UFC Fight Night 63: A Complete Guide to the Full Fight Card
Will the slipper fit?
With March Madness at its apex, there's a lot of fairy godmother dust in the air right now at the Patriot Center in Fairfax, Virginia. Get your Claritin ready, because it is downright lousy with magic dust.
If you're not familiar, the Patriot Center is where a certain team by the name of George Mason plays its basketball. You may remember George Mason from its unlikely Final Four run back in 2006.
With that history lying thick like dogwood pollen on the Virginia grass, the UFC comes to this Washington suburb Saturday for Fight Night 63.
Given the pedigree of the building's regular tenants and the time of the year, does this mean there could be a Cinderella story in the offing for fight fans?
No. Well, probably not. It's looking a little chalky out there, but hey, anything can happen, and this 10-fight card is looking pretty solid, as cable fight cards go these days.
In the main event, streaking featherweights Chad Mendes and Ricardo Lamas do battle for a shot at whoever emerges with the belt between Conor McGregor and Jose Aldo when they fight this summer.
There are interesting fighters, young and old, well-known and less so, and intriguing style clashes up and down the card. And the event itself is interesting, in that it will air in the afternoon and entirely on Fox Sports 1. We'll see how that plays with old Mr. TV Ratings.
Take this opportunity to get yourself acquainted. Slip on the slipper. What follows are information capsules, predictions and viewing coordinates for every fight on the card.
Are you feeling the magic? Let's get it on.
Ron Stallings vs. Justin Jones
1 of 10
Division: Middleweight
Records: Justin Jones (3-1), Ron Stallings (12-7)
See it on: Fox Sports 1
Maybe it was just me, but I thought Justin Jones turned in a pretty nice performance in his UFC debut.
Yes, it was a loss to Corey Anderson, but it was a back-and-forth contest, with Jones—who took the fight on short notice and fought at a heavier weight class than normal—outperforming Anderson in the standup phase and landing some heavy blows in the process.
I think he'll be able to do similar things against Stallings, only this time emerging on the good side of the ledger with the benefit of a full camp and fighting in his normal division. Expect a slugfest to start the card.
Prediction: Jones, unanimous decision
Shamil Abdurakhimov vs. Timothy Johnson
2 of 10Division: Heavyweight
Records: Shamil Abdurakhimov (15-2), Timothy Johnson (8-1)
See it on: Fox Sports 1
Abdurakhimov looks a little like a Russian version of Tim Sylvia.
Luckily, he doesn't fight much like him, at least judging by what I can glean from grainy YouTube videos. He also has 11 victories by stoppage.
True, Johnson has all eight of his wins by stoppage—most recently a first-round knockout of Travis Wiuff—but I'm sticking by my rule of picking the Russian whenever there's a doubt.
Prediction: Abdurakhimov, unanimous decision
Gray Maynard vs. Alexander Yakovlev
3 of 10
Division: Lightweight
Records: Gray Maynard (11-4-1), Alexander Yakovlev (21-6-1)
See it on: Fox Sports 1
Hard to believe Maynard is now an undercard fighter.
Believe it, though. Maynard has lost three straight and four of five. At age 35 and with injuries piling up, Maynard is going in the wrong direction.
Yakovlev has parlayed an upset of Paul Daley into a UFC career, but that UFC career isn't going too well. So far, he's been decisioned by Demian Maia and Nico Musoke in turn.
It should happen again. Emphasis on "should." Yakovlev doesn't appear to have the power or acumen to take advantage of Maynard's failing jawline. If Maynard can't knock this groove ball out of the park, it might be time to say good-bye.
Prediction: Maynard, unanimous decision
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Liz Carmouche vs. Lauren Murphy
4 of 10
Division: Women's bantamweight
Records: Lauren Murphy (8-1), Liz Carmouche (9-5)
See it on: Fox Sports 1
The prelim main event is always designed to be interesting. Unless, it seems, it's one of those times when the prelims and main card are on the same channel, making the difference a cosmetic one at the most.
What I'm saying is, this fight may not be exciting. It's one of those feast-or-famine types. They'll either spend the rounds lying on top of each other or engaging in 15 minutes of fistic careening. My guess is the former, but either way I like the battle-tested Carmouche to emerge and do just enough damage to Murphy in the clinch.
Prediction: Carmouche, unanimous decision
Dustin Poirier vs. Carlos Diego Ferreira
5 of 10
Division: Lightweight
Records: Dustin Poirier (16-4), Carlos Diego Ferreira (11-1)
See it on: Fox Sports 1
Poirier is extremely talented in all modes of fighting. He was doing pretty well as a featherweight, having gone 8-3 there, with his only losses coming to Chan Sung Jung, Cub Swanson and Conor McGregor.
Now, though, for the first time in his UFC career, he'll move up to lightweight. It might leave him with more energy thanks to an easier weight cut, but I don't see how that will improve a key weakness for Poirier.
Sometimes, he tends to get a little sloppy. That could play right into the hands of the underdog.
Ferreira has heavy punching power and a dangerous, active submission game. The sloppier it gets, either through wild exchanges or ground scrambles, the better Ferreira's chances to close the curtain with a single jerk.
Poirier will have better nights at lightweight, but his return will not be a happy one. Sound the upset alarms.
Prediction: Ferreira, submission, Round 2
Clay Guida vs. Robbie Peralta
6 of 10
Division: Featherweight
Records: Clay Guida (31-15), Robbie Peralta (18-5)
See it on: Fox Sports 1
The emperor wears no clothes. And Clay Guida is the emperor.
