NBA Playoffs: The 10 Most Important Games Left in the Regular Season
We’ve reached the home stretch of the NBA regular season. No team has more than 12 games remaining. Given that just six teams—Atlanta, Cleveland, Chicago, Toronto, Golden State and Memphis—have clinched postseason berths, much of the playoff picture remains firmly up in the air. Here, I take a look at the remaining slate of regular season games and rank the ten most likely to have major playoff implications.
Two quick methodological points: first, for convenience’s sake, the games are ranked in chronological order. My 10th-ranked game is the one scheduled earliest, not the least important of the 10. I did this mostly to make the list easily comprehensible, but also because the importance of each game will reflect the current situation of each team—which, of course, remains very much up for debate.
And second, in order to make this list, games had to involve two legitimate playoff contenders, from the same conference. This excludes games like the upcoming Celtics-Clippers matchup on Sunday, or Oklahoma City’s regular-season finale in Minnesota. These games will have playoff implications of some sort (every win helps and every loss hurts), but I limited myself to games involving two teams competing with one another for playoff position. Let's get started.
10. Friday, 3/27—Dallas Mavericks at San Antonio Spurs
The Western Conference has been a bloodbath all season, and it boasts arguably six legitimate title contenders. Barring a major collapse, both Dallas and San Antonio will make the playoffs; the question is at what seed. Most teams would much, much rather play the Mavericks than face Gregg Popovich and the Spurs, who have made three straight conference finals.
Right now, the Spurs hold a tenuous half-game lead over the Mavericks. If the playoffs began today, San Antonio would receive the No. 6 seed and would face Houston. But if Dallas retakes the sixth spot, the Spurs would play Memphis. Grizzlies fans should be rooting for Dallas to do so: not only does no team want to play San Antonio, but the Grizzlies went 3-1 against the Mavericks this year.
9. Sunday, 3/29—Oklahoma City at Phoenix
The Suns and Pelicans trail the Thunder by just three and 3.5 games, respectively, and Sunday’s game is a critical opportunity for Phoenix. The Thunder have won two of the teams’ three meetings, and a win in this game, they will guarantee themselves a tiebreaker victory (should Phoenix and OKC end the year with identical records).
Somewhat unsurprisingly, OKC’s Russell Westbrook had a triple-double in the teams’ last meeting (39 points, 14 rebounds, 11 assists). But Phoenix eked out an important overtime victory at home, 117-113, and will hope Eric Bledsoe—who was himself just one assist shy of a triple-double—can again fill up the stat sheet.
8 and 7. Tuesday, 3/31—Indiana at Brooklyn; and Wednesday, 4/1—Indiana at Boston
Right now, Indiana and Boston are tied for eighth place in the Eastern Conference and lead the Brooklyn Nets by a half-game. This two-game stretch represents the Pacers’ best chance of separating themselves from the pack. Boston has taken two of three victories against both Indiana and Brooklyn, while the Nets and Pacers have split the season series 1-1 thus far. A loss here would give both Brooklyn and Boston tiebreaker victories over the Pacers, something Pacers fans should keep in mind.
Boston and Indiana trail Miami by just two games. For one thing, it’s hardly out of the question for Miami to miss the playoffs. And for another, it’s worth considering Miami has had some success against Cleveland, who stands to earn the Eastern Conference No. 2 seed. Cleveland would probably rather play any of the Suns/Celtics/Nets trio than Miami (the top-seeded Hawks, on the other hand, struggled to beat none of those three teams).
6. Wednesday, 4/1—Dallas at OKC
Dallas has won two of their three meetings with Oklahoma City. A win in this game would do all sorts of good things for the Mavericks; at the very least, it would directly extend their lead over the eighth-placed Thunder (currently at four games), and Dallas would lose no ground to San Antonio in the fight for sixth place. Plus, it would send OKC backwards—and closer to the lurking Phoenix Suns and New Orleans Pelicans.
