Updated Odds for NASCAR Drivers to Make the 2015 Chase
Six races into the season, five drivers have qualified for the Chase. With 11 spots left to fill and only 20 races in which to qualify, the intensity promises to increase.
It’s only April, but with the five drivers in the can without the pressure that comes along with making the playoffs, that frees them just to drive and let it rip.
There’s the precipitous fall of Ryan Newman, the rise of Danica Patrick and the stagnation of Carl Edwards.
The odds for this piece were generated by the author with special focus on where drivers stand in the Chase today and their overall pedigree for reaching the postseason. These drivers have not qualified for the Chase yet.
Read on to see how they measure up.
Danica Patrick: 50-1
1 of 10
In 15th place in the Chase grid sits Danica Patrick. She’s been middle-of-the-pack through the first six races with the exception of her great run up to seventh place at Martinsville.
Patrick avoided trouble during wrecks and made heady moves on the inside of drivers. It was her second-best finish in her young NASCAR career. She finished ahead of Kevin Harvick in this race.
That top 10 gave her five for her career and tied her with Janet Guthrie as the most ever by a female NASCAR driver.
"I was definitely not happy on the radio to some degree [early in the race]," Patrick said to Mike Hembree of USA Today. "There was general disaster going on. I said before the race started that we can be down but we can still come back. We can keep digging and find something."
Patrick will be in an all-out struggle to make the Chase based on points. Her average start is 20th, and her average finish is 19.3. Can she get up and win one of these races? That’s the question. She’ll have to in order to get into the Chase.
Maybe tying Guthrie will be the breakthrough she needs to ride up top in these races.
Paul Menard: 30-1
2 of 10
With the hit taken by Ryan Newman (more on that later), Paul Menard stands tallest in the Richard Childress garage right now. Menard is in sixth place in the Chase, but how long will he stay there? That’s awfully high in the standings for someone who doesn’t inspire the kind of confidence Newman would.
Menard has had decent qualifying efforts, starting in the top 15 three times. He has one top five and three top 15s and finished on the lead lap in five of the six races to date.
Menard “won” the pole for NASCAR’s exhibition Sprint Unlimited Race. It’s something, right?
Now that Newman has to work his way back up from 26th in the Chase standings after being docked 75 points (again, more on that later), it’s up to Menard to hold his spot in the Chase as long as possible.
Greg Biffle: 30-1
3 of 10
Ever since that top 10 in the Daytona 500, it’s all been downhill for Greg Biffle.
After finishing 10th in the 500, he finished 25th, 14th, 27th, 32nd and 19th. That’s not getting it done. His average finish is worse than his average start, which means he’s not finishing these races.
Roush Fenway Racing is hurting with the loss of Carl Edwards, so Biffle stuck around to lead the beleaguered team. He told Jeff Owens of the Sporting News:
"When the stock is at its lowest price it’s been at, sometimes that’s the opportunity. It’s going to go up. Logic says it’s going to go up. So I wrestled with it and thought long and hard about it and said, I want to be the guy that brings this organization back. I could jump ship right now, and I decided I didn’t want to do that. I was going to give it another opportunity.
"
Fortunately for Biffle, he heads to Texas, where he has won twice. He also made the Chase a year ago on points.
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Jamie McMurray: 25-1
4 of 10
Jamie McMurray finished second to Harvick at Phoenix, which is saying something.
Twice this season McMurray has started third, so he has proved so far that he can get a fast car through qualifying. He has finished as high as second and as low as 40th. He’s all over the place, but he’s a proven winner who has a strong shot at reaching the Chase.
McMurray had a chance to beat Harvick in Phoenix but didn’t want to risk a wreck in order to do it.
“When we drove into Turn 1, I’m like, ‘I’m going to go like hell,’ and hope I could clear him,” McMurray said on NASCARTalk.com. “But the car just didn’t seem like it had the grip you needed, and I didn’t want to slide up and wipe everybody out. Did I think I had a chance? Yeah, but you just don’t ever know what you’re going to get when you get to the end.”
McMurray is a seven-time winner with triumphs at forthcoming tracks like Talladega, Charlotte Daytona and Indianapolis.
Ryan Newman: 20-1
5 of 10
Ryan Newman’s bid to make the Chase just got a whole lot harder.
NASCAR docked Newman 75 points after a post-race tire audit found Newman’s team had committed a P5-level infraction. The ruling marks one of the stiffest penalties to date.
He went from sixth in the Chase grid to 26th overall; for a driver who hasn’t won a race since the Brickyard 400 in 2013, that's bad news.
Newman pointed his way into the Chase last year and came within a car length of winning the entire Chase behind Kevin Harvick. Newman ground his way into the playoffs and still managed to reach Homestead with a shot at winning the Cup.
Richard Childress Racing said in a release:
"We understand the seriousness of the penalty. In fact, RCR has been one of the most outspoken opponents against 'tire bleeding' since the rumors began to surface last season. Once NASCAR provides us with the specific details of the infraction we will conduct a further internal investigation, and evaluate our options for an appeal.
