Kentucky Derby Qualifying 2015: Weekly Points Standings and Prep Schedule
The 141st running of the Kentucky Derby is quickly approaching, but the field is still shuffling into place as the 2015 prep schedule comes down the final stretch.
All of the top horses will be in action in a number of high-profile races, vying for a spot in the prestigious maiden race of the Triple Crown campaign at Churchill Downs. With 100 points available to the winner in each of the next seven marquee races, plenty is still to be determined.
Most casual fans are going to tune in when the elite horses chase the Triple Crown's first bijou; however, there is much work and horse racing action to witness before the Kentucky Derby's starting gates open.
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Check out the updated qualifying points standings below, along with more detailed analysis regarding the pursuit of the Triple Crown's first leg.
| 1 | International Star | Mike Maker | 171 |
| 2 | Dortmund | Bob Baffert | 170 |
| 3 | Carpe Diem | Todd Pletcher | 164 |
| 4 | American Pharoah | Bob Baffert | 160 |
| 5 | Frosted | Kiaran McLaughlin | 113 |
| 6 | Mubtaahij-IRE | Mike de Kock | 100 |
| 7 | Materiality | Todd Pletcher | 100 |
| 8 | El Kabeir | John Terranova II | 95 |
| 9 | Upstart | Rick Violette Jr. | 76 |
| 10 | Far Right | Ron Moquette | 62 |
| 11 | Itsaknockout | Todd Pletcher | 60 |
| 12 | Firing Line | Simon Callaghan | 58 |
| 13 | Danzig Moon | Mark Casse | 45 |
| 14 | War Story | Tom Amoss | 44 |
| 15 | Tencendur | George Weaver | 41 |
| March 28, 2015 | UAE Derby | Meydan | Mubtaahij |
| March 28, 2015 | Florida Derby | Gulfstream Park | Materiality |
| March 28, 2015 | Louisiana Derby | Fair Grounds | International Star |
| April 4, 2015 | Wood Memorial | Aqueduct | Frosted |
| April 4, 2015 | Santa Anita Derby | Santa Anita Park | Dortmund |
| April 4, 2015 | Blue Grass | Keeneland | Carpe Diem |
| April 11, 2015 | Arkansas Derby | Oaklawn Park | American Pharoah |
Arkansas Derby Recap
Saturday’s Arkansas Derby was the final scoring race before the Kentucky Derby, and American Pharoah looked the part of a potential Triple Crown contender.
Bridget’s Big Luvy was impressive out of the gates and took the initial lead, but American Pharoah moved to the outside and dominated down the stretch. He outpaced the rest of the field on the closing kick and captured the $1 million Arkansas Derby (G1) title in impressive fashion.
Steve Moss of WKYT-TV Lexington noted that American Pharoah may be a smart bet when the Kentucky Derby rolls around:
The Arkansas Derby victory was worth 100 points to the winner, which brought American Pharoah’s mark to 160 Derby Points.
The Bob Baffert-trained horse now has the fourth most points in the standings, but could very well capture the prestigious race if he runs like he did Saturday.
Blue Grass Stakes Recap
Carpe Diem entered the Blue Grass Stakes as the morning line favorite to win the race. He held up his end of the bargain in dominating fashion, pulling away from Danzig Moon (Place) and Ocho Ocho Ocho (Show) to continue to building momentum before the Kentucky Derby.
As Steve Haskin of BloodHorse.com noted on Twitter, Carpe Diem showed the world exactly why he will be one of the key horses to watch at the Kentucky Derby:
Carpe Diem trainer Todd Pletcher hasn't had much success at Churchill Downs in his career, owning one victory with Super Saver in 2010, but he's got everything going one month away from the start of the Triple Crown season.
This marks the second consecutive race win for Carpe Diem, who took home the Tampa Bay Derby in March. Carpe Diem stable owner Elliott Walden, who is president and CEO of WinStar, told Claire Novak of BloodHorse.com that the ascent of his horse has been everything he could hope for:
"He just continues to get better and you want to have a horse that's moving forward this time of year—you want to have a horse that's blooming, and he's doing that," Walden said.
In addition to solidifying his spot as one of the Kentucky Derby favorites, Carpe Diem earned 100 points in the standings.
There's a long way to go before we know if there will be a Triple Crown winner, but Carpe Diem is making his runs look so easy that he could be another contender for the elusive prize. For now, though, the thoroughbred can celebrate a huge victory in one of the biggest tune-up races.
Wood Memorial
Even though there wasn't an overwhelming favorite at the Wood Memorial, Frosted pulled off a minor upset by finishing ahead of Tencendur and El Kabeir.
It wasn't a smooth run for Frosted, as the Courier-Journal noted the young horse made a comeback following a stumble:
Considering those circumstances, Frosted's win looks more impressive. He has been making strides recently, but being able to secure a win in a race this prestigious while not running perfectly should give jockey Joel Rosario a lot of confidence heading into the big race on May 2.
