2015 NFL Mock Draft: Predictions for Round 1's Most Discounted Prospects

Now that spring is in session, NFL fans finally have a clear grasp of which prospects their favorite teams will snag on draft day. Right?

Nope, not really. Despite an absence of games, public opinion still sways on a daily basis. Besides, how can anyone truly forecast the outcome when the teams still don't even know what to do?

A month of draft juggling remains before the big day, so let's keep trying to peg down the projected outcome with the latest first-round mock draft.

Pick	Team	Selection
1	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Jameis Winston, QB, Florida State
2	Tennessee Titans	Leonard Williams, DE, USC
3	Jacksonville Jaguars	Dante Fowler Jr., DE/OLB, Florida
4	Oakland Raiders	Amari Cooper, WR, Alabama
5	Washington Redskins	Shane Ray, DE/OLB, Missouri
6	New York Jets	Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon
7	Chicago Bears	Danny Shelton, DT, Washington
8	Atlanta Falcons	Randy Gregory, DE/OLB, Nebraska
9	New York Giants	Brandon Scherff, OT, Iowa
10	St. Louis Rams	Andrus Peat, OT, Stanford
11	Minnesota Vikings	Kevin White, WR, West Virginia
12	Cleveland Browns	DeVante Parker, WR, Louisville
13	New Orleans Saints	Vic Beasley, DE/OLB, Clemson
14	Miami Dolphins	Landon Collins, S, Alabama
15	San Francisco 49ers	Shaq Thompson, OLB, Washington
16	Houston Texans	Trae Waynes, CB, Michigan State
17	San Diego Chargers	T.J. Clemmings, OT, Pittsburgh
18	Kansas City Chiefs	La'el Collins, OT, LSU
19	Cleveland Browns (via Buffalo)	Eddie Goldman, DT, Florida State
20	Philadelphia Eagles	Jaelen Strong, WR, Arizona State
21	Cincinnati Bengals	Alvin Dupree, DE/OLB, Kentucky
22	Pittsburgh Steelers	Marcus Peters, CB, Washington
23	Detroit Lions	Malcom Brown, DT, Texas
24	Arizona Cardinals	Arik Armstead, DE/OLB, Oregon
25	Carolina Panthers	Ereck Flowers, OT Miami
26	Baltimore Ravens	Dorial Green-Beckham, WR, Oklahoma
27	Dallas Cowboys	Melvin Gordon, RB, Wisconsin
28	Denver Broncos	Maxx Williams, TE, Minnesota
29	Indianapolis Colts	Jordan Phillips, DT, Oklahoma
30	Green Bay Packers	Benardrick McKinney, ILB, Mississippi State
31	New Orleans Saints (via Seattle)	Eric Kendricks, ILB, UCLA
32	New England Patriots	Cameron Erving, C, Florida State

While executives adhere to different philosophies, many simply search for value anywhere they can find it. They want the best bargains, which often stem from players suffering precipitous falls down the board.

Discounts are easier to corral during the final rounds, but stealing a top-15 player in the 20s offers a tangible gain. These guys are no guarantees to generate such value, but they're in danger of sliding based on evolving public perception.

Randy Gregory, DE/OLB, Nebraska

On Wednesday, NFL.com's Kimberly Jones reported Randy Gregory's admission to testing positive for marijuana in a drug test administered at the NFL Scouting Combine. The Nebraska star, a possible top-five pick, spoke to Jones about how the news could affect his draft stock.

"Am I worried? Yeah, I'm worried," he said. "At the same time, I'm confident. I know I'm going to be all right in the end."

NFL Media analyst Gil Brandt told Rich Kaipust of the Omaha World-Herald that he expects some teams to shy away:

"

It’s disappointing because I think that obviously this will hurt his draft status. It’s disappointing when you know you’re going to be tested and you still partake. I can’t speak for all 32 teams, because you don’t know when some people are going to consider something a bigger offense than others, but I don’t think there’s any questions he’s got some fences to mend.

"

At No. 3, the Jacksonville Jaguars might be particularly reluctant due to Justin Blackmon's three suspensions. If that's the case, Gregory becomes a considerable value for someone else. 

Through two seasons, Gregory tallied 17.5 sacks. Although rough around the edges, NFL clubs adore such high-upside pass-rushers with freakish athleticism. Take away the drug test, and somebody in the top 10 rolls the dice.

If anything, this news minimizes the risk for whatever team watches Gregory fall into its lap. 

Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon

Ronald Martinez/Getty Images

The herd mentality has struck a top quarterback prospect once again, turning a probable No. 1 pick into a potential first-round faller.

Last year, Teddy Bridgewater nearly slid outside the opening round altogether before the Minnesota Vikings ended the madness. Besides the whole "not as good at playing football" thing, Blake Bortles looked like a better NFL quarterback.

In his latest mock, NFL.com's Bucky Brooks has the Oregon star falling to the New Orleans Saints at No. 13. After all, Drew Brees only amassed 4,952 passing yards last year. 

CBS Sports' Jason La Canfora, however, said the Tennessee Titans are a strong candidate to draft Mariota or trade the pick to someone else who wants the quarterback.

"

Some who know Tennessee coach Ken Whisenhunt well figure in the end, barring him being blown out of the water with a trade offer, he goes ahead and drafts the kid. “If there are three or four teams trying to trade up for him, then there's going to be a lot of pressure on Ken to take him if they keep the pick,” as one source put it.

Even if Mariota has some questions in terms of meshing with the Titans offense and even if he's not the prototypical fit for Whisenhunt's scheme, fear of passing on a possible quarterback may force the team's hand.

"

So there's a chance he gets taken where he should. If not, the New York Jets would be foolish to pass up Mariota at pick No. 6, unless it meant trading down for more goodies.

Last year, Minnesota stole the draft's best quarterback after everyone overanalyzed his pro day. There's potential again for teams to forget Mariota's 58-touchdown season, which would prove a grave mistake.

Benardrick McKinney, ILB, Mississippi State 

Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images

Perhaps deemed too boring to warrant an early look, Benardrick McKinney is conspicuously dropping outside the first round. Neither Mel Kiper nor Todd McShay included him in ESPN's latest projections.

NFL.com's Lance Zierlein cited a limited upside in his scouting report:

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McKinney plays within the scheme and finds himself near the play frequently. He plays with strength and has an ability to take on offensive linemen and get downhill to finish his tackles. McKinney looks like an above-average NFL inside linebacker who could become part of a really good defense. He lacks star-making talent, though.

"

Anyone searching for a potential superstar will turn elsewhere. Someone hungry for a low-risk, immediate NFL contributor should pounce on the 22-year-old inside linebacker, who collected 66 tackles during his junior year.

At pick No. 30, the Green Bay Packers provide him the perfect opportunity to operate between pass-rushing monsters Clay Matthews and Julius Peppers. In the process, the Packers solidify a steady tackler to fill A.J. Hawk's shoes in Dom Capers' defense.

Green Bay's major flaw stemmed from its No. 23 rushing defense, so all eyes are on the interior for this pick. McKinney won't make the Pro Bowl, but he'd quickly become a useful cog for a Super Bowl contender.