San Francisco 49ers: 5 Key Stats That Must Improve in 2015
The San Francisco 49ers finished the 2014 season with a record of 8-8. The 49ers missed the playoffs for the first time under Jim Harbaugh, whose four-year run as head coach came to a contentious end.
The defense generally played well, despite a dizzying array of injuries and suspensions. Unfortunately, the offense struggled for much of the year, and that cost the 49ers several chances to win over the course of the season.
Although stats do not always tell the whole story, they can frequently paint a clear picture as to what has happened on the field. In the case of the 49ers, there are five critical stats that do help to explain why the 2014 season was not a success.
Let's take a closer look at those specific stats and how they adversely affected the team.
Red-Zone Touchdown Efficiency
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The San Francisco 49ers ranked 29th out of 32 teams in red-zone touchdown-scoring efficiency. The 49ers scored touchdowns in barely over 43 percent of their trips into the red zone.
There are several factors that caused the 49ers to be unsuccessful. The first issue is poor play-calling. Colin Kaepernick, one of the most mobile quarterbacks in the league had only one rushing touchdown all season.
The run-pass option is one of the most difficult plays to defend near the goal line. It was a staple of the 49ers offense with Joe Montana and Steve Young. However, offensive coordinator Greg Roman almost never ran these types of plays.
Instead, Roman tried simple running plays, which frequently got stuffed because the offensive line was not able to blow defenses off the line. In addition, defenses frequently would stack eight or nine players in the box to defend against the inside handoff.
Kaepernick also had trouble finding open receivers in the red zone, as the space available to get free is more constricted and defenders do not need to cover a large area.
A typical Roman play from the red zone would be a fade pattern, which Kaepernick does not throw particularly well. The tight ends were also underutilized. Starting tight end Vernon Davis had only two touchdown receptions in 2014, when only one year before, he had 13.
We will see if the 49ers get more creative and utilize Kaepernick's running ability, under new offensive coordinator Geep Chryst. Kaepernick's running ability is one of the best assets the 49ers have on offense. Not capitalizing on that makes the offense very predictable.
Stats courtesy of TeamRankings.com.
Sacks Allowed
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In Colin Kaepernick, the San Francisco 49ers have one of the most mobile quarterbacks in the league. However, they allowed 52 sacks in 2014, which was tied for the third-most in the league.
In addition, Frank Gore, who is arguably the best running back in the league at picking up the blitz, has moved on to Indianapolis. In addition to being able to stay healthy and run the ball effectively, Carlos Hyde also has huge shoes to fill, when it comes to picking up the blitz.
The offensive line did not play well last season. Injuries to center Daniel Kilgore and right tackle Anthony Davis definitely hurt the line's pass protection. In addition, Alex Boone, who missed virtually all of training camp due to a contract holdout, returned and played very poorly.
Left guard Mike Iupati is a better run-blocker than he is in pass protection. He has also moved on via free agency.
Kaepernick also must improve his ability to feel the pressure coming from the pass rush. He needs to either dump the ball off, get rid of the ball quicker or scramble away from the oncoming rushers.
In addition, the receivers must do a better job of getting open in a confined space.
Stats courtesy of NFL.com.
Points Per Game
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The scoring offense was led by kicker Phil Dawson with 108 points, this past season. That in and of itself is not surprising as kickers typically do lead their team in scoring.
However, what was alarming is the nearest players to Dawson were Frank Gore and Anquan Boldin, who had both scored just five touchdowns on the year.
The 49ers ranked 25th out of 32 teams in scoring, at 19.1 points per game. What makes this low-scoring output so problematical was that the defense actually played well and generally gave the San Francisco offense the ball with decent field position or gave the team more offensive possessions.
Scoring more points is a key the 49ers must improve on in 2015.
Stats courtesy of NFL.com.
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Completion Percentage
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The 49ers completed 292 of their 487 pass attempts, a 60 percent rate. That was 24th in the league, and since Kaepernick threw all but nine of those passes, the onus falls on him.
Kaepernick must improve his efficiency and accuracy for the 49ers to be successful.
Kaepernick frequently does not throw a swing pass or a safety valve pass against mounting pressure from the pass rush. Instead, he will typically try to force the ball into a small window, take a sack or end up firing the ball inaccurately.
It will be incumbent upon Kaepernick to do a better job of taking what the defense will give him. A consistent gain of even four or five yards on a flare pass is far better than an incomplete throw.
With Reggie Bush and Kendall Hunter, a routine five-yard swing pass can turn into a huge gain because of their elusiveness. Kaepernick just needs to find them and give them the opportunity to make a big play.
Hopefully, working with Kurt Warner this offseason will help Kaepernick do a better job of reading defenses, finding his secondary receivers and throwing the ball more accurately.
Stats courtesy of NFL.com.
Third-Down Efficiency
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The San Francisco 49ers ranked 15th in the league in third-down efficiency. They converted 86 of their 213 attempts, a rate of 40.4 percent.
By itself, ranking 15th is right in the middle of the pack. However, out of the 12 teams that made the playoffs last season, nine of them ranked higher than the 49ers in this all-important stat. This is an area that must improve if the 49ers hope to earn a playoff berth in 2015.
How can the 49ers improve on this rate?
It starts with putting themselves into more manageable third-down situations. The offensive line must protect the quarterback better, not allowing sacks or rushed throws that result in more incomplete passes.
The offensive line must also open holes consistently for the running backs. In 2014, Gore averaged 4.3 yards per carry, a solid number. However, Carlos Hyde averaged only 4.0 yards per carry as Gore's backup.
With Gore now out of the picture, Hyde will carry the ball much more often, which will also mean the defenses with focus on him to a larger degree. His ability to produce and stay healthy will go a long way to determining how successful the 49ers will be in 2015.
Durability will be a key. In each of the past four years, Gore played in all 16 regular-season games and the playoffs. He averaged 1,165 yards rushing in those four years and has had over 1,000 yards in eight of his ten NFL seasons.
Hyde's running style is very upright, which exposes his legs to more jarring hits. It is a concern as to whether he can stand up to the pounding of a full NFL season.
In addition to the running game, Kaepernick must also be more efficient. His 60.5 percent completion rate must improve, as the 49ers find themselves in 3rd-and-long situations far too often.
The 49ers also had 70 offensive penalties last year, which was the seventh-most in the NFL. This also makes it difficult to excel with third-down conversions.
Looking ahead to the 2015 season, it is extremely probable that the San Francisco defense will not be as strong as it was in 2014. This means the offense must control the ball and score more points. Improving their third-down efficiency is something that will be a major benefit on both sides of the ball.
Third down stats courtesy of ESPN.go.com.
Individual player stats courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference.com.
Penalty stats courtesy of SportingCharts.com.
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