
NFL Draft 2015: Latest 1st-Round Mock Draft and Franchise-Changing Prospects
The peak of NFL free agency has passed, and active teams like the Philadelphia Eagles, New York Jets and Buffalo Bills spent big to improve their teams.
But free agency is a fickle friend, and big-name veterans don't guarantee franchise success. Evan Horowitz of The Boston Globe found that of all teams in the last decade that signed a top-five free agent, they on average ended up winning the same amount of games. Including top-10 free agents, teams enjoyed 0.1 additional wins.
Thus, the draft is still the best way for teams to address holes, strengthen units and prepare for the future. There are a handful of prospects in this draft class that, should they meet their projected potential at the professional level, could be true franchise-changers for the teams that draft them.
Let's take a look at how the first round is shaping up at this point in the offseason and highlight three of those such prospects.
| 1 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Jameis Winston, QB, Florida State |
| 2 | Tennessee Titans | Leonard Williams, DT, USC |
| 3 | Jacksonville Jaguars | Dante Fowler, OLB, Florida |
| 4 | Oakland Raiders | Kevin White, WR, West Virginia |
| 5 | Washington Redskins | Shane Ray, DE, Missouri |
| 6 | New York Jets | Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon |
| 7 | Chicago Bears | Randy Gregory, DE, Nebraska |
| 8 | Atlanta Falcons | Vic Beasley, OLB, Clemson |
| 9 | New York Giants | Brandon Scherff, OT, Iowa |
| 10 | St. Louis Rams | Amari Cooper, WR, Alabama |
| 11 | Minnesota Vikings | La'el Collins, OT, LSU |
| 12 | Cleveland Browns | Danny Shelton, DT, Washington |
| 13 | New Orleans Saints | Alvin Dupree, DE, Kentucky |
| 14 | Miami Dolphins | DeVante Parker, WR, Louisville |
| 15 | San Francisco 49ers | Trae Waynes, CB, Michigan State |
| 16 | Houston Texans | Landon Collins, SS, Alabama |
| 17 | San Diego Chargers | Eddie Goldman, DT, Florida State |
| 18 | Kansas City Chiefs | Jaelen Strong, WR, Arizona State |
| 19 | Cleveland Browns (via Buffalo) | T.J. Clemmings, OT, Pittsburgh |
| 20 | Philadelphia Eagles | Dorial Green-Beckham, WR, Oklahoma |
| 21 | Cincinnati Bengals | Andrus Peat, OT, Stanford |
| 22 | Pittsburgh Steelers | Marcus Peters, CB, Washington |
| 23 | Detroit Lions | Ereck Flowers, OT, Miami |
| 24 | Arizona Cardinals | Melvin Gordon, RB, Wisconsin |
| 25 | Carolina Panthers | D.J. Humphries, OT, Florida |
| 26 | Baltimore Ravens | Kevin Johnson, CB, Wake Forest |
| 27 | Dallas Cowboys | Malcom Brown, DT, Texas |
| 28 | Denver Broncos | Jordan Phillips, DT, Oklahoma |
| 29 | Indianapolis Colts | Benardrick McKinney, LB, Mississippi State |
| 30 | Green Bay Packers | Eric Kendricks, ILB, UCLA |
| 31 | New Orleans Saints (via Seattle) | Jalen Collins, CB, LSU |
| 32 | New England Patriots | Arik Armstead, DT, Oregon |
Franchise-Changing Prospects
Multiple teams in the NFL appeared last season to have reached a tipping point, where most of the major parts were in place save for one important position. Given these teams' performances last season, as well as their free-agency moves, the players they draft in April could help turn around the franchise.
Now, drafting these three players may not lead these teams to division titles, but they'll help them become truly competitive.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Jameis Winston, QB, Florida State
Jameis Winston's personal history might cause some to question his judgment skills. But his football IQ and on-field knowledge will make it impossible for the Buccaneers to pass on him, hoping instead that the potential future star of their franchise has matured enough to handle the job.
"I think he's probably the smartest player I've ever interviewed," one team personnel man told Bleacher Report's Mike Freeman at the combine. "Football IQ as good as I've ever seen."
Per Freeman, multiple individuals compared Winston's football knowledge to Peyton Manning's.
Teams also told Freeman that, because they felt misled by Johnny Manziel, who also did well in combine interviews only to flounder in the league, they entered interviews with Winston with a great deal of skepticism. Winston, however, seemingly satisfactorily overcame those doubts.
