
Complete Cleveland Indians' 2015 Season Preview
Spring training is winding down, and most of the Cleveland Indians' roster has been set. This season promises to be an interesting one for the Tribe, as they look like legitimate contenders in the American League Central and the American League as a whole.
To prep you all for the upcoming season, I've put together a comprehensive preview for the Indians' 2015 season.
This piece will take you through everything you need to know about the Indians and includes the following:
- Spring Training Recap
- Injury Updates
- Lineup Preview
- Rotation Preview
- Bullpen Preview
- Prospects to Watch
- Breakout Candidates
- Top Keys to Success
- A Preview of the Tribe's Opening Series
- Season Outlook
In short, this is everything you need to know about the Indians as they prepare to break camp.
Let's get started.
All stats courtesy of MLB.com and Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.
Spring Training Recap
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Surprises: Michael Bourn, Jesus Aguilar
Between 2013 and 2014, Michael Bourn appeared to be on the downside of his career. That and a laundry list of lower-body injuries set the bar rather low for 2015 (in my book, anyway).
However, the 32-year-old has come out guns blazing this spring. Over 34 at-bats, the veteran outfielder boasts and impressive .382/.482/.471 triple-slash with a home run, three RBI, five runs scored and a 5-3 K/BB ratio.
Whether or not he can remain healthy over the full length of the 2015 season is going to be the primary concern with Bourn, but it looks as though he's ready to be a superbly productive player if he stays on the field.
Jesus Aguilar raked his way through an outstanding spring showing. The 24-year-old has struggled in limited time at the big league level, but over 29 spring at-bats, Aguilar owns a .414/.419/.621 batting line with one home run, three doubles and four RBI and five runs scored.
If he keeps performing to his current level (or something close and within reason), Aguilar could be in line for an increased look at an extended stay on the big league roster.
Busts: James Ramsey, David Murphy
Spring stats don't always carry a ton of weight, but in this instance, David Murphy's performance could help lessen the gap between he and Jesus Aguilar.
Murphy has struggled mightily this spring to the tune of a .214/.267/.214 slash line with zero extra-base hits, three RBI, two runs scored and a 1-2 K/BB ratio over 28 spring at-bats. Despite his poor showing this spring, Murphy is still likely to retain his role as the team's DH (at least until Nick Swisher comes off the DL) but Aguilar has definitely lessened the gap between the two.
James Ramsey was the other big disappointment in camp this year.
A month ago, I called Ramsey my favorite prospect. Whether that was a curse or not has yet to be seen, but it certainly didn't pan out well for him this spring. The 25-year-old managed a paltry .136/.240/.318 batting line with one home run, one double, three RBI, two runs scored and a 9-3 K/BB ratio over 22 at-bats.
Ramsey was likely headed to Triple-A anyway, but the team's No. 12 prospect (per Baseball America's Prospect Handbook) had a very disappointing showing nonetheless.
Surprise Cut: Scott Downs
The odds were stacked against the 39-year-old lefty, but for a little while, it appeared as though Scott Downs might earn a spot in the Tribe's bullpen.
Through 5.1 innings pitched this spring, Downs had allowed just two earned runs on five hits and two walks, while striking out three.
Downs performed well when called upon, but it wasn't enough to earn him a spot in the crowded and competitive Cleveland bullpen. Downs received the news on March 24, as reported by Paul Hoynes of The Cleveland Plain Dealer, and the Indians now have a major decision on their hands.
If Downs is on the roster with five or fewer days before the season opener, he's due a $100,000 bonus. So, not only is he a surprise cut, it's entirely possible he re-enters free agency prior to the start of the 2015 season.
Others considered: Shaun Marcum, Bruce Chen
Injury Updates Entering Opening Day
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Nick Swisher
Nick Swisher told Paul Hoynes of The Cleveland Plain Dealer that his goal was to be in the Indians' Opening Day lineup. At this point, that goal looks more like a pipe dream, as the 34-year-old has yet to appear in a spring training game.
Late last week, Hoynes noted that Swisher was likely to start the season on the DL.
Finally, on March 23, we got confirmation from Terry Francona, via Paul Hoynes, that Swisher would indeed be unavailable when the team breaks camp early next month. Barring a sudden change for the best, expect that to be the case for the Indians' season opener against the Houston Astros.