This is also Frosted's first win in a race since last October, so Rosario has clearly gotten a feel for the horse. He's come close to victory recently, having finished second at the Remsen Stakes and Holy Bull Stakes. This leap is huge for what is to come in the next four weeks.
On the other side of the spectrum, Daredevil continues to frustrate. He was listed as the morning-line favorite with 9-5 odds on the Kentucky Derby website, but didn't even get into the top three. This marks the third straight race he's failed to win, following November's Breeders' Cup Juvenile (11th) and March's Swale (2nd).
Long races haven't been kind to Daredevil, though trainer Todd Pletcher told The Associated Press (h/t Fox Sports) he felt confident about where the three-year-old was headed:
''I think he's very talented,'' Pletcher said. ''He's also fast, and part of his success stretching out is going to depend on how he settles the first part (of the race). So we're excited about the opportunity.''
There's no denying that Daredevil can run with anyone out of the gate, but he's like a sprinter who doesn't properly prepare for a marathon race. There's only so much one can do with a limited gas tank. The results have proven that.
Santa Anita Derby
Just as Carpe Diem prove worthy of being the overwhelming favorite at the Blue Grass Stakes, Dortmund held serve at the Santa Anita Derby. It's not a surprise since he's the offspring of Big Brown, who won the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes in 2008.
The oddsmakers (h/t KentuckyDerby.com) were all over Dortmund at 3-5. He's won all six races he's entered, including the Robert B. Lewis Stakes and San Felipe Stakes this year.
What separates Dortmund from every other horse challenging him is natural ability. That sounds reductive, but there's an ease with which he makes everything look that no one else is matching right now.
Here's what Marcus Hersh of BloodHorse.com tweeted about Dortmund's opening quarter run at Santa Anita Park:
Think of what happens when Usain Bolt is running against other Olympic athletes. He's not exerting maximum effort, yet still sets world records. Dortmund is on that kind of run right now, though the competition will get better at Churchill Downs.
Dortmund trainer Bob Baffert told The Associated Press (h/t St. Louis Post-Dispatch) that his horse reminds him of one of the NCAA tournament's biggest stars because of his size and versatility:
“Dortmund is tall, he’s leggy. He’s like the (7-foot) Wisconsin center Frank Kaminsky,” Baffert said. “He can get up and go.”
For evidence of how good Dortmund looked compared to the field, here's a photo from Horse Racing TV showing his lead before crossing the finish line:
Also, per Santa Anita broadcaster Michelle Yu, Dortmund will have something in common with his father on May 2:
When you consider the pedigree of Dortmund, the ease with which he runs and the unblemished resume through six races, there's no doubt he will be one of the biggest names to watch. There's no need to tinker with a formula that's working, so jockey Martin Garcia just needs to make sure the train stays on the tracks.
There's plenty of time to prepare for Kentucky. Baffert is one of the best trainers in the business with three wins at Churchill Downs, so there's no reason to think Dortmund is going to fall down on the biggest stage in the sport.
Louisiana Derby Recap
Trainer Mike Maker has a presumptive Kentucky Derby contender with quite the brash moniker. As long as International Star continues to back it up, there can't be too many complaints.
International Star lived up to the hype once again in climbing to the top of the points standings, winning a fourth Kentucky Derby scoring race at the Fair Grounds Race Course in New Orleans.
Winning at this rate will indeed make Maker's horse an internationally known name if he can pull off another triumph at Churchill Downs. The Louisiana Derby comprised a quality field, too, featuring Stanford and War Story rounding out place and show respectively.
BloodHorse.com's Steve Haskin weighed in on the outcome:
Stanford gave International Star quite a run for the top money, finishing just a neck behind in a captivating conclusion.
Co-owner Ken Ramsey spoke after his horse's latest trip to the winner's circle, per BloodHorse.com's Claire Novak: "That's back-to-back wins for us here in the Louisiana Derby and we swept all three this year. Last year [with Vicar's in Trouble] we missed out on the Risen Star. Next stop is Kentucky, that's the goal—these are prep races and we're certainly glad to get them under our belt."
Fair Grounds was the site of International Star's two prior wins, so track familiarity had to be a factor in his comfort level. Whether that same grace under pressure can translate to Churchill Downs remains to be seen.
The resolve to pull out such a narrow win shows International Star can thrive even when he's not a clear front-runner. That will be key at the Kentucky Derby, where endurance, patience and pace are key on the long Louisville track alongside the most elite competition in existence.
Florida Derby Recap
Despite making just his third start, Materiality got the better of heavily favored Upstart, defeating the presumed winner by 1.5 lengths to maintain a perfect record.
Trainer Todd Pletcher spoke about Materiality after the horse's jaunt to victory, marking the third Florida Derby winner for Pletcher.
"You don't see horses win their second start off one six-furlong maiden in and go a mile and an eighth in exceptional time," said Pletcher, via The Courier-Journal's Jennie Rees. "I think he stamped himself as a very legitimate horse at that point. It takes a special one to do that."