"
Newman had 180 Cup points and now has 105. The way he drives he can creep his way back into the thick of the Chase, but he effectively lost two-and-half races' worth of points.
He should be able to qualify based on his pedigree, but this made it all the more difficult.
Carl Edwards: 10-1
6 of 10
Ever since Brad Keselowski put a hex on Carl Edwards by calling him the best driver in NASCAR, Edwards hasn’t even scored a top 10.
His best finish for his new digs is 12 at Atlanta. His hopes, to this point, have been tempered, certainly since he shared this sentiment back in December to NASCARTalk.com: "I plan on winning 10 races and the championship."
Say what?
"People will be like, ‘Ah, he’s crazy.’ But if we don’t win the championship, it will not be a success," he said. "Everyone’s putting in these resources to win a championship, and that’s what we’re going to do.”
Now, that technically can happen. He’s only six races into the season, and he’s driving like a mid-packer. It could be that he’s putting extra pressure on himself to perform given that he’s with a new team.
Since Denny Hamlin won at Martinsville, that means Joe Gibbs Racing is assured of at least one car in the Chase. All Edwards has to do is follow suit, and there are plenty of tracks where he can prove his worth.
Kurt Busch: 8-1
7 of 10
Kurt Busch could be a sleeper pick to win the entire Cup. It sounds silly at first glance, but aside from his teammate Kevin Harvick and maybe Joey Logano, who categorically defeats Busch?
Since Busch’s return to NASCAR after serving a three-race suspension for alleged domestic abuse, the No. 41 car has two top fives and has led 86 laps. That’s 50 more laps than Dale Earnhardt Jr.
"It was good just to get back in the seat and shake hands with all the guys," Busch said in Tom Jensen’s FoxSports.com story. "Having the support of Stewart-Haas it's been, like family. Then to see the other crew members that I know and some that I don't know who shake my hand and say, 'Welcome back.' It feels good."
Busch is Chase eligible and is driving like he hadn’t missed a lap. He’ll be a force to contend with going forward.
Matt Kenseth: 7-1
8 of 10
Matt Kenseth, the stalwart, even-keeled, Joe Gibbs-a-tron driver has been in a much-publicized slump. It’s no secret that he hasn’t won a race since that seven-win 2013 season.
Kenseth still has a great pit crew and contends every week. He just hasn’t had the elite speed under the hood that the Hendrick engines produce. Seeing Denny Hamlin win at Martinsville could be a positive sign of things to come for the No. 20 car.
"Twice he went from fourth to first on pit road during a caution. He went from third to first another time on pit road during a caution.
He never had a chance to take the lead during his final pit stop because his left axle broke. Still, Kenseth’s pit crew is worth watching because pit road is so critical for track position. Had Kenseth not had his axle problem, he could have been in a position to win and earn a Chase spot. For Toyota, winning has been difficult in the last year.
"
He has two top fives and three top 10s this year and heads to Texas, where he has won twice before.
Jeff Gordon: 5-1
9 of 10
Jeff Gordon’s farewell tour hasn’t been kind. With every honorary trophy or message it appears he’s being shoved not just out of racing but out of the Chase.
After six races Gordon finally cracked into the Chase grid at No. 16. Only once this year has he finished better than his starting position, and that was in Las Vegas when he started 10th and finished ninth.
Gordon was poised to get that first win of the season at Martinsville—his ninth at the famed paperclip oval—but a speeding penalty on pit road vaulted him from first to worst. He said in Jay Pennell’s FoxSports.com’s story:
"It's one thing when you don't feel like you have the car underneath you or you're missing something, but when it's on you—whether it's a pit crew guy, a crew chief or the driver—it hurts. That's the way I feel right now. I feel pain because we had a golden opportunity right there and I ruined it for us. We're going to get it all together. We just haven't been clicking all at one time. As hard as everybody work, gosh, I just hated that I made that mistake.
"
Despite the mistake, it was Gordon’s third straight top 10 after starting the season with 33rd- and 41st-place finishes.
He and Earnhardt are heavy favorites to reach the Chase.
Dale Earnhardt Jr.: 4-1
10 of 10
Even with three top fives and four top 10s, Dale Earnhardt Jr. sits at eighth place in the Chase grid. His problem is that he has only led 36 laps in six races—four if you draw a line through the Daytona 500.
It was especially meaningful to see Earnhardt get back out onto the track at Martinsville even though he suffered a car-destroying wreck. The result was something that looked like a dune buggy on growth hormone, but it worked.
Earnhardt said on his podcast (h/t NASCARTalk.com):
"I’ve had times when we tore the car and basically just packed it in and went home. You don’t really know it at the time, but once you get home and you’re bumming around the rest of the week about how you finished, there’s a part of you that feels a lot of remorse for not trying to do everything you could and run every lap you could run and fight for every position you could fight for. That’s a terrible feeling.
"
That type of fight will earn him a spot in the Chase. Getting those extra few points by staying out there could be the difference between racing for pride and racing for a championship come September.
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