This game is particularly interesting for the Western Conference’s top teams. As with San Antonio, most teams would almost certainly rather play Dallas than OKC in the first round (Russell Westbrook has torched Golden State twice this year, although that hardly makes the Warriors unusual). So Grizzlies and Warriors fans may become Mavericks and Thunder fans, respectively, for at least one night.
5. Wednesday, 4/1—LAC at Portland
April Fools’ Day figures to be a pivotal one, at least for the NBA playoff picture. Our third game on April 1 involves two Western Conference teams almost certainly headed to the postseason; as of now, Portland holds a one-game lead over the Los Angeles Clippers and would earn the fourth seed.
This game, like the previous one, is of great interest to the Western Conference’s top teams, particularly Houston. San Antonio trails the Clippers by just a half-game; whichever team loses this matchup will sit squarely in the Spurs’ headlights.
If San Antonio can squeeze into the fifth seed, Houston would play the Clippers or Trail Blazers instead, while the other would play San Antonio. From a Houston standpoint, none of these teams are a particularly attractive first-round opponent, but the Rockets fared better against Portland than the other two.
4. Friday, 4/3—Milwaukee at Boston
Boston trails the Bucks by four games in the standings. A victory in this game, obviously, would help the Celtics’ playoff hopes. But the real story here is for Miami: if Boston earns a win here, Miami—which trails Milwaukee by just two games—will almost certainly be within striking distance of the Bucks.
Frankly, the goal for most teams in the East will be to avoid playing Cleveland for as long as possible; if the Heat can steal the Bucks’ No. 6 seed, they’ll play the Bulls instead of the Cavaliers.
Cleveland fans should probably also hope for a Boston victory here. LeBron James and the Cavaliers struggled this season against James’ former team (the Heat have taken two of three games) and would likely prefer the Bucks. On the other hand, the Heat might actually prefer to finish seventh; they’ve proven their ability to beat Cleveland, and Chicago may be a less attractive opponent.
3. Sunday, 4/5—Golden State at San Antonio
Golden State, with their current 8.5-game lead over the second-place Grizzlies, appear headed for the conference’s top seed. But the second- through seventh-place teams are separated by a mere five games. The Warriors are the toughest team (by record, at least) remaining on the Spurs’ schedule, and a home victory here will be crucial to San Antonio’s chances of earning a seed higher than sixth.
Alternatively, a loss here may knock the Spurs firmly into the seventh seed. That would likely send them to a first-round matchup with Houston or Memphis, both of whom (again) would far prefer to play the Mavericks. The Grizzlies and Rockets will be hoping San Antonio can knock off the league’s top-ranked team.
2. Sunday, 4/5—Chicago at Cleveland
By April 5, the Bulls may have positioned themselves within reach of Cleveland’s No. 2 seed. Given most teams are hoping to avoid the Cavaliers for as long as possible, a second-place finish would benefit Chicago enormously: if the Bulls take the second seed and Cleveland finishes third, the Bulls will avoid the Cavs until at least the conference finals.
What’s more, if Chicago steals the No. 2 seed, that would send Cleveland to a probable second-round matchup with Atlanta, instead of Toronto or Washington. The Cavaliers have struggled against the Hawks (losing three of their four games) and would far prefer the Raptors or Wizards. Cleveland and Chicago both really, really want that second seed; this game will be critical.
1. Saturday 4/11—Memphis at LAC
Finally, Memphis travels to Los Angeles in a game that (by then) may have even greater implications. As I noted before, the Western Conference teams ranked second through eighth are separated by just five games; the Grizzlies and Clippers sit at second and fifth places, respectively. A shakeup in the season’s final three weeks would hardly be surprising, particularly in the Western Conference.
In the absurdly competitive West, no team marks a particularly desirable opponent (although again, most teams would probably prefer Dallas to the other seven). The team most concerned with this game, apart from the two involves, is probably Houston, which sits just 1.5 games behind Memphis for the conference’s second seed. Interestingly, the attractiveness of that second seed depends largely on the rest of the field; Houston, for instance, might prefer a No. 3 seed to a No. 2 seed if the latter involves playing OKC first.
