Ranking the 2015 Impact of the San Francisco 49ers' Free-Agent Signings
It’s time to measure the impact of the San Francisco 49ers’ free-agent signings now that the first wave of free agency is over.
Impact is a vague term, so let’s define it before we measure it. By impact, we’re talking how much a player will play next season and how productive he will be.
We’re not talking about the impact he will have in the locker room or in the players’ meetings. We’re not talking about players who will make their impact as “coaches on the field” or on the sideline. It’s impossible to measure how much those things affect winning and losing.
We’re talking about how much better each new player will make the 49ers. We’re talking about playing time and production. That’s it. Got it?
Here is a ranking of the 49ers’ free-agent signings from those who will make the greatest impact to those who will make the least impact.
1. Torrey Smith, Wide Receiver
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Smith is a lock to catch at least 50 passes for roughly 800 yards—the type of production the 49ers used to get from Vernon Davis. Davis averaged 59 catches and 814 receiving yards per season from 2009 to 2013. But he tanked in 2014 and caught just 26 passes for 245 yards.
The 49ers don’t have to pray for Davis to bounce back next season. Smith replaces what Davis provided for the 49ers’ passing game.
Not only will Smith produce; he will make the other offensive skill players’ jobs easier. Davis and Anquan Boldin will face fewer double-teams, and opposing safeties will line up farther away from the line of scrimmage to make sure Smith doesn’t beat them deep. The threat of Smith’s speed will give Boldin more space to catch underneath passes, and it will give Carlos Hyde bigger running lanes.
Smith won’t lead the 49ers in receiving—Boldin will. But Smith may play more than Boldin. The Niners like to use “heavy formations”—two tight ends, one fullback, one running back and one wide receiver. Heavy formations are effective for power runs and play-action deep passes. Boldin is not a deep threat—Smith is. So Smith most likely will play in the Niners’ heavy formations instead of Boldin.
2. Darnell Dockett, Defensive Tackle
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If Justin Smith plays out the final season of his contract, Dockett most likely will be a bench player and a third-down pass-rushing specialist.
If Smith retires, Dockett probably will take his place as the starting right defensive tackle, which would hurt the 49ers’ run defense and help their pass rush.
Smith is one of the best run defenders in the NFL, and Dockett is not. Dockett is a below-average run defender. But he is a much better pass-rusher than Smith now that Smith is 35—he turns 36 in September.
In 2011 and 2012, Justin Smith and Aldon Smith were arguably the best pass-rushing duo in the NFL. They lined up next to each other, just a couple of feet apart. Sometimes they would rush side by side straight up the field; other times one would loop around the other. Other teams couldn’t handle them.
Justin Smith is not the pass-rusher he once was. Opposing offenses aren’t worried about him, so they can focus on stopping Aldon Smith.
Dockett is a dangerous pass-rusher. He will make Aldon Smith even more dangerous.
3. Shareece Wright, Cornerback
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Wright isn’t special. He probably won’t make the Pro Bowl next year. But he probably will start and play about 1,000 snaps for the 49ers. The Niners aren’t paying him $4 million next season to sit on the bench.
The 49ers tend to be thrifty with cornerbacks. The starters typically earn between $3 million and $4 million per season, and the backups usually are cheap young guys still on their rookie contracts or cheap old guys playing for close to the veteran minimum. The Niners prefer to invest in safeties, linebackers and defensive linemen rather than corners.
The 49ers splurged on Wright. They rarely pay a cornerback more than what they’re paying Wright next season. They need him to be the reliable veteran who plays every game because the other starting cornerback, Tramaine Brock, missed 13 games last season. Brock has never started more than seven games in a season.
No one will be surprised if Brock misses more games next season. Wright gives the 49ers a solid corner they can count on every week.
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4. Reggie Bush, Running Back
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Bush will have less of an impact on the 49ers next season than Wright even though Bush may be the better player.
Bush had the three best seasons of his career from 2011 to 2013. He averaged 4.6 yards per carry, 8.3 yards per catch and 1,390 yards from scrimmage per season. He was both a good running back and a good receiver.
He was 29 last season, and his body began to break down. He played just 11 games and averaged only 3.9 yards per carry and 6.3 yards per catch. He gained 550 yards from scrimmage.
Now he’s 30. He will back up Carlos Hyde, a better running back than Bush in almost every way—better at running inside, better at running outside, better at running in short-yardage situations, better at blocking.
Bush has one thing over Hyde—he’s a better receiver. If the 49ers want to throw a pass to a running back, they probably will send Bush to the huddle, not Hyde.
But the 49ers rarely throw passes to running backs. Last season, four 49ers’ running backs caught just 44 passes total. There were a few reasons for this:
1. The 49ers’ previous coaching staff rarely called passing plays where the running back was the No. 1 receiver in the progression.
2. Colin Kaepernick often chooses to scramble instead of throwing a checkdown pass to a running back.
3. Kaepernick struggles throwing checkdown passes because he lacks accuracy, touch and timing. He rarely throws a pass that leads a receiver or running back.
Unless Kaepernick improves his short passes, Bush will have little impact.
5. Erik Pears, Guard/Tackle
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Ideally, Pears will have zero impact on the 49ers next season. He will replace Jonathan Martin as the backup tackle, and he would stay on the bench. The less he plays, the better.
But the 49ers have a hole at left guard after Mike Iupati signed with the Arizona Cardinals. Someone has to take Iupati’s spot, and it could be Pears.
The 49ers drafted guard Brandon Thomas in the third round last year. He tore his ACL last April in a predraft workout with the New Orleans Saints. It was the second time he has torn an ACL. He didn’t play at all last season.
Maybe Thomas won’t tear his ACL a third time. Maybe he will win the left guard competition in training camp. Maybe he will be a good left guard. Maybe Pears won’t have to play.
That's a lot of maybes.
There’s one more maybe—Anthony Davis. He missed nine games last season with various injuries. If he gets hurt again, Pears will take his place at right tackle, and that won’t be good.
The 49ers could eliminate some of those maybes by taking an offensive lineman in the upcoming draft.
6. Jerome Simpson, Wide Receiver
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There’s a chance Simpson will make an impact next season—a small chance.
Right now, Simpson is the No. 3 receiver on the 49ers roster. The 49ers’ No. 3 receiver typically catches about 35 passes. Simpson is in line to make a significant impact if he makes the team.
There’s a chance he won’t make the team—a big chance. He’s 29, and he didn’t play in the NFL last season. The 49ers hardly are committed to him—he signed a two-year deal worth just $865,000 per season. He’s clinging to the roster by a thread.
There probably are a couple of receivers the 49ers would love to get in the upcoming draft. If somehow the 49ers fail to draft any of them, hey, at least they still have Simpson. Simpson is the fallback option.
If the 49ers draft a wide receiver they like—and they probably will—Simpson could be one of their final cuts when training camp ends.
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