NCAA Bracket 2015: Odds for Every Sweet 16 Team to Win NCAA Championship
Kentucky or the field?
That was the question coming into the tournament, and it has not changed. The Wildcats were the runaway favorites coming in, and nothing has happened thus far to alter that perception.
But if you're the type who has gone with the field, you have to like the fact that this tournament has gone mostly chalk and that once Kentucky gets to the Final Four, two great teams could await. Arizona and Wisconsin have the goods to upset the 'Cats, and on the other side of the bracket, Duke has arguably been the most impressive team through the first few rounds.
So now that the field is down to 16, I'm going to take a stab at handicapping the field based on what I've seen over the last two games and throughout the season. Each team's path to the national semifinals also played a part in these rankings, as teams with tougher potential schedules naturally have lower odds of making it to Indianapolis.
I'm on the "I'll take Kentucky" side, but I'm also a believer that John Calipari achieving 40-0 is not a foregone conclusion.
16. UCLA Bruins
1 of 16
Title Odds: 1,000-1
The Road Ahead: The Bruins face a team they've already lost to this season (Gonzaga) in the Sweet 16. If they somehow win that game and Utah upsets Duke, you'd have to give them at least a puncher's chance to get to the Final Four, as they split the season series with Utah.
Reason to Buy: Head coach Steve Alford has his offense playing at such a high level that it's really hard to believe this is the same team that put up just seven points in a half against Kentucky back in December.
Reason to Sell: The Bruins have decent talent, but this isn't the type of roster that can compete for a national title. They should be thrilled they've made it this far.
Will Cut Down the Nets If... It's not even worth coming up with a scenario because it would be too outlandish to actually take place.
15. Xavier Musketeers
2 of 16
Title Odds: 500-1
The Road Ahead: Xavier has to play a single-digit seed for the first time in the tournament in the Sweet 16 and will be a heavy underdog against No. 2 seed Arizona.
Reason to Buy: The Musketeers have played spoiler plenty of times in March. This is a program that's used to success and will not be overwhelmed by the big stage. This is Xavier's sixth Sweet 16 dating back to 2004, and it's made the Elite Eight twice.
Reason to Sell: Xavier is good enough to knock on that door but has never been good enough to bust through to a Final Four. This is also a team that went 9-9 in the Big East.
Will Cut Down the Nets If... Here's a possible road for Xavier over the next four games: Arizona, Wisconsin, Kentucky and Duke. Maybe the Musketeers could upset one of those teams, but three or four in a row? Not happening.
14. West Virginia Mountaineers
3 of 16
Title Odds: 330-1
The Road Ahead: West Virginia got the short straw. The Mountaineers have the unfortunate honor of being the next team in front of Kentucky, which likely means a reservation to go home.
Reason to Buy: In a single-elimination tournament, West Virginia is a team you'd like to avoid. The Mountaineers force more turnovers than any team in the country, and their pressure is unlike anything Kentucky has seen. They're not a great shooting team, but they have some streaky shooters who have the ability to get hot. It would take a perfect storm to beat UK, but Bob Huggins has guys who play extremely hard and believe they can hang with anyone.
Reason to Sell: Poor shooting. You've got to make shots to keep advancing in this tournament, and the Mountaineers just don't shoot well enough to win six straight games. Their effective field-goal percentage of 46.6 percent ranks 275th nationally.
Will Cut Down the Nets If... Those shooting percentages go way, way up and the Mountaineers overwhelm everyone with their pressure. Eventually—and it could be this next game against the 'Cats—West Virginia is going to face a team that can deal with the press. And when West Virginia isn't able to throw up a lot more shots than its opponent—the goal of the hectic style Huggs has employed—then it's difficult for this group to beat great teams.
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13. Louisville Cardinals
4 of 16
Title Odds: 200-1
The Road Ahead: This would be Rick Pitino's worst team to ever get to a Final Four if it gets there, but the path may be easier than he's ever had before. Louisville lost earlier this year to North Carolina State, its Sweet 16 opponent, but that's a winnable game. And whoever Louisville would get in the Elite Eight (Oklahoma or Michigan State) is also beatable.
