March Madness 2015: Odds, Storylines and Predictions for Sunday's Elite 8 Games

The quick-hitting nature of March Madness continues Sunday.

Back-to-back rounds of the bracket lend to the whole "madness" thing. Even better, it helps bettors who pay attention in a big way, as in-depth research and a relentless work ethic can equal big gains in the odds department.

Believe it or not, Las Vegas consists of humans, too, meaning the opening lines are not always amazing in favor of the house. Bettors are able to exploit those lines if they move in a quick manner.

Digesting the lines and some of the biggest storylines surrounding the matchups is a large part of the process.

2015 Elite Eight Schedule and Odds

Date	Matchup (Odds)	Time (ET)	TV	Pick
Sun., 3/29	No. 4 Louisville vs. No. 7 Michigan State (-3)	2:20 p.m.	CBS	Michigan State
Sun., 3/29	No. 1 Duke (-3) vs. No. 2 Gonzaga	5:05 p.m.	CBS	Duke

Odds courtesy of Odds Shark as of March 29 at 11 a.m. ET.

Sunday's Storylines to Watch

Guard Duel

This might come as a shock, but a battle between two similar teams will come down to a few key players. 

Just how close are Rick Pitino's Louisville Cardinals and Tom Izzo's Michigan State Spartans? They rank next to one another in ESPN's RPI rankings and in KenPom.com's overall rankings.

For Louisville to avoid an "upset" based on seed alone, sophomore guard Terry Rozier needs to put on a show on both ends of the court. He leads the team in scoring (17.2 PPG), but the Cardinals tend to go as he goes.

Case in point—Rozier struggled to find his shot in the second round against 13th-seeded UC Irvine and the Cardinals almost went home early, slipping past by two points while he scored 12.

Northern Iowa was no problem in the second round and neither was NC State in the Sweet 16 thanks to Rozier's 25 and 17 points, respectively. As ESPN Stats & Info points out, his performance in the third round is worth a closer look:

Rozier might need a similar performance to overcome the Spartans, a team ranking 13th in adjusted offensive efficiency at KenPom.com in large part thanks to the guard duo of Denzel Valentine and Travis Trice.

Valentine scored 16 points against Georgia in the second round and 18 against Oklahoma in the Sweet 16. Trice added 15 against Georgia, did all the work in a third-round upset of second-seeded Virginia with 23 points and then scored 24 against Oklahoma.

It's a scary proposition for Louisville, which only has one elite guard to turn to in what figures to be a defensive battle. Izzo's Spartans have two reliable options to lean on and figure to secure the victory late as a result.

Prediction: Michigan State 67, Louisville 65 

Stopping Jahlil Okafor...Might Work

The world isn't ending because Duke freshman sensation Jahlil Okafor scored just six points in the Sweet 16 against fifth-seeded Utah.

In fact, the exact opposite may be the result—the Blue Devils look scarier than ever.

Hats off to the Utes, though, and Jakob Poeltl to be specific—those six points are just the second time all year Okafor has failed to break double digits.

There are two things to take away there:

• It's not going to happen again.
• Duke won without Okafor's help.

What's a Gonzaga Bulldog to do?

Say the Bulldogs put everything they have into halting the freshman. Fine, but Utah just did so and watched as freshman Tyus Jones scored 15 points, Quinn Cook posted 11 and freshman Justise Winslow exploded for a game-high 21.

It's like a freshman game of Russian roulette.

For Mike Krzyzewski, the maturity of his key players is why the Blue Devils are on the warpath once again, as captured by The Associated Press (via ESPN.com):

"

This has been one of my favorite groups. They've been easy to coach and they really get along. There's only a good attitude, only a good attitude and a willingness to learn. Sometimes freshmen don't learn that until they're older. But these guys knew it from the beginning. That's why they've had a special year.

"

What if the Bulldogs come out more balanced on the defensive end of the court? Robert Morris tried—Okafor scored 21. So did San Diego State—Okafor scored 26.

The Bulldogs aren't a bad team by any measure. They have only lost two games on the year and are through the Sweet 16 for the first time in the Mark Few era for good reason.

But the Bulldogs also haven't been tested yet in this bracket. Przemek Karnowski, Domantas Sabonis and Kyle Wiltjer have the size to bang with Okafor down low, but it doesn't solve the same issues Utah faced days earlier.

In the end, the conundrum will cost the Bulldogs the game late.

Prediction: Duke 78, Gonzaga 75

Stats and info are courtesy of ESPN.com unless otherwise specified.