NCAA Championship 2015: Updated Title Odds Going into Final Four

Thank you, Irish. 

Notre Dame has given the sporting world hope that the final result in Indianapolis next Monday night is not a foregone conclusion. 

This is one of the most stacked Final Fours in recent memory. If you put Duke or this version of Wisconsin in last year's Final Four, either one would have been the favorite. 

But make no mistake, Kentucky still should be the favorite. For the 'Cats to win the title, they'll have to earn every bit of praise they get, as they'll face their two toughest opponents all season in Indy. 

Here's how I'd handicap the chances of each team left. 

Michigan State

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Title Odds: 16-1

The Road Ahead: The Spartans are the heavy underdog this weekend as the only non-No. 1 seed left and with an 0'fer record against the teams remaining. Michigan State lost by 10 to Duke back in November at the Champion's Classic and went 0-2 against Wisconsin this season. 

Reason to Buy: The Spartans are not what they were back in November. This was a team that also lost to Texas Southern in nonconference play, but Tom Izzo has his team playing at a high level in March. We know now that Sparty can beat the elite. They already knocked off ACC champ Virginia, and they were close to upsetting Wisconsin in the Big Ten final. 

Izzo also has the hottest shooter left in the tournament in Travis Trice. If a game comes down to one shot, is there anyone you'd rather have taking it right now than Trice? Maybe Aaron Harrison? But Trice is having the kind of tournament that Shabazz Napier had last year to lead another No. 7 seed to a title. 

Reason to Sell: This isn't 2014. Last year, there was one really good team in college basketball (Florida), but that was probably the only team worthy of the elite tag. And as good a team as those Gators were, they didn't have the caliber of talent we're used to seeing from truly elite college teams. In other words, the 2014 tournament was wide open. 

This Final Four is as stacked as it has been since 2008 when all four No. 1 seeds made it with teams loaded with future pros. Kentucky has the historically dominant defense and perfect record. Wisconsin has two possible lottery picks and the most efficient offense in college basketball. Duke has the most talented player in the country in Jahlil Okafor, while Justise Winslow has been the best all-around player in the tournament and Tyus Jones is a great college point guard. 

For Sparty to win, they might have to pull off a Villanova-vs.-Georgetown kind of performance. Not just once, but twice. 

Will Cut Down the Nets If... Trice stays on fire, Branden Dawson plays the best two games of his career on both ends, Denzel Valentine gets his teammates great shots and Michigan State's D forces both opponents in Indy to go cold. 

Even if Izzo can get his team past Duke, the championship might feel a lot like 2009 when Michigan State was simply overmatched in the final against North Carolina. 

Duke

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Title Odds: 5-1

The Road Ahead: Duke has the easier semifinal game than whichever team ends up winning on the other side. The East was the most wide-open region coming in, and it produced the team with the worst chance to win two more games. That's not to take away anything from the Spartans. They have the talent and are playing like a top-10 team, but the Blue Devils have beaten them once already this year, and it's probably the first time in this tournament that the Spartans are facing a team with better talent than them. 

Reason to Buy: Justise Winslow and Duke's defense. 

Winslow has been the best all-around player in this tournament and a matchup nightmare as a small-ball power forward. 

Listing Duke's defense here seems like it has to be a misprint, but Mike Krzyzewski's D has been Kentucky-like by the numbers in the tournament. The Blue Devils have held their four tourney opponents to 0.87 points per possession, according to KenPom.com's numbers. They've also jumped from 57th to 17th in KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency rankings. 

Reason to Sell: It's hard to believe that the Blue Devils can win the title without Jahlil Okafor being Jahlil Okafor. The big man went cold in Houston, scoring 15 points on 7-of-16 shooting in the two games combined. Utah provided a blueprint for how to double him effectively, and Gonzaga's bigs handled him one-on-one.

The Blue Devils need to feed Okafor early on Saturday night to help him get his confidence back. 

Will Cut Down the Nets If... Okafor is Okafor again, Winslow sustains his brilliance, Duke's shooters (Quinn Cook and Matt Jones) knock down shots and the defense travels to Indy. 

The good news for the Blue Devils is that they don't have to win pretty anymore. For much of the year, they simply relied on their offense kicking it into another gear when the game got tight. The ability to get stops now makes it so they could afford a few bad runs—like they had in the Gonzaga game. 

