Mayweather vs. Pacquiao: Bold Predictions for Boxing's Superfight

Floyd Mayweather vs. Manny Pacquiao has been debated for years, with ardent supporters on both sides defending their fighter. May 2 will finally provide answers to all of the questions that have been asked, yet that's still four weeks away. 

Instead of simply waiting for the fight to see what happens, it's fun to explore what could happen. Predictions are often dangerous in sports, because all of them are unpredictable. It's easy to think of athletes as robots, yet the human element always plays an unseen role in the outcome that makes sporting events fun to watch. 

Mayweather vs. Pacquiao is different than any of them because this matchup has been built up, both by the fighters and media, for at least the last five years. They have been the biggest stars in boxing during that time and have reached a point where no other opponent was going to suffice. 

After taking an early look at what Mayweather and Pacquiao have to offer in detail, here are early predictions for what you should expect on May 2. 

Manny Pacquiao Will Be More Aggressive Than Ever

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No one has found the formula to defeat Floyd Mayweather, but one of the least talked-about aspects of his style is the speed has slowed down. He's still ridiculously fast and quick because losing a mile or two off the gas pedal when you started at 100 isn't going to destroy you. 

However, as ESPN's Brian Campbell noted in picking Pacquiao to win, it's been evident that Mayweather isn't the same fighter at 38 that he was at 33:

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When was the last time you saw Mayweather face anyone with Pacquiao's speed or his combination of movement and power? And while Floyd is the master at shutting down traditional offense, Pacquiao still disguises his punches well by throwing from awkward angles. In a fight that I believe is destined to be close on the scorecards, look for the judges to favor Pacquiao's aggressiveness late. 

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Pacquiao loves to attack with his offense, while Mayweather is content to let his opponents beat themselves. That's either going to make for a perfect clash of styles, or Pacquiao trying to get too cute by fighting the way "Money" does in a boring 12-round slog. 

The former scenario is more likely, both because Pacquiao has no reason to change his style and he knows how important this fight is to his legacy. He loves to throw punches as much as anyone, with CompuBox stats showing "Pac-Man" has attempted 1,420 total strikes in his last two fights against Timothy Bradley and Chris Algieri.  

There's also going to be ego in play. While winning would be a big deal for Pacquiao, imagine being able to say he defeated Mayweather by knockout. The only thing worse for Mayweather than being 47-1 would be being 47-1 and tasting the canvas for a 10 count. 

Floyd Mayweather Will Get Knocked Down

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On the topic of tasting canvas, there are reasons to think Mayweather will be knocked off his feet during this fight. Pacquiao throws a lot of punches, as previously illustrated, so who is to say that one of those doesn't find the right spot to make the undefeated champion woozy. 

There's some argument as to whether or not Mayweather has ever been knocked down in a fight, as Diego Morilla of The Ring Magazine wrote:

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Cold stats would tell us that he has hit the deck officially once (against Carlos Hernandez), and unofficially at least once more (against Zab Judah). But the first one, against Hernandez, allegedly happened after Floyd broke his hand and went down in pain after being caught off-balance by a glancing punch (sometimes even I forget how good I am at coming up with excuses!). The other one, against Judah, was clearly a touch of Floyd’s glove on the canvas after being caught with a legitimate punch. It was ruled a slip by referee Richard Steele but could be interpreted as a knockdown, though not exactly a devastating one.

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Zab Judah has made headlines during his training with Mayweather, as there were reports he denied on Twitter about knocking out "Pretty Boy" in a sparring session:

Whether you are of the opinion that Mayweather has really been knocked down in a fight or not, there's no denying the earth-shattering moment it will feel like if Pacquiao does it with no questions. It will be like that moment from the first Rocky movie when Apollo Creed found out Rocky Balboa was a legitimate threat. 

The reason Mayweather hasn't been on the canvas is because his defense is so good. In 2013, prior to Mayweather's fight against Canelo Alvarez, Andrew R. Davis and Joseph Kilduff of ESPN Stats & Info put together some of the numbers from Compubox about how hard he is to hit:

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According to CompuBox, Mayweather's opponents have a 21 percent power punch contact rate, which is the lowest among qualified fighters, and a 17 percent connect rate on all punches, which is the second lowest among qualified fighters. Mayweather's plus-24 plus/minus -- Mayweather lands 41 percent of his punches; his opponents land 17 percent -- is the highest among qualified fighters.

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Following up on that, in his first fight with Marcos Maidana, Mayweather was hit more times (221) than he had ever been before based on CompuBox stats, per Josh Slagter of MLive.com. 

Now, it took Maidana 858 punches to do it, but that also plays into Pacquiao's hands because of how many punches he likes to throw. Eventually Mayweather will be knocked down in a way no one can say wasn't legitimate. 

It makes sense that Pacquiao would be the one to do it. 

Floyd Mayweather Will Win

Despite the expectation that Pacquiao will throw more punches than he ever has and one will knock Mayweather down, Money's undefeated streak will remain intact because there's something he does that no one else can match. 

As great as it is that Pacquiao wants to come out swinging, he's not efficient at all. In those two fights cited earlier, he landed 482 punches (33.9 percent). Pac-Man does have more success with power punches (41.7 percent) than standard jabs, which is a good sign. 

However, Mayweather is so accurate with his striking that it wears down opponents as the fights go on. He attempted 177 power punches in his last fight against Maidana and landed 102 of them, with Slagter noting in a separate report on MLive.com that this was becoming a trend:

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As has become custom over his recent fights, Mayweather had pinpoint accuracy with his power shots. He landed 102 of 177 (58 percent) against Maidana. He landed 65 percent in the first fight and now has had four consecutive fights in which he's landed at least 50 percent of his power shots.

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Since we are in the throes of the NCAA tournament, Mayweather is like the great shooter who accumulates a lot of points without needing many field-goal attempts. Pacquiao is the kind of scorer who can hit a big shot from three-point range often, but is also likely to take 25-plus shots in a game to score 20 points. 

Boxing is a unique sport in that the person who wins the fight overall may not win because of round-by-round scoring. Pacquiao is more likely to make Mayweather look worse when things are over by virtue of throwing more punches, but Mayweather should get the edge because of his ability to make more punches count. 

The fight will be closer than any Mayweather has had before, but the judges will give him a slight edge on the scorecards.