Reason to Buy: Rick Pitino. He's a master at getting the most out of his teams in the NCAA tournament. His talent isn't what he's used to having, but the Cards still have a pretty nice duo in Montrezl Harrell and Terry Rozier.
Reason to Sell: Louisville shot really well against Northern Iowa, but this is a poor shooting team. Eventually, the Cards will go cold.
Will Cut Down the Nets If... That basket continues to look way bigger than it is. This team has to shoot the ball well to keep advancing, because as good as its defense is, that's not enough to win the title. Whatever happens, Louisville fans should be satisfied with this team getting to the second weekend of the tournament.
12. North Carolina State Wolfpack
5 of 16
Title Odds: 200-1
The Road Ahead: NC State should probably be favored in the Sweet 16 even though Louisville is the higher seed. The Wolfpack already knocked off the Cards this year, and that game was in Louisville. NC State also has the more talented roster. Win that game and it's conceivable you could see this team in Indy.
Reason to Buy: The Wolfpack have the talent of a top-10ish team. Guards Cat Barber and Trevor Lacey can score against anyone, and Mark Gottfried has a nice frontcourt rotation with the athleticism and strength to hang with the big boys. We've seen how good the Wolfpack can be in wins over Duke and Villanova.
Reason to Sell: The product has not always been as good as it should be this year. There's a reason this team lost 13 games in the regular season.
Will Cut Down the Nets If... Barber and Lacey play like All-Americans, Gottfried gets max effort out of all of his guys and NC State's defense is better than it's ever been.
This team reminds me of Kentucky last season in that the Wolfpack have the roster for a deep run and just didn't play up to their talent in the regular season. But they're not quite as talented as that UK team was, and they're lucky to still be playing after a close call in the round of 64 against LSU.
11. Oklahoma Sooners
6 of 16
Title Odds: 100-1
The Road Ahead: The Sooners are now the highest-seeded team left in the East Region with both Virginia and Villanova knocked out.
Reason to Buy: After being eliminated in the round of 64 last year, Oklahoma concentrated on becoming a great defensive team this season. The biggest difference has been effort and attitude. You'll routinely see the Sooners slap the floor. Lon Kruger has always been able to coach offense, and he's great at making in-game adjustments.
Reason to Sell: The Big 12 has not exactly shown well in the tournament, and one reason to be skeptical of Big 12 teams coming in was how up and down they were all year. Some thought that it was because the league was so difficult. That may have played a part, but it probably also had to do with the fact that the league's best teams were just sort of Jekyll and Hyde.
The Sooners are right there with the rest of them, losing several games (at Creighton and twice to Kansas State) they had no business losing. Can a team that inconsistent win six straight in the tourney?
Will Cut Down the Nets If... They zone in for some spectacular shooting. Star guard Buddy Hield is scary to face, because when he's hot, he's scorching. But Hield has been pretty streaky all year. The Sooners have a really good starting five, but their bench isn't great. It's hard to believe they have enough to get by multiple elite teams and reach the national championship.
10. Wichita State Shockers
7 of 16
Title Odds: 100-1
The Road Ahead: Wichita State faces an excellent three-point shooting team in the Sweet 16 with Notre Dame. The closest equivalent to the Irish in the Missouri Valley this year was Northern Iowa, which also spreads the floor with shooters. The Shockers went 1-1 against UNI.
After that, a rematch from last year's round-of-32 classic against Kentucky could take place. The Shockers would have a chance to be the spoiler this time around.
Reason to Buy: You saw the toughness and savvy of Wichita State's guards in the win over Kansas. If I'm building a team for March, I'd take Fred VanVleet, Ron Baker and Tekele Cotton. Those are guys I'd be comfortable going to war with.
Reason to Sell: Evan Wessel was fantastic against Kansas. But can the Shockers knock off a team like Kentucky with a 6'4" guard playing the 4 spot? The Shockers aren't quite at the level they were a year ago because they lack the depth of big bodies that team had.
