49ers Draft Stock Watch: 5 Players Rising and Falling on San Francisco's Board
Trent Baalke seems to take pleasure in surprising us.
During his first year as the San Francisco 49ers’ general manager (2011), most draft experts expected him to spend his first-round pick on a quarterback—either Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert or Christian Ponder. The experts did not expect Baalke to draft Aldon Smith, because they thought Smith didn’t fit the Niners’ 3-4 defense.
Baalke drafted Smith.
The next year, most experts expected Baalke to spend his first-round pick on a guard. Instead, he drafted wide receiver A.J. Jenkins. Many fans had never heard of Jenkins. Baalke bragged that he had written Jenkins’ name on a piece of paper and sealed it in an envelope before the draft. Baalke was that certain Jenkins would be available when the 49ers picked, and Baalke couldn’t wait to pick him and shock people.
Jenkins was a shocker, all right.
Just this past year, Baalke spent his first-round pick on another player many fans hadn’t heard of—Jimmie Ward from Northern Illinois University.
Draft experts almost never figure out ahead of time whom Baalke intends to draft. We rarely read reports or even rumors about which players Baalke likes, may like or is considering liking.
So, we guess. And we usually guess wrong.
Despite that, here is my best guess as to which players may be rising or falling on Baalke’s draft board.
Stock Up: Breshad Perriman, Wide Receiver, University of Central Florida
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Anquan Boldin is 34. The 49ers need a No. 1 receiver to replace him in the future.
Until March 25, it seemed all of the future No. 1 receivers in the upcoming draft would be gone by the time the 49ers were on the clock in Round 1. That’s because draft experts expect the top three wide receiver prospects to go in the top 12, and the 49ers pick 15th.
But there may be a fourth future No. 1 receiver in the draft—Breshad Perriman of the University of Central Florida.
Perriman didn’t run the 40-yard dash at the combine—he pulled his hamstring. But he ran a 4.24 at his pro day on March 25, according to Gil Brandt of NFL.com. That’s warp speed. To put Perriman’s 40 time in context, Deion Sanders ran a 4.27.
Perriman plays like a faster version of the Atlanta Falcons’ Roddy White. White went to the Pro Bowl four years in a row during his prime.
Perriman should be available when the 49ers pick in the first round.
Stock Down: Sammie Coates, Wide Receiver, Auburn University
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Coates is not a future No. 1 receiver.
He is a deep threat, a complementary guy, a one-trick pony. He’s fast. He runs deep. Sometimes, he catches the ball. Often, he drops it. He is not a good route-runner. He does not have good hands. He needs a lot of work just to become a solid No. 2 receiver.
Before free agency started, the 49ers needed a receiver like Coates—a speed guy to complement possession receiver Anquan Boldin next season.
So the Niners signed two veteran speed receivers—Torrey Smith and Jerome Simpson. Those two already have done the work Coates needs to do. They are developed and ready to contribute right away.
Coates might have to sit on the bench for years while he learns his craft. Or he might never learn his craft.
Some team will gamble on him, but it doesn't have to be the Niners.
Stock Up: Denzel Perryman, Inside Linebacker, University of Miami
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Another Perryman seems to be climbing the draft boards. This one plays linebacker and spells his last name with a "y," not an "i."
Denzel Perryman is relatively short (5’11”) and relatively slow (4.78 40-yard dash) for an inside linebacker. Short and slow seems to be in fashion these days, though. Teams want the next Chris Borland, and Perryman is similar to the retired 49er.
Like Borland, Perryman is a tough, fearless and instinctive run defender who cannot cover to save his life. Perryman couldn’t cover running backs or tight ends even in college—Miami would take him off the field on passing downs. Whichever NFL team drafts him must do the same.
We know general manager Trent Baalke loved Borland. Baalke might have been Borland’s biggest fan. It stands to reason Baalke also would be a fan of Perryman. Don’t be shocked if the 49ers take Perryman in the second round and platoon him with a safety or cornerback on passing downs.
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Stock Down: Arik Armstead, Defensive End, University of Oregon
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Defensive end became one of the 49ers’ top needs once they cut Ray McDonald.
Experts considered Armstead the best defensive end for a 3-4 defense in the draft and the best possible replacement for McDonald.
Armstead is gigantic—6’7”, 292 pounds—but the combine tests revealed he is slow (5.10 40-yard dash) and weak (24 bench-press reps of 225 pounds) for a 3-4 defensive end.
McDonald could bench-press 225 pounds 33 times in college, according to CBSSports.com, and he ran a 4.88 40-yard dash at the University of Florida’s pro day in 2007.
McDonald is strong enough to push back offensive linemen and fast enough to chase down most quarterbacks and some running backs. He was a third-round pick.
Armstead is too weak and slow to be a dominant run defender like McDonald. For some reason, experts expect teams to draft the Oregon product in the first round or second round. The 49ers should pass on him instead.
Stock Up: Bryce Petty, Quarterback, Baylor University
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Colin Kaepernick may turn out to be the 49ers’ franchise quarterback.
Then again, he may not.
Kaepernick turns 28 next season. If he doesn’t make significant strides or continues to regress, the 49ers may choose not to pay him the $13.9 million they’re scheduled to pay him in 2016. They may choose to simply cut him.
But they can’t cut him until they have a quarterback who can replace him. Ideally, the 49ers would take a quarterback in the draft—someone worth developing who could be the starter after sitting on the bench for a year.
Bryce Petty fits that description. He threw 61 touchdown passes during two seasons in Baylor’s shotgun spread offense. He needs a year to learn to take snaps under center in a pro-style offense.
Jim Harbaugh tutored Petty this past February in Ann Arbor, Michigan, according to Will Brinson of CBSSports.com. Quarterback guru George Whitfield also tutored Petty this offseason, according to Travis Haney of ESPN.com. Petty took snaps under center at his pro day recently, completing 69 of 77 passes, according to Charean Williams of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram.
Petty should be available in the second round if the 49ers want him.
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