The pieces are in place for Winston in Tampa Bay's system. Tampa Bay brought in offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter to replace makeshift 2014 offensive coordinator Marcus Arroyo.
Koetter has a history of utilizing tight ends well in Jacksonville and Atlanta. That means second-year weapon Austin Seferian-Jenkins could become a useful go-to for Winston as his comfort level in the league grows.
The Bucs also have 6'5" phenom Mike Evans, a young and talented weapon with whom Winston could build chemistry and grow.
Winston's big arm and pocket presence, lauded by scouts, could help the Bucs elevate their existing weapons. His addition to the team could re-make the offense from its disappointing 2014 showing and change the course for 2015 and beyond.
Oakland Raiders: Kevin White, WR, West Virginia
The Oakland Raiders had a phenomenal draft in 2014, adding key pieces on both sides of the ball like quarterback Derek Carr and linebacker Khalil Mack.
Carr had an impressive rookie season, with 3,270 total yards and throwing 21 touchdowns to just 12 interceptions. Oakland gave him some support in 2014 with third-round left guard Gabe Jackson and trying to stack the offense prior to his arrival with wide receiver James Jones.
In fact, NFL.com's Chris Wesseling graded Oakland's rookie class in 2014 as the best in the NFL.
However, the Raiders finished 26th in the league last season in passing offense, with only 205 passing yards per game. While Oakland helped fortify its line for Carr by adding center Rodney Hudson on a five-year deal worth $44.5 million, it missed out on difference-making wide receiver Randall Cobb.
That's where Kevin White comes in.
Per NFL.com's Bucky Brooks, in the debate of whether the Raiders should take White or Amari Cooper, coaches seem to favor Cooper for his Day-1 potential, while scouts favor White's long-term potential.
Building around Carr, however, the Raiders could use a weapon like White who could change the face of their offense and produce for them for a long time.
White blew everyone away with his 4.35-second 40-yard dash at the combine. He also showed off his strength with 23 reps on the bench press. He also has preferred size for the position over Cooper, at 6'3" and 215 pounds.
White has "terrific inside release to beat press coverage," per NFL.com's Lance Zierlein, a skill that will make Carr's life much easier. Meanwhile, Cooper tends to adjust or even stop mid-route, which could lead to interceptions for Carr.
Given the potential Carr has, the Raiders need to give him a weapon with equally high upside to build a high-octane offensive attack. White is that player.
New York Jets: Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon
Many Jets fans would not like to see New York select Marcus Mariota with the No. 6 overall pick, given the team's other needs at pass-rusher and on the offensive line.
But we're looking at selections who could change the fortunes of a franchise for the better, and there's no denying that the Jets have been missing the most important element for success for years: an above-average quarterback.
Ryan Fitzpatrick gives the Jets a veteran presence in the locker room, but it would be shocking to see him win the starting job. Sure, he has familiarity with Jets offensive coordinator Chan Gailey, with whom he played in Buffalo from 2010-2012, but he's likely in New York as an emergency backup. His career interception percentage of 3.5 and 123-101 TD-to-INT ratio, per Pro-Football-Reference.com, won't help New York.
When the Jets acquired Fitzpatrick, general manager Mike Maccagnan said it wouldn't affect whether or not the team drafts a quarterback. "I would say simply, I don't think any player is either on or off our board in terms of what we would do, based on our current roster," he said, per ESPN.com's Rich Cimini.
New York has the pieces in place on offense. The trade for Brandon Marshall, who joins Eric Decker and Jace Amaro, is a game-changer in and of itself, if he has the right player throwing to him. Fitzpatrick and Geno Smith aren't those players.
Marcus Mariota could be.
Mariota combines accuracy (105 touchdowns to just 14 interceptions in his college career), pocket presence and an ability to make plays outside the pocket into one tall, strong and smart package. The system in Oregon supported those numbers, much as it did for Nick Foles, and Mariota will need to make a satisfactory adjustment to the pro level, namely in learning to read defenses and make progressions accurately and quickly.
He combines the same ability to make plays outside the pocket that Smith offers but with a pocket presence the latter will never have.
The Jets have a private workout scheduled with Mariota for March 28 in Oregon, per Cimini. Maccagnan and head coach Todd Bowles will attend.
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