So maybe, just maybe, if Kentucky-Duke is the final we get, Duke can put out an offensive effort reminiscent of Notre Dame, and when it comes time to get stops, Duke will be able to do what Notre Dame couldn't. 

Wisconsin

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Title Odds: 7-2

The Road Ahead: All Wisconsin has to do is be the first team all year to beat Kentucky, then beat Duke, who won on Wisconsin's home court earlier this year, or beat Michigan State for a third time. 

Reason to Buy: Notre Dame was the best offense that Kentucky had faced all season. The Irish are a great passing team that can spread the floor with perimeter shooters. Well, Wisconsin is even better on offense—the Badgers are the most efficient offense in the country; Notre Dame ranks second—and Bo Ryan's swing offense is also designed to move the ball from side to side and spread the floor with shooters. 

The other big reason to buy Wisconsin stock right now is Sam Dekker. Dekker is a future NBA wing who would be one of the best athletes on Kentucky's roster, and that's saying something. He's not a great shooter, but he's hot right now—coming off scoring 27 points and knocking down five of six threes against Arizona. 

He also played well last year in the loss to Kentucky in the Final Four, scoring 15 points by going 3-of-4 from the field and a perfect 8-of-8 at the free-throw line. Dekker will be a difficult matchup for Trey Lyles, who could have a tough time containing him off the dribble. Put a smaller defender on him, and he can do his work in the post. 

Reason to Sell: It's hard to imagine the Badgers beating the Wildcats without a great game from Frank Kaminsky, and last year Kaminsky virtually disappeared in the Final Four loss to UK. He quietly scored eight points in that game. 

Arizona had some success going right at Kaminsky in the post, and Kentucky will likely try to do the same. It'll be interesting to see if Ryan has Kaminsky guard Karl-Anthony Towns or chooses to give him the Willie Cauley-Stein assignment and puts the shorter Nigel Hayes on Towns. The cross-matches and chess game between Ryan and John Calipari will be fascinating to watch. 

Will Cut Down the Nets If... Dekker and Kaminsky keep playing at a high level and they get a good game out of Bronson Koenig against Kentucky. One key to Notre Dame's success was Jerian Grant's ability to draw attention with his penetration and find cutters. Koenig is not at Grant's level, but he is pretty good off the dribble and had a nice game against UK last year. 

If the Badgers can score like the Irish and contain Towns, they'll have a shot. And one thing to remember if they get Duke again: Dekker was coming off an ankle injury and wasn't himself back in December. If that matchup happens, it could come down to which of the tourney's top two players thus far—Dekker and Justise Winslow—is able to dominate that game. 

Kentucky

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Title Odds: 4-5

The Road Ahead: Some believe that Kentucky had an easy path to the Final Four. Notre Dame obviously proved more difficult than most anticipated. But no one will doubt that if the 'Cats can finish off this perfect season, they will have earned the title based off the strength of this Final Four. Kentucky could end up putting its historic defense to the test against the best offense in college basketball (Wisconsin), the second-best (Notre Dame) and the third-best (Duke). 

Reason to Buy: The way Kentucky finished off Notre Dame. 

What has been most impressive about Kentucky's run is the way this team plays down the stretch of close games. There's no freak-out. No panic. The 'Cats execute and stay true to who they are. To be able to make their final nine shots in the most pressure-packed game of their season to date told us all we needed to know about the resolve of this team. 

It's also worth buying the 'Cats because they've got the best talent, the best defense and Karl-Anthony Towns. 

Reason to Sell: Notre Dame has now offered up the blueprint, and Wisconsin, Duke and Michigan State all have the goods to follow it. Those three teams also have better defenses than the Irish, so if they can get a lead, each one of those teams will have a better chance to hold it. 

Will Cut Down the Nets If... Its defense does what it does and they keep playing through Towns. He will be a tough matchup for all three teams left. Frank Kaminsky has had a hard time guarding legit bigs—see Arizona's Brandon Ashley and Duke's Jahlil Okafor. Okafor is no defensive savant. And the Spartans have bodies to throw at Towns, but I'm not sure any of them could slow him down if he gets his touches. 

As long as the 'Cats keep defending at a high level and keep playing unselfishly, as they have all year, they have the best shot to cut down the nets in Indy.