Gavin Floyd
MLB.com's Jordan Bastian told us back on March 16 that newcomer Gavin Floyd was going to need surgery to repair a fractured olecranon bone in his throwing elbow.
Floyd suffered the same injury while returning from Tommy John surgery last year, and it appears as though he could be out for the entire 2015 season.
With no timetable set for his return to baseball-related activities, it looks like Floyd may never suit up for the Tribe.
Jason Kipnis
Jason Kipnis has been dealing with a back injury for a while, and MLB.com's Jordan Bastian noted on March 21 that Kipnis might require some at-bats in minor league games before playing in a big-league spring training game.
Bastian went on the next day to tweet that Kipnis would not be in the lineup for Monday's game, and that the Indians wanted him to go through a full workout before returning to game action.
On March 24, Francona confirmed that Kipnis had taken some swings in the cage, and that the goal was to have him participate in a minor league game on Wednesday, via MLB.com's Jordan Bastian.
Lineup Preview
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Projected Go-To Lineup
| Player | 2014 Stats |
| CF Michael Bourn (L) | 106 G, .257/.314/.360, 17 2B, 3 HR, 28 RBI, 57 R |
| SS Jose Ramirez (S) | 68 G, .262/.300/.346, 10 2B, 2 HR, 17 RBI, 27 R |
| LF Michael Brantley (L) | 156 G, .327/.385/.506, 45 2B, 20 HR, 97 RBI, 94 R |
| 1B Carlos Santana (S) | 152 G, .231/.365/.427, 25 2B, 27 HR, 85 RBI, 68 R |
| RF Brandon Moss (L) | 147 G, .234/.334/.438, 23 2B, 25 HR, 81 RBI, 70 R |
| C Yan Gomes (R) | 135 G, .278/.313/.472, 25 2B, 21 HR, 74 RBI, 61 R |
| 2B Jason Kipnis (L) | 129 G, .240/.310/.330, 25 2B, 6 HR, 41 RBI, 61 R |
| DH David Murphy (R) | 129 G, .262/.319/.385, 25 2B, 8 HR, 58 RBI, 40 R |
| 3B Lonnie Chisenhall (L) | 142 G, .280/.343/.427, 29 2B, 13 HR, 59 RBI, 62 R |
Projected Bench
| Player | 2014 Stats |
| 1B Jesus Aguilar (R) | 19 G, .121/.211/.121, 0 2B, 0 HR, 3 RBI, 2 R |
| UTL Mike Aviles (R) | 113 G, .247/.273/.343, 16 2B, 5 HR, 39 RBI, 38 R |
| C Roberto Perez (R) | 29 G, .271/.311/.365, 5 2B, 1 HR, 4 RBI, 10 R |
| OF Ryan Raburn (R) | 74 G, .200/.250/.297, 7 2B, 4 HR, 22 RBI, 18 R |
Analysis
The Indians' lineup and bench are much improved over the group they took into the regular season last year. There are some health issues including Michael Bourn and Brandon Moss, but providing they stay healthy there's a lot of potential in the group.
The lineup will be anchored by Cleveland mainstays Michael Brantley and Carlos Santana. The two players have blossomed into solid options at their respective positions, and Brantley will look to duplicate what was easily his best season as a professional in 2014.
Yan Gomes also managed a solid showing last year, logging 21 home runs and 74 RBI, both good for third among qualified catchers.
Jason Kipnis will look to bounce back from a disappointing, injury-riddled 2014 campaign, and he should jump up in the batting order pretty quickly once he proves to be at full health.
Young shortstop Jose Ramirez held his own over 68 games last year, posting a .262/.300/.346 triple slash in just his age-21 season. Ramirez is in a tough spot holding down the starting shortstop gig until top prospect Francisco Lindor is ready to bump him to second base, or the bench.
Brandon Moss, Lonnie Chisenhall and David Murphy will round out the Tribe batting order.
Moss had an outstanding first half with the Oakland A's last year but fell flat in the second half, due in large part to a hip injury which was resolved through offseason hip surgery. He'll look to bounce back from that second-half letdown and lead the Indians in the power department.
