Coronate The Gators National Champs and Everyone Play For Second Place

Like most, going into the season it's hard for me to pick against Florida winning the crystal. Considering their schedule, they would almost have to beat themselves not to go into the SEC championship game undefeated. They play only two teams that come anywhere close to matching them in personnel, LSU and UGA. They get UGA on a "neutral" field, Jacksonville, and have an open date before visiting the Tigers. The Gator schedule follows:

Charleston Southern

Troy

Tennessee

@ Kentucky

@ LSU

Arkansas

@ Miss St

Georgia

Vanderbilt

@ USCe

Florida Intl.

Florida St.

Then I ask myself, how often has the preseason No. 1 played for the championship, much less won it. Using the AP poll as a reference, I discovered the following:

Year.....Preseason No. 1.........Played

1998.....Ohio State............Tennessee beat Florida State

1999.....Florida State..........Florida State beat Virginia Tech

2000..... Nebraska..............Oklahoma beat Florida State

2001......Florida..................Miami beat Nebraska

2002......Miami...................Ohio State beat Miami

2003......Oklahoma..............LSU beat Oklahoma

2004......USCw...................USCw beat Oklahoma

2005......USCw...................Texas beat USCw

2006......Ohio State.............Florida beat Ohio State

2007......USCw....................LSU beat Ohio State

2008......UGA......................Florida beat Oklahoma

As one can see, the preseason No. 1 played in the BCS Championship Game six of 11 years and won only three times. If form holds the Gators have a 55 percent chance of making it to the BCS Championship. If they do, they have a 50 percent chance of winning.

In other words, Florida has a 27.2 percent chance of winning the 2009 national championship. Bear in mind, 27.2% is a much higher probability than any other given BCS team. 

While I find it hard to bet against Florida being the first BCS champ to repeat, I am not running to my bookie and betting my first born, either.