Will Cut Down the Nets If... The Shockers shoot like they did against Kansas—15-of-31 from deep—and play mistake-free basketball. They're capable in one game, but it will be difficult to duplicate that performance four more times.
9. Michigan State Spartans
8 of 16
Title Odds: 70-1
The Road Ahead: The East Region is wide open, and Michigan State now seems to be the trendy pick to get to Indy. Oklahoma is better than probably perceived since the Big 12 has had its struggles, but Michigan State's talent is similar. The Spartans wouldn't face a Goliath until the Final Four, where Duke might be waiting.
Reason to Buy: Tom Izzo and Travis Trice. Izzo improved his round-of-32 record to 13-1. If he gets to the Elite Eight, he'll have a great shot to get to the Final Four, as he's an impressive 6-2 in that round. Trice showed against Virginia that he has the ability to have a big game by simply going and getting his shot without much help. That's a great weapon in close tourney games down the stretch.
Reason to Sell: Do the Spartans really have enough talent to win the title? Last year's team did, but this group doesn't have as many future pros. We did see a No. 7 seed win the tournament last season, but the teams at the top are much better this year than they were in 2014.
Will Cut Down the Nets If... The Spartans get to the Final Four, and their opponents go ice cold. I could see them pulling off one upset to get to the title game, much like the 2009 team's run. But in that title game, Kentucky—the equivalent of North Carolina's 2009 juggernaut—likely would await.
8. Utah Utes
9 of 16
Title Odds: 50-1
The Road Ahead: The Utes could have had a shot at a No. 2 seed if not for a late-season slump that saw them lose three of six. Their penalty for such a slump is getting Duke in the Sweet 16 and then possibly Gonzaga in the Elite Eight. Had they played well down the stretch of the regular season, they likely would not have had to face a team on Duke's level until at least the Elite Eight.
Reason to Buy: The Utes appear to have all the pieces to win a title. They rank in the top 20 in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency—a must to even have a shot at a title. They have a star point guard in Delon Wright. Much like old Utah point guard Andre Miller, Wright has great size (6'5") and excellent vision, making everyone around him better. The Utes surround Wright with shooters and have a future pro in the middle in Jakob Poeltl (7'0"), who has made 12 of his 13 field-goals and blocked six shots in the NCAA tournament.
Reason to Sell: The Utes have not been able to knock off elite programs when given the chance this year. They lost to Kansas in nonconference play and got swept by Arizona.
Will Cut Down the Nets If... Utah's shooters knock down shots, and Poeltl plays the best basketball of his life. The big fella will need to play out of his mind against Duke's Jahlil Okafor, and against whomever the Utes would face in the national title game if they get there.
7. North Carolina Tar Heels
10 of 16
Title Odds: 50-1
The Road Ahead: North Carolina faces top-seeded Wisconsin in the Sweet 16. The Tar Heels are 0-3 this year against teams on the top line, with a loss to Kentucky and two losses to Duke.
Reason to Buy: Point guard Marcus Paige is playing like the guy most had as a preseason All-American. Paige is also getting more help than he had for most of the year, as his teammates usually just sat back and hoped he would carry them in close games. Freshman Justin Jackson has developed more confidence over the last few weeks and has given the Heels a second perimeter scorer.
Reason to Sell: Head coach Roy Williams has never made a Final Four at UNC when his team wasn't a No. 1 seed.
Will Cut Down the Nets If... Paige and Jackson stay hot, and North Carolina's defense plays to its potential and becomes elite. The Heels haven't brought the consistent effort required to be a great defensive team, but they do have the pieces. I'm not sure they have the perimeter shooting for it to even matter, but with Jackson playing well, this is a scary team to face right now.
6. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
11 of 16
Title Odds: 50-1
The Road Ahead: Notre Dame faces Wichita State in the Sweet 16, a team that will look very familiar. The Shockers are a lot like the Irish. They depend on strong guard play, ball movement and knocking down jumpers, and they play small with a guard at the 4 spot. Survive the Shockers, and Goliath awaits in the Elite Eight.