Chisenhall had the best season of his career in 2014, and the 26-year-old will look to expand on that performance over his second-straight full season of work manning the hot corner.
That leaves us with the team's stand-in DH, Murphy. Murphy is biding his time as the team's DH until Nick Swisher becomes healthy enough to jump into the rotation at the position. Until then, the 33-year-old is working for additional playing time as a bench player/fifth outfielder.
All things considered, this is a group that could do some serious damage if they steer relatively clear of the injury bug.
Rotation Preview
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Starting Rotation
| Player | 2014 Stats |
| Corey Kluber | 34 GS, 18-9, 2.44 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 269 K, 235.2 IP |
| Carlos Carrasco | 40 G, 14 GS, 8-7, 2.55 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 140 K, 134 IP |
| Trevor Bauer | 26 GS, 5-8, 4.18 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 143 K, 153 IP |
| TJ House | 19 G, 18 GS, 5-3, 3.35 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 80 K, 102 IP |
| Danny Salazar | 20 GS, 6-8, 4.25 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 120 K, 110 IP |
Analysis
The Indians' starting rotation has immense potential.
Reigning Cy Young Award winner Corey Kluber is back to head up the rotation, and ZiPS projections have him putting up a 5.4 WAR season with just over 200 innings pitched and well over 200 strikeouts. Having an ace like Kluber atop the rotation is invaluable, as it essentially prevents the Indians from going into a prolonged slump.
Carlos Carrasco is expected to take up the No. 2 spot in the rotation, and based on what the 28-year-old was able to do down the stretch in 2014, he looks primed for a big-time breakout as a starter in 2015.
Over the course of the team's final 43 games, Carrasco functioned as a starter, allowing a 1.30 ERA and a 0.81 WHIP over 69 innings pitched. In case you're wondering, that's better than Kluber pitched in that same time.
Trevor Bauer will work as the tam's No. 3 starter this year, and the 24-year-old is in line for a possible breakout campaign. The UCLA product put up a 4.18 ERA over 26 starts last year, but had several stretches where he looked like a No. 2 or 3 starter, namely between Apr 9-May31, Jun 21-Jul 23 and Aug 8-30.
Those stretches of play included 16 of Bauer's 26 starts, but the young righty struggled at times with throwing strikes, and it resulted in some short outings of less than five innings pitched. If he limits those types of outings in 2015, he'll prove to be a nice compliment to Kluber and Carrasco.
After the No. 3 spot, things become a little less predictable. Paul Hoynes noted back in December (pre-Gavin Floyd injury) that the final spot in the rotation would come down to a battle between Danny Salazar, TJ House, Zach McAllister and Josh Tomlin.
As it currently stands, those are the only players left in camp with a shot at the job, as both Bruce Chen and Shaun Marcum were informed that they would would not make the Opening Day roster, per Paul Hoynes of The Cleveland Plain Dealer.
Zach McAllister has no options left and will make the roster as either a starter or reliever.
McAllister is a strong candidate to bounce back from a down 2014 season. The 27-year-old pitched to an ERA of 5.23 last season, but his FIP (3.45), K/9 (7.7), BB/9 (2.9) and BABIP (.333) suggest that he was extremely unlucky last year.
That said, the three-year-veteran could occupy a different role with this team.
That leaves the fifth spot in the rotation for Salazar, Tomlin or House.
A true power arm, Salazar offers more upside than House, though the risk factor is a bit higher as well.
At times, Salazar has looked like his 2013 self. Other times, the 25-year-old has looked lost, and like a slightly worse version of his 2014 self. Even so, there's still reason to believe that he'll right the ship and pitch to his full capabilities in 2015.
Still, to this point, Salazar has out-pitched House, but by a very slim margin.
Salazar has been wild at times this spring, and he could very well pitch himself back to Triple-A, a notion that Terry Pluto of The Cleveland Plain Dealer echoed over a week ago.
At that time, he saw House as the clear-cut No. 4. Things have changed slightly since then, though, and with Josh Tomlin nursing a sore shoulder, it appears as though both Salazar and House could earn spots in the rotation.