It arguably started in earnest back in 2012, when he dropped a snoozer split decision to Gray Maynard. Ever since, despite the wild hair and high-energy ring entrances and general fan affability, he has been steadily revealed as a low-output grinder with a bite that doesn't quite match his bark.
But he still has enough to dispatch Peralta, a slugger who doesn't have an amazing ground game and probably won't be able to keep Guida from mashing him against the fence for extended periods of time. He'll have diamonds on his back when the final horn sounds.
Prediction: Guida, unanimous decision
Julianna Pena vs. Milana Dudieva
7 of 10Division: Women's bantamweight
Records: Julianna Pena (5-2), Milana Dudieva (11-3)
See it on: Fox Sports 1
Pena attracted plenty of attention—not all of it the doting sort—after standing out on and then winning Season 18 of The Ultimate Fighter. She seemed destined for high-profile matchups sooner rather than later.
Then one day, something—perhaps something fishy—happened to Pena during training. In one catastrophic fall, she tore her right ACL, MCL, LCL and meniscus. I think that's all of them.
More than two years later, here she is, taking on Dudieva, a Russian fighting for the second time in the UFC. Dudieva is a judo and sambo player who looks early and often for submissions.
Pena has an advantage in power and athleticism, but her striking technique is not what you might call fluid, and her cage rust won't help that. Nevertheless, this looks like a pretty friendly matchup for her, and her size should carry the day and prevent Dudieva from leveraging that submission game.
Prediction: Pena, unanimous decision
Michael Chiesa vs. Mitch Clarke
8 of 10
Division: Lightweight
Records: Michael Chiesa (11-2), Mitch Clarke (11-2)
See it on: Fox Sports 1
Michael Chiesa is far more than the archetypal front man of a doom metal band. He's also a darn serviceable UFC lightweight.
He hasn't shown he can hang with the higher echelon, but that shouldn't matter much against Mitch Clarke. Sorry, Mitch.
But Mitch knows it's true. Mitch doesn't deal in half-truths, I would like to think. Mitch knows that in grinding out John Maguire and then stunning Al Iaquinta with the hail-Mary-chokeout, Mitch has probably already reached his high-water mark.
And now, the wave recedes, back to the undercard from whence he came.
Clarke probably does have a striking advantage, with Chiesa doing little more than lunging in for big hooks. Both men know how to grapple, and neither will go quietly in any fight. I think Chiesa will ultimately win a close one, using his strength and wily scramble game (and maybe a big bomb or two) to sway the judges' scorecards.
Prediction: Chiesa, unanimous decision
Jorge Masvidal vs. Al Iaquinta
9 of 10
Division: Lightweight
Records: Al Iaquinta (11-3-1), Jorge Masvidal (28-8)
See it on: Fox Sports 1
Looking at a fighter's previous opponents is always educational. In Masvidal's case, the most instructive may be the ones he never faced.
Masvidal was originally set to face ex-champ Benson Henderson before the musical chairs of injury reshuffled the deck (and sent Bendo up to welterweight). Masvidal also challenged Donald Cerrone on social media, with Cerrone eagerly accepting.
Those are two of the best lightweights around, and it's a testament to Masvidal that both matchups make sense. Iaquinta makes sense, too; he's an electric fighter on a three-fight win streak. Nevertheless, he appears to be a bit out of his depth in this one.
Iaquinta loves to bang. As such, he'll have the boxer's chance here. He knows how to move, and he knows how to keep would-be grapplers at bay with heavy counterstrikes and a general slipperiness.
Masvidal doesn't shy away from a scrap, but his bread and butter is cage intelligence, toughness and his clinch and ground games.
Masvidal may be able to use a four-inch reach advantage (74" to Iaquinta's 70", per FightMetric.com) to crack Iaquinta and get inside. There's certainly not a great chance that Iaquinta will be able to outstrike or just out-tough Masvidal. By the same token, Iaquinta will be harder to pin against the fence than James Krause, Masvidal's previous opponent, but here's guessing it still happens sooner or later. When it does happen, you'll know that the fight is in Masvidal's world.
Prediction: Masvidal, unanimous decision
Chad Mendes vs. Ricardo Lamas
10 of 10
Division: Featherweight
Records: Chad Mendes (16-2), Ricardo Lamas (15-3)
See it on: Fox Sports 1
These two fighters are a lot alike. There's just a little more to like in Mendes' corner.
Mendes has never been taken down in the UFC. That's nine contests. And that doesn't bode well for Lamas, whose game is predicated to such a large extent off takedowns and ground-and-pound.
There's also the striking. As have many members of Team Alpha Male, Mendes has gotten a lot better in the standup phase. He actually tagged champ Jose Aldo quite a few times in their title match, and it unveiled Mendes as a fighter in full, more than just another College Wrestler Ken.
Speaking of things Mendes proved in the Aldo fight, he showed that the only featherweight who can beat him right now is probably Aldo. That goes for Lamas and anyone else (Conor McGregor wants no part of him, I'm sure).
Lamas, 32, is three years older than Mendes. And that sounds about right. Mendes has about three years' worth of athleticism on his senior in this case. Lamas is a veteran and tough as nails, and he'll get his licks in. If this goes to the ground, he may be able to cause enough chaos to thrive and inflict substantial damage.
But in the end, Mendes is just too fast, too strong and too good.
Prediction: Mendes, unanimous decision
Scott Harris writes about MMA for Bleacher Report. For more stuff like this, follow Scott on Twitter.
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