Reason to Buy: The best way to score against Kentucky is with great ball movement and by taking good shots. Senior guard Jerian Grant is an excellent distributor, and the Irish are the best passing team in the country. They have also proved they can knock off the elite—see two wins against Duke before the NCAA tourney.
Reason to Sell: Size. Notre Dame doesn't have much of it, and it's going to be extremely difficult to match up with Kentucky. Pat Connaughton (6'5"), who plays an undersized 4, will battle and is one tough dude, but whoever he's guarding will have six or seven inches on him. Unlike Duke, which has one beast on the blocks, Kentucky has four.
Will Cut Down the Nets If... They go on an unbelievable run shooting the ball. The Irish knock down 38.9 percent of their threes and an NCAA-best 58.3 percent of their twos, so they've consistently shot the ball well. But it will take an unbelievable shooting night to knock off Kentucky, and more size and matchup problems could await in the Final Four against Wisconsin or Arizona.
5. Gonzaga Bulldogs
12 of 16
Title Odds: 20-1
The Road Ahead: The Zags have the easiest Sweet 16 game of all the title contenders. They've already beat UCLA this year, and that was on the road. The real battle will be against Duke or Utah in the Elite Eight. They've only played one other team this year (Arizona) with the size and talent on the level of those two opponents. The Zags lost that game in overtime.
Reason to Buy: Kyle Wiltjer and Kevin Pangos. Gonzaga's best two players are shooting the lights out in the NCAA tournament. Pangos has made eight of 16 threes in the tournament, and Wiltjer has made 12 of 15 twos, six of nine threes and is a perfect 5-of-5 at the free-throw line. No remaining team has a better shooting duo than those two.
Reason to Sell: What will happen if the shots don't fall? The Zags don't exactly pride themselves on their defense as much as the other title contenders. They have the size to match up with teams like Duke, Wisconsin and Kentucky, but will they be able to get enough stops to knock those teams off?
Will Cut Down the Nets If... Wiltjer and Pangos stay hot and twin towers Przemek Karnowski and Domantas Sabonis play at an extremely high level. The Zags have less room for error because they're so dependent on their offense to carry them, so they need to shoot the ball well. And the looks are better when Karnowski and Sabonis demand attention in the paint.
4. Arizona Wildcats
13 of 16
Title Odds: 7-1
The Road Ahead: Arizona should be a heavy favorite over Xavier in the Sweet 16, but Xavier coach Chris Mack should know Sean Miller's team inside and out after five years on Miller's staff at Xavier before he left for Arizona.
After that is a potential rematch of last season's Elite Eight against Wisconsin. That game was one of the best of the 2014 tournament and has the potential to be the same this year.
Reason to Buy: Miller has been knocking on that door to get to a Final Four, reaching three Elite Eights as an assistant coach and two at Arizona. He has the talent to win a national title, and he also has the experience. Senior point guard T.J. McConnell is one of the most mentally tough players in the country and seems to have the ability to just will his team to a win.
Reason to Sell: Arizona star freshman Stanley Johnson has had an up-and-down season, and his latest game, against Ohio State, was one of the downs. Johnson scored just four points on 1-of-12 shooting. Johnson will have to play better once the Wildcats go up against the elite teams they're sure to face down the road.
Will Cut Down the Nets If... Johnson, McConnell and Gabe York shoot the ball well from the perimeter and Brandon Ashley gets hot again. Ashley scored only seven points on Sunday, but he had averaged 18.2 points on 69.8 percent shooting over his previous six games. When he and Johnson are scoring, the Wildcats have the size and talent to beat anyone, and that includes Kentucky.
3. Duke Blue Devils
14 of 16
Title Odds: 11-2
The Road Ahead: Duke now has a really tough path to the Final Four, as Utah is playing like the team it was a month ago, when the Utes appeared destined to be a No. 2 seed.