Bullpen Preview
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Projected Bullpen
| Role | Player | 2014 Stats |
|---|---|---|
| Closer | Cody Allen | 76 G, 24 SV, 6-4, 2.07 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 91 K, 69.2 IP |
| SU | Scott Atchison | 70 G, 2 SV, 6-0, 2.75 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 49 K, 72 IP |
| SU | Bryan Shaw | 80 G, 2 SV, 5-5, 2.59 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 64 IP, 76.1 IP |
| MID | Kyle Crockett | 43 G, 0 SV, 4-1, 1.80 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 28 K, 30 IP |
| MID | Nick Hagadone | 35 G, 0 SV, 1-0, 2.70 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 27 K, 23.1 IP |
| MID | Marc Rzepczynski | 73 G, 1 SV, 0-3, 2.74 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 46 K, 46 IP |
| LR | Zach McAllister | 22 G, 15 GS, 4-7, 5.23 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 74 K, 86 IP |
Analysis
The Indians' bullpen wasn't exactly a strength, but it didn't kill them either. The group logged a 3.1 WAR in 2014, good for ninth in the American League.
Beyond that disappointing WAR value, the group logged a 3.12 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP and ratios including 8.8 K/9, 3.2 BB/9 and 2.74 K/BB. Standard metrics show the Indians having been a relatively solid group, but advanced metrics tell a somewhat different story.
This year's bullpen, though, figures to be better in both areas.
Cody Allen will enter the season as the team's closer and help to shore up what was arguably the weakest part of the team's bullpen until he took over full-time in that role last year. Allen was magnificent last year, notching 24 saves in 28 attempts.
Behind him, the bullpen will consist of a load of familiar faces, and a group capable of making sure that very few games slip away from the Tribe in the game's latter stages.
The only position in the bullpen that is up for grabs is a long-relief spot. The bullpen's composition hasn't been completely decided, but I'm going to make a prediction to round it out.
Based on the confirmed, and predicted composition of the starting rotation, it looks like Zach McAllister is the best option to round out the bullpen. The 27-year-old has struggled at times as a starter, and he seems better suited for relief duty anyway.
When we look back on the 2015 season, the bullpen should prove to have been one of the Indians' biggest strengths.
Prospects to Watch
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Francisco Lindor
Let's get the obvious out of the way first. Francisco Lindor is the biggest prospect to watch in the Indians' farm system.
Between the Double-A and Triple-A levels last season, Lindor, a switch-hitter, posted a .276/.338/.389 batting line with 11 home runs, four triples, 16 doubles, 62 RBI, 75 runs scored and 28 stolen bases. In short, Lindor killed it, and the young shortstop has an opportunity to transition well to the big leagues.
The 21-year-old shortstop has one of the best gloves in the game, and while his hit tool may require a little more time in the minors, there's little doubt that Lindor will join the 25-man roster sometime this season, possibly as soon as June.
Jesus Aguilar
Somehow, Jesus Aguilar has managed to retain his prospect status over the last few seasons. Realistically, he could have spent almost the entire 2014 season with the club, but he'll get that opportunity in 2015.
Aguilar has the tools to be a standout option as a DH. With plus raw power, and in-game power that grades out as above-average, Aguilar and his 6'3", 250-pound frame are a near-shoo-in for 20-30 home runs per season.
The only two things to worry about with Aguilar are how much playing time he will receive at the MLB level, and his swing-and-miss rate. One of the big knocks on Aguilar is that his swing is choppy, and allows for too many swing-and-miss opportunities.
If he's able to cut down on those swings and misses, it'll bring more extra-base-hit and home run potential to his game. This, in turn, can help to alleviate that first problem I noted, that being the issue of playing time.
Currently, Aguilar is set to function in a platoon at the DH position with David Murphy, but he's in line for a decrease in playing time once Nick Swisher gets healthy. A solid showing in the season's early goings could go a long way to assuring him a roster spot through the entirety of the 2015 season.
Giovanny Urshela
Giovanny Urshela tends to slip through the cracks when discussing the Indians' top prospects, but the 23-year-old prospect has a serious chance to make waves by the end of 2015.
Urshela has an above-average arm and plus fielding ability, which should allow him to stick at third base. His offensive game is a bit of a question mark, but last year, the Colombia native flashed power (.491 SLG) and a selectivity (.331 OBP) that teams would hope for in an an eventual third baseman.
