.

The Packers stayed the same, according to Vegas, but based on their first two preseason games, they look vastly improved. The Patriots’ two-point shift is dramatic considering how low they were to start.

Something has happen to impress odds-makers about the Browns; not sure what it could be as I’ve been more impressed with the Bengals this summer.

Am I missing something? Let me know. This afternoon, I’ll recap the almost blues after taking plenty of notes on your comments over the weekend.

Follow me on Twitter: michaelombardi

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