Utah freshman Jakob Poeltl has quick feet and the size (7'0") to at least present a challenge to Jahlil Okafor, and Delon Wright is one of the two best point guards in the country. The other best point guard is Notre Dame's Jerian Grant, and he's won two out of three against Duke this season. Get past the Utes, and Gonzaga, who would be a No. 1 seed most years, likely awaits in the Elite Eight.
Reason to Buy: Mike Krzyzewski has figured out a lineup that has made Duke better on both ends by moving Justise Winslow to power forward. Winslow is the X-factor for the Blue Devils. When he's playing with energy, they're on another level. Through two tourney games, he's done a little bit of everything—averaging 9.5 points, 11.5 rebounds, 6.0 assists, 2.0 steals and 2.0 blocks per game.
Reason to Sell: Much like Wisconsin, the way to beat Duke is with talented guards who can attack off the dribble. Wright is capable of giving the Blue Devils issues, and so is Gonzaga's Kevin Pangos.
Will Cut the Nets Down If... The defense that showed up against San Diego State shows up the rest of the tournament. Granted, the Aztecs have struggled to score all season, but the Blue Devils played with great effort and energy. They have the talent and scoring to take down Kentucky, but they can't do it without bringing it on the defensive end as well.
2. Wisconsin Badgers
15 of 16
Title Odds: 5-1
The Road Ahead: Wisconsin gets a hot North Carolina squad in the Sweet 16. All season long, the Tar Heels have been up and down. UNC point guard Marcus Paige hasn't been the guy he was last year, and the Heels haven't found a consistent second perimeter scorer. Well, Paige is hot now, and freshman Justin Jackson has come on strong as a secondary scoring option. The Heels will be a tough out. Get past them, and then it just keeps getting tougher with Arizona and Kentucky the likely next two games.
Reason to Buy: The Badgers have the most efficient offense in the country, and they're clicking in the postseason. In five postseason games (Big Ten included), they're scoring 1.29 points per 100 possession. That's nearly eight points per 100 possessions better than their season average.
Reason to Sell: Wisconsin's perimeter defense is its one weakness. Teams that can spread the Badgers out with guards who can attack off the dribble have given Wisconsin trouble all year. The latest example was Oregon star Joseph Young, who went for 30 points against Wisconsin in the round of 32 and kept Oregon in the game. He simply didn't have enough help to pull off the upset.
Will Cut the Nets Down If... The Badgers can stay hot on the offensive end even against the elite defenses they're sure to face in Arizona and Kentucky. If there's an offense equipped to score against those defenses, it's Wisconsin's.
1. Kentucky Wildcats
16 of 16
Title Odds: 3-2
The Road Ahead: The Wildcats face the biggest pests in college basketball in the Sweet 16, West Virginia. They've seen a pressing team before in Arkansas, but West Virginia's pressure is like nothing else. Get past the Mountaineers and they'll face a bunch of smart, veteran guards in either Notre Dame or Wichita State.
Reason to Buy: Even when the Wildcats are off offensively—as was the case for most of their round-of-32 matchup with Cincinnati—their defense can carry them and simply overwhelm opponents. It's mentally exhausting getting your shot blocked or altered over and over again. And we've yet to see Kentucky's best offense in the tournament.
Reason to Sell: Devin Booker is 0-of-7 from distance in the tournament, and Aaron Harrison has shot a disappointing 31.1 percent from deep this year. If someone can make the 'Cats a jump-shooting team and they're off, this perfect run could end.
John Calipari's first team at UK had a more talented roster—with John Wall, DeMarcus Cousins and Eric Bledsoe—and the 'Cats lost in the Elite Eight when they went 4-of-32 from deep against West Virginia.
Will Cut the Nets Down If... They don't have an off night that coincides with a hot-shooting night from one of the nation's other best teams. Teams like Wisconsin, Arizona, Gonzaga and Duke will have a chance, but they'll have to shoot the ball well from deep to pull it off. And not only is it close to impossible to score in the paint against the 'Cats, their three-point D (27.0 percent) is also the best in the country.
C.J. Moore covers college basketball for Bleacher Report. All statistics via KenPom.com unless otherwise noted. You can follow him on Twitter @CJMooreBR.
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