NCAA Tournament 2015: Championship Odds for Remaining Teams on Bracket

By the time the Final Four typically rolls around, the cream has risen to the top of the college basketball world and there aren’t many interesting betting scenarios remaining. Sure, there may be one team that has slightly better odds than the others, but there rarely is any separation between the four squads.

That is what makes the 2015 NCAA tournament so interesting at this point.

Even with three No. 1 seeds still alive, there is a dominant favorite in the undefeated Kentucky Wildcats and an underdog story in the No. 7 seed Michigan State Spartans. Michigan State may be one of the best programs in the country with one of the best coaches to ever do it, but it is still a significant underdog compared to the other three teams.

Here is a look at the championship odds for each remaining squad entering the Final Four, per Odds Shark, as of Wednesday at 3 p.m. ET.

Team	Odds
Kentucky Wildcats	-150
Duke Blue Devils	+300
Wisconsin Badgers	+400
Michigan State Spartans	+800

Intriguing Final Four Matchups

Kentucky’s Bigs vs. Wisconsin’s Bigs

There is no secret formula to beat Kentucky, otherwise someone would have figured it out and done it by now.

The Wildcats have beaten teams that drilled plenty of three-pointers on offense. The Wildcats have beaten teams that play stifling defense. In fact, the Wildcats have beaten everyone who dared challenge them.

However, Notre Dame provided something of a blueprint that Wisconsin may be able to expand on in the Final Four. The Fighting Irish often had four or five guys on the court together who could shoot from the perimeter and spaced the floor to create opportunities to crash the offensive glass against Kentucky’s monster big guys.

That led to Zach Auguste having the game of his life with 20 points and nine rebounds, six of which were on the offensive end, and Notre Dame nearly pulling off a shocker in the Elite Eight.

Mark J. Terrill/Associated Press

The scary thing for Kentucky is that the Badgers will also use five guys on the court at once who can space the floor and hit three-pointers. Big men Frank Kaminsky and Nigel Hayes are more than capable of drilling shots from deep, and Sam Dekker is fresh off a performance against Arizona that looked like he was on fire in NBA Jam.

It’s not just that everyone on Wisconsin can shoot, though, that makes its offense dangerous. Kaminsky in particular can put the ball on the floor, pass out of double teams, score on the low blocks and hit those outside looks. He will force Karl-Anthony Towns, Willie Cauley-Stein or whoever guards him to expend plenty of energy on the defensive side, which could impact Kentucky’s offense. 

Tony Dejak/Associated Press

ESPN’s Myron Medcalf pointed out Kaminsky’s versatility during Wisconsin’s Elite Eight win:

This is a showdown between the No. 1 offense and the No. 1 defense in Ken Pomeroy’s advanced-metrics rankings, and it all starts with the bigs. Towns, Cauley-Stein, Dakari Johnson and even Trey Lyles protect the rim better than anyone in the country, but Kaminsky, Hayes and Dekker will force them to move outside of the paint and cover more ground than they are accustomed to on a nightly basis. 

It is the classic “something has to give” narrative, and it will be fascinating to watch unfold.

Justise Winslow vs. Michigan State 

Charlie Riedel/Associated Press

Justise Winslow has been one of Duke’s best players all season, but he has embraced the spotlight of the NCAA tournament and is playing like a future lottery pick. Just look at his numbers in the last three rounds:

Round	Opponent	Points	Assists	Rebounds	Blocks	Steals
Round of 32	San Diego State	13	5	12	3	4
Sweet 16	Utah	21	0	10	2	1
Elite Eight	Gonzaga	16	1	5	1	1

Jahlil Okafor may be the headline name on Duke’s roster, but Winslow is the most interesting matchup against Michigan State. The Spartans may be hard-pressed to find someone to cover him for 40 minutes considering Denzel Valentine, Gavin Schilling and Matt Costello probably aren’t athletic enough and Travis Trice isn’t big enough.

Branden Dawson could theoretically stay with Winslow, but that would pull Michigan State’s best rebounder away from the rim on too many plays.

Basically, Winslow is a matchup nightmare who is playing some of his best basketball of the season in the Big Dance. Michigan State needs to find a way to slow him down because Okafor will likely get his points as well.

What’s more, Winslow is the ultimate defensive wild card for Mike Krzyzewski.

Coach K can unleash Winslow on virtually any player on the Michigan State roster. Winslow is fast enough to keep up with guards and strong and tall enough (6’6”) to handle the Spartan forwards. Whichever player has a hot hand early for Michigan State will likely find Winslow serving as a metaphorical blanket in the second half. 

Okafor commented on Winslow’s versatility, per Zach Helfand of The Los Angeles Times: "He does everything. Steals, blocks, obviously he can score. He can defend pretty much one through four. Five if necessary."

Tom Pennington/Getty Images

Winslow is the rare talent who can control the game on both sides of the floor and handle nearly any matchup thrown his way. Michigan State’s impressive run from the middle of the Big Ten to a No. 7 seed to the Final Four will come to an end Saturday unless it can find a way to neutralize Duke’s matchup nightmare.

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