Nick Tammaro of the New York Racing Association hinted that Materiality's inexperience may be a negative in a prospective Kentucky Derby run:
Doug Salvatore of the Erie Times News alluded to how little wear and tear Pletcher has put on Materiality:
Upstart staged an impressive rebound in finishing second at the Florida Derby. After being disqualified for unsavory tactics at the conclusion of a Fountain of Youth Stakes win, a trip to Churchill Downs is still well within reason.
Itsaknockout, who won the Fountain of Youth Stakes, kept his Kentucky Derby hopes alive by finishing fourth and gaining valuable points. Having a seasoned trainer in Pletcher will help if he enters Louisville as a relative long shot.
Also helping his cause in the points standings was Ami's Flatter, who finished in the money but off the ambitious pace the top two finishers maintained down the final stretch.
UAE Derby Recap
In the first race in the Championship Series that was meant to reward 100 points to a winner in a deep field of competitors, Mubtaahij dusted the competition by eight lengths at the Meydan Racecourse.
Jockey Christophe Soumillon referenced the strategy he deployed for what turned out to be a huge triumph for Mubtaahij's connections.
"I was just behind the leaders and the pace was good, so I followed it into the straight," said Soumillon afterward, per The Associated Press (via ABC News). "I was going very easily and as soon as I pressed the button it was all over. In the end, I kept some energy for the future, especially if he goes to the Kentucky Derby."
The Run for the Roses' official Twitter account points out how Mubtaahij is garnering praise as a current third favorite with 8-1 futures odds:
Some may discount Mubtaahij as a legitimate threat to win in Louisville, despite such an explosion to the finish. What makes this win most encouraging for Mubtaahij's Kentucky Derby prospects is that it was the longest race on the pre-Derby schedule at 1 3/16 miles.
The romp in Dubai will allow Mubtaahij to punch a ticket to Churchill Downs. Most impressive in the race replay below is that Mubtaahij held his composure despite starting on the rail before making his decisive move.
Mubtaahij has taken first place in four of his last five starts, with a runner-up finish in the UAE 2000 Guineas to potential Kentucky Derby contender Maftool. However, Maftool was no match for Mubtaahij in Dubai, finishing well off the pace in second.
All the momentum the UAE Derby champion is gathering makes him a real threat to take the first leg of the Triple Crown.
2015 Kentucky Derby Qualifying Analysis
Many of the usual suspects in terms of trainers have their fingerprints all over the top of the standings ahead of the 100-point races.
As of Monday, Hall of Famer Bob Baffert has two of the top five horses in points with Dortmund and American Pharaoh, respectively. Baffert is always a threat at Churchill Downs as a three-time winner, though he hasn't had an entry in the winner's circle since 2002.
HRTV's Zoe Cadman observed how strong both of Baffert's top contenders looked in their recent work at Santa Anita Park:
While trainer Todd Pletcher has a pair of viable horses of his own in Carpe Diem and Itsaknockout, the appropriately named John Terranova holds the points standings' current ace.
Terranova may live up to his surname and headline a "new world" where he establishes himself as a true authority in the industry on the wings of El Kabeir. The Courier-Journal noticed El Kabeir's exceptional practice at Belmont Park:
HorseRacingNation.com lists him as a probable entrant for the Wood Memorial Stakes, where he'll likely be among the favorites.
In his past three races, El Kabeir had wins in the Jerome and Gotham Stakes, with a place at the Wither Stakes sandwiched in between. All of those were Grade 3 showcases, so he seems up for the best competition.
Aboard for the Gotham Stakes triumph earlier this month was 54-year-old jockey C.C. Lopez, who spoke about his horse's victory afterward, per ESPN.com's Bob Ehalt:
"He broke good but those horses broke better. They had gas and he quickly got shuffled back. I tried not to panic. I was on the best horse in the race. When he changed leads turning for home, he exploded. So I'm not worried about the distance any more. Today he showed us everything we've tried to teach him in the mornings, sitting behind horses and getting that dirt in the face. He was much better to ride today than the last two times.
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The knack El Kabeir has displayed to save his best for last bodes well for his eventual, prospective transition to Churchill Downs' 10-furlong track.
Even a modest finish at the Wood Memorial, preferably in the money, ought to be enough to gain El Kabeir entry into the Kentucky Derby. One of the best-working jockeys should be eager to be in the irons as El Kabeir gears up for a push toward the Run for the Roses.
With so much racing still to play out before Louisville's main event, it's hard to distinguish all of the most viable contenders at the moment. The underdog storyline of El Kabeir is one to root for. When the majority of points are handed out in the coming weeks, the true Kentucky Derby contenders will separate themselves from the rest.
All indications are that this year's field will be extremely deep, with a nice mix of fresh faces and familiar fixtures. This dynamic is bound to make the "Most Exciting Two Minutes in Sports" live up to its moniker May 2.
Note: Racing history courtesy of HorseRacingNation.com unless otherwise indicated.
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