Miami Dolphins Should Wait to Extend Ryan Tannehill

Progress is a tricky thing at the quarterback position. It's one of two positions in sports (along with hockey goalkeepers) that are held responsible for the team's success by bearing the win-loss record in their stat sheets.

It's also a position where, like so many others in sports, stats do not tell the whole story.

Miami Dolphins quarterback Ryan Tannehill has earned a sub-.500 record (23-25; .479) in his first three seasons as the starting signal-caller, but that does not necessarily mean he can't be the future of the Dolphins franchise at quarterback. That being said, his steadily increasing stats do not necessarily mean the sun is at his face and the wind is at his back. 

Year	Comp	Att	Comp %	Yds	YPA	TD	INT	Rate
2012	282	484	58.3	3294	6.8	12	13	76.1
2013	355	588	60.4	3913	6.7	24	17	81.7
2014	392	590	66.4	4045	6.9	27	12	92.8
Career	1029	1662	61.9	11252	6.8	63	42	84

That's why it seems foolish to give him a big contract extension now. Why sink money into an investment that seems so volatile and has the chance of leaving the Dolphins cap-strapped in the future if it doesn't work out? 

It's especially confusing given the fact that the Dolphins could easily exercise the fifth-year option on Tannehill's contract to avoid having to make this decision until 2017—yes, a full two years to see if his development continues, and two years to decide whether they will sign him long-term.

"We like [Tannehill] a lot," said Dolphins vice president of football operations Mike Tannenbaum, according to Omar Kelly of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel. "Our hope and expectation is he'll be here for a long time. When a long-term deal gets done, I don't have a timetable right now."

Let's leave the funny money out of this; we'll deal only in guaranteed money, just to show how much cash teams are sinking into their quarterbacks. According to NFL contracts and salary-cap website OverTheCap.com, the top 10 highest-paid quarterbacks in guaranteed money per year include names like Matt Stafford, Matt Ryan, Tony Romo and Philip Rivers.

Those quarterbacks are certainly more established in the NFL than Tannehill, but they've all had mixed success in their careers. Tannehill would probably fall closer to guaranteed figures for Andy Dalton, who has been more successful in getting his team to the playoffs but has not exactly taken steps forward every year like Tannehill has. 

Player	Total guaranteed	Average guaranteed per year
Matt Stafford	$41,500,000	$13,833,333
Aaron Rodgers	$54,000,000	$10,800,000
Matt Ryan	$42,000,000	$8,400,000
Sam Bradford	$50,000,000	$8,333,333
Drew Brees	$40,000,000	$8,000,000
Ben Roethlisberger	$31,000,000	$7,750,000
Tony Romo	$40,000,000	$6,666,666
Tom Brady	$33,000,000	$6,600,000
Philip Rivers	$38,150,000	$6,358,333
Eli Manning	$35,000,000	$5,833,333

Dalton is guaranteed an average of $2,833,333 per year, with $17 million guaranteed at his signing, but after the 2015 season, he is effectively living year-to-year with the possibility of being cut at no penalty to the Bengals.

The Dolphins would be wise to work out a deal such as that one, but what's the difference between that and handling a $16 million cap hit in base salary by exercising the fifth-year option? It would be difficult to juggle both the cap hits of Tannehill and defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh next offseason, but it would also be hard to juggle both of them this offseason.

Those aren't the only big cap hits the Dolphins are dealing with in 2016; they must also consider the $10.15 million cap number for left tackle Branden Albert, the $9.8 million cap number for defensive end Cameron Wake, the $9.5 million cap number for tight end Jordan Cameron and cornerback Brent Grimes and the $8.25 million cap number for safety Reshad Jones.

Even if the salary cap climbs again in 2016, that's still $75.8 million in cap space for the top six players on the bill sheet, a lot of money to spend on just a few players. 

Beyond the money, beyond the stats, there's a question of whether Tannehill can round out his game to become an all-around dominant quarterback. In 2014, the Dolphins limited their offense to a dink-and-dunk approach that mitigated Tannehill's struggles throwing downfield. He threw a stunning 362 of his 590 pass attempts (61.4 percent) nine yards or fewer downfield, according to ProFootballFocus.com. 

On deep passes, Tannehill was accurate only 37.7 percent of the time, right around the middle of the pack among quarterbacks (13th out of 25, 22nd out of 38). 

Quarterbacks have proved that Super Bowls can be won with precision, and not necessarily with big plays, for years (see Joe Montana, Tom Brady and others), but it takes a certain level of perfection to execute that style. Tannehill showed flashes of it last year, but he'll need to improve dramatically if he wants to reach that level. 

The Dolphins already want Tannehill to be their long-term quarterback, but the question is whether he is worthy of that mantle. We still don't know yet, and the Dolphins shouldn't sign him to a big-money, long-term contract unless they're certain.

Unless otherwise noted, all salary-cap and contract information provided by OverTheCap.com, and all advanced stats provided by ProFootballFocus.com.