Urshela will spend a good deal of his 2015 season at Triple-A Columbus (he wrapped up 2014 there) but if Lonnie Chisenhall's 2014 campaign proves to be a flash in the pan, don't be surprised if Urshela is promoted to fill in at the hot corner.
Breakout Candidates
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Trevor Bauer
If I write it enough times, it has to come true, right? I've been touting Bauer as a breakout candidate since before the 2014 season, and while he did experience a mini-breakout of sorts last year, I'm looking for a full-fledged breakout in 2015.
Bauer made 26 starts for the Indians last season, allowing a 4.18 ERA over 153 innings pitched. Not bad for a guy who had pitched just 33.1 innings as a big leaguer prior to 2014.
Compared to the pitcher we saw in 2013, Bauer looked like a totally different person on the mound. Although he made 10 starts in which he failed to work six innings, Bauer saw major improvements in his walk and strikeout rates.
Beyond the improvements shown in those two areas, Bauer allowed far fewer home runs (0.9 HR/9) than he had in his previous big league efforts (1.6 HR/9 in 2013 and 1.1 HR/9 in 2012) and showed an increased ability to throw strikes (62.9 percent strike rate in 2014).
One thing to watch with Bauer is how well he induces ground balls. In years past—including 2014—Bauer has struggled keeping the ball out of the air. His career GB/FB rate of 0.59 suggests that he's getting roughly one ground ball for every two fly balls, and that's a dangerous way to live as a pitcher.
Should he prove more capable of keeping the ball on the ground, Bauer could be in line for a huge breakout in 2015.
Top Keys to Success
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Good Health
This is true of any team, I guess, but it's especially true of the 2015 Cleveland Indians.
Between Michael Bourn, Nick Swisher and Brandon Moss, there are plenty of injury concerns in the lineup. Last year, the team spent extended periods of time with Bourn and Swisher on the shelf, and with Moss coming off offseason hip surgery, there's cause for concern there as well.
Currently, Swisher is the only one who appears to be experiencing the lingering effects of his injury/surgery, as both Bourn and Moss are playing well in spring training.
With Bourn and Moss healthy, the Indians have the makings of a solid speed-power combo capable of heading up, and anchoring the lineup. Without them, well, things could get ugly.
The team can deal with one recurring injury (Swisher fits the bill for that issue), but losing Bourn and Moss could cripple the offense.
Continued Success from the Rotation
The Indians' starting rotation proved incredibly capable in 2014, especially during the stretch run. This year, the group will enter the season looking a little different than it did at this time in 2014.
As was mentioned back in the earlier portion of this piece, the starting rotation has the potential to be one of the best in the American League. However, there's some bust potential as well.
Aside from Corey Kluber, there is no rotation option that has an established track record of big league success. Carlos Carrasco, Trevor Bauer and McAllister all offer enough potential to make this a rather deadly 2-4, but there is, of course, the matter of living up to that potential.
The fifth spot is still somewhat up in the air, but TJ House has proved in limited big league action that he belongs.
If the 2-5 spots come through, the Indians will have a dominant starting rotation to pair with what should be a sufficient starting lineup. However, if one or more struggle, then the Indians will be hampered by a disappointing starting rotation.
My bet is on the former, rather than the latter.
Defense, Defense, Defense
For the Indians, being better defensively should be a major focal point. The team ranked last in Rdrs (-74) and fielding percentage (.981), but with Bourn returning to the outfield, Moss in right and Jose Ramirez manning the shortstop position, this should prove a much more capable defensive group than the one from 2014.
Bourn, so long as he stays healthy, is one of the top defensive options in baseball, and though he's not quite as fast as he used to be, he still has the range to patrol center field.
Moss proved to be a solid defensive option in right for the Athletics last year, posting a UZR/150 of 19.2, while making 13 out-of-zone plays, good for a .972 RZR, per Fangraphs.com.
At shortstop, Ramirez should be a good enough option to hold both the team and fans over until Francisco Lindor is ready for big league action.
A combination of good health and upgrades should make the Indians a significantly better defensive unit in 2015.
