UFC Fight Night 63: Main Card Betting Odds and Predictions
At UFC Fight Night 63, Chad Mendes and Ricardo Lamas will both look to take one step closer to a potential rematch with Jose Aldo.
In October, Mendes battled to a decision loss in a second clash with Aldo. Having already lost to the Brazilian champion twice, Mendes is going to have a tough time earning a third meeting with Aldo. With that said, Mendes did give Aldo one of his toughest challenges ever at UFC 179.
Since losing to Aldo in February 2014, Lamas has rebounded with two straight wins. If he can make it three in a row against Mendes, Lamas would be one of the top candidates for a shot at the 145-pound belt, especially if Aldo is dethroned by Conor McGregor in July.
With UFC Fight Night 63 approaching, here is a look at current betting odds and predictions for every main card matchup.
Dustin Poirier (-190) vs. Diego Ferreira (+155)
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Following a loss to McGregor in his most recent outing, Dustin Poirier has opted to return to the lightweight division, where he hasn't competed since his WEC days. While Poirier was a legitimate contender at 145 pounds, he never reached that level at 155 pounds, so he'll have to prove himself all over again.
After going undefeated in his first 11 MMA bouts, Diego Ferreira was beaten by Beneil Dariush at UFC 179. Despite the setback, Ferreira is being given an opportunity to rebound in a huge way against a big-name opponent in Poirier.
Poirier has more weapons than Ferreira, but the Brazilian is an excellent grappler and could cause problems stylistically. Defensive wrestling has been one of Poirier's bigger weaknesses and moving up in weight isn't likely to help that. So if Ferreira can get this fight to the ground, there's a good chance he'll be able to mount an upset.
Prediction: Ferreira
Play: 1 percent bankroll on Ferreira
Clay Guida (-250) vs. Robbie Peralta (+195)
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Clay Guida has been good enough to be considered a contender at 145 pounds. However, alternating wins and losses over his past five outings, The Carpenter hasn't built enough momentum to be considered a legitimate title threat.
Despite losing to Thiago Tavares in his latest appearance, Robbie Peralta is being given a crack at a ranked featherweight. The matchup seems designed to build Guida back up rather than to get Peralta back on track, though.
Guida poses some of the same problems to Peralta that Tavares did. The veteran should be able to get this fight to the ground and grind out a win.
Prediction: Guida
Play: 2 percent bankroll on Guida
Julianna Pena (-275) vs. Milana Dudieva (+215)
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She's been out for 16 months, but Julianna Pena has the potential to become a title threat in the 135-pound class. Pena made it through a tough field to win The Ultimate Fighter 18 and only has room to grow at 25 years old.
Milana Dudieva picked up a win over Elizabeth Phillips in her UFC debut. However, she wasn't overly impressive in the split-decision victory.
Rust is a concern, but Pena is the more talented fighter in this matchup. She should win with her wrestling.
Prediction: Pena
Play: 1 percent bankroll on Pena
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Michael Chiesa (-375) vs. Mitch Clarke (+285)
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In his last appearance, Michael Chiesa was looking good against a tough Joe Lauzon before a cut ended his night early. With a 4-1 UFC record prior to that bout, Chiesa was on his way to title contention.
Coming off of a win over a now-ranked Al Iaquinta, Mitch Clarke is one of the more underrated competitors in the lightweight division. He's a solid grappler and should be able to at least match Chiesa on the ground.
There's a good chance grappling cancels out in this matchup. If it does come down to striking, an edge goes to Chiesa, who has been showing steady improvement in that area. With that said, this will be much closer than the odds suggest.
Prediction: Chiesa
Play: Pass
Jorge Masvidal (-135) vs. Al Iaquinta (+105)
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Since suffering his lone UFC loss against Rustam Khabilov, Jorge Masvidal has rebounded with three straight wins. The former Strikeforce title challenger has flown under the radar, but he's definitely capable of making a run at the lightweight belt.
With a loss to Mitch Clarke less than 12 months ago, nobody could have foreseen that Al Iaquinta would be among the top 15 lightweights this soon. However, he has scored three straight knockout wins and now has a chance to solidify his place as a contender at 155 pounds.
Ranked No. 14 and No. 15 in the lightweight division, Masvidal and Iaquinta are very evenly matched. Both are well-rounded fighters, but Masvidal's reach advantage and underrated wrestling should allow him to edge Iaquinta on the scorecards.
Prediction: Masvidal
Play: 1 percent bankroll on Masvidal
Chad Mendes (-450) vs. Ricardo Lamas (+325)
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The title has eluded him, but Mendes has nearly proven he's the second best 145-pounder in the world behind Aldo. Only Aldo has been able to beat Mendes in the Team Alpha Male member's nine UFC appearances.
Lamas didn't come close to dethroning Aldo, but he looked better than ever in his latest outing. The Bully stopped a surging Dennis Bermudez in the opening round to show he is still one of the best in the featherweight division.
Mendes is a deserving favorite, but Lamas is not the underdog that the odds make him out to be in this matchup. He matches up pretty well with Mendes in every area. Though I don't see Lamas coming away with the win, this bout will be closely contested.
Prediction: Mendes
Play: Pass
Odds courtesy of Odds Shark.
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