Opening Series Preview
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Opponent: Houston Astros
Location: Houston, TX
Dates (Time): 4/6 (7:00 p.m. ET), 4/8 (8:10 p.m. ET), 4/9 (8:10 p.m. ET)
Game 1 Probable Pitching Matchup: Corey Kluber (CLE) vs. Scott Feldman (HOU)
Game 2 Probable Pitching Matchup: Carlos Carrasco (CLE) vs. Dallas Keuchel (HOU)
Game 3 Probable Pitching Matchup: Trevor Bauer (CLE) vs. Collin McHugh (HOU)
Analysis
The Cleveland Indians will look to get the season started off on the right foot with a series against the Houston Astros, one of the up-and-coming franchises in the American League.
The Astros revamped their lineup over the offseason, including the acquisitions of Jed Lowrie (free agent), Evan Gattis (trade) and Colby Rasmus (free agent), adding to an already solid core of players including 2014 AL batting champ Jose Altuve, former top prospect George Springer, catcher Jason Castro and power-hitting first baseman Chris Carter.
The team also beefed up its bullpen and starting rotation with a number of new players. In short, this team is a lot better than it has been in recent years, and it could give the Indians a good run in the season's opening series.
I'm going to give the game one nod to the Indians based solely on the fact that Corey Kluber is going to get the nod as the Opening Day starter. Kluber is capable of neutralizing any offense, and though Scott Feldman is a good option to face off against Kluber, one or two runs might be enough to get the Indians a victory.
Game 2 should provide a little more even matchup with Carrasco and Keuchel going head-to-head. Keuchel had an outstanding 2014 season, allowing just a 2.93 ERA over 29 starts (200 innings pitched). However, for as good as Keuchel was in 2014, Carrasco was that much better as the season wound down.
Over the season's final two months, Carrasco made 10 starts, allowing just a 1.30 ERA and a 0.81 WHIP over 69 innings pitched. The final two months of Carrasco's 2014 season were no fluke, and he looks ready to reach the high billing he previously received as a prospect in the Indians' and Phillies' farm systems.
Game 2 narrowly goes to the Indians.
In Game 3, the Astros will finally get the best of the Tribe. Collin McHugh is a trendy pick to follow up on a stellar 2014 campaign, and while I like Bauer as a breakout candidate, he's likely to hit a roadblock or two along the way.
The pressure that comes with starting a game in a team's opening series is something that Bauer isn't used to facing, and the 24-year-old could falter in Game 3. No sweep, for now anyway.
Prediction: Cleveland takes the opening series 2-1
2015 Indians Season Outlook
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Projected AL Central Standings
Cleveland Indians: 85-77
Detroit Tigers: 82-80
Chicago White Sox: 80-82
Kansas City Royals: 75-87
Minnesota Twins: 70-92
Analysis
The Indians are my pick to win the AL Central this year.
Aside from Nick Swisher, the team is healthy, and that's a big plus for the Indians in 2015. Providing they remain healthy, the Indians will have one of the most complete lineups in the division, and their starting rotation has enough firepower to be the best in the American League.
That's not to say the Indians are going to run away with the division, though.
The Royals are coming off an outstanding season in which they were the American League's representative in the World Series, and while their rotation took a hit with the departure of James Shields, their lineup is still a formidable one.
The Twins are getting better, but they're still not there yet. They'll fall to the bottom of a very competitive division.
The White Sox put a charge in their rebuilding effort this offseason with the additions of Melky Cabrera, Adam LaRoche, Geovany Soto, Emilio Bonifacio, J.B. Shuck, Jeff Samardzija, David Robertson, Zach Duke, Matt Albers and Dan Jennings. The White Sox could contend for a division title this year, but next year looks like their year, as they'll get contributions from top prospects like Micah Johnson, Tim Anderson, Jacob May, Courtney Hawkins, Carlos Rodon, Francellis Montas and Tyler Danish.
The Tigers pose the biggest threat to the Indians' hopes of claiming a division title. The team has a solid rotation headed up by David Price and Justin Verlander, and the lineup is still potent and features former MVP Miguel Cabrera, Ian Kinsler, Victor Martinez, J.D. Martinez and Yoenis Cespedes, among others.
Even so, the Indians look like a more complete team than any other in the division. If they're able to steer clear of major injuries, the Tribe looks like 2015's team to beat in the AL Central.

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