Australia vs. Pakistan: Betting Tips, Latest Odds, Form Guide and Prediction
Australia will continue their quest to become five-time world champions when they take on Pakistan at the Adelaide Oval in the quarter-finals of the 2015 Cricket World Cup on Friday.
The co-hosts have been in fine form throughout the tournament so far, only suffering one defeat in the pool stages. They have a clutch of quality batsmen, bowlers capable of taking wickets and some of the best fielders in the world, and they are rightly the big favourites coming into this one.
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Pakistan won’t be a walkover, though. After a tough start to the competition they’ve won four matches in succession and will go into this game bristling with confidence. With the pressure off, they could well cause a shock.
Here’s how the bookmakers are seeing this one, the form of each team coming into the game and a look at where the value is for punters looking to make a quick buck when these two go head-to-head:
| Match Odds | 1-5 | 7-2 |
| Tournament Odds | 13-8 | 28-1 |
| Pool Stage Form | WXLWWW | LLWWWW |
| Australia | Odds | Pakistan | Odds |
| David Warner | 3-1 | Misbah-ul-Haq | 7-2 |
| Steve Smith | 4-1 | Sarfraz Ahmed | 7-2 |
| Aaron Finch | 4-1 | Ahmed Shehzhad | 7-2 |
| Michael Clarke | 9-2 | Younes Khan | 4-1 |
| Glenn Maxwell | 11-2 | Nasir Jamshed | 5-1 |
| Australia | Odds | Pakistan | Odds |
| Mitchell Starc | 9-4 | Wahab Riaz | 11-4 |
| Mitchell Johnson | 11-4 | Sohail Khan | 3-1 |
| James Faulkner | 15-4 | Shahid Afridi | 15-4 |
| Pat Cummins | 15-4 | Rahat Ali | 4-1 |
| Josh Hazlewood | 4-1 | Yasir Shah | 4-1 |
Pakistan Overpriced at 7-2 to Cause an Upset
There’s little doubt that Australia are a much better side than Pakistan. While there isn’t much to choose between the two sides in terms of bowling, the Baggy Greens are sharper in the field and have much more variety in their batting line-up. But 7-2 is a big price for the 1992 winners to come through in this encounter.
Pakistan are a team who thrive on confidence and, after already beating South Africa in the pool stages, it's clear they know what’s required to get over the line in big matches.
Dan Brettig certainly thinks this crop of Pakistan players has enough about them to pose Australia a serious challenge:
While Australia have been able to pile on quick runs late in the innings at this tournament, with Pakistan’s bowling attack they’ll find it very difficult to do so. At the death, men like Wahab Riaz—who is excellent value at 5-2 to be his team's top bowler—and Rahat Ali have been outstanding, bowling with ingenuity and acumen to prevent some top-quality batsmen from increasing the run rate.
As noted by Harsha Bhogle, if the ball starts to reverse swing late on, Pakistan can tear through any opposition batting line-up:
But if Pakistan are going to spring a shock in Adelaide they’ll have to bat very well, too. The stadium in the South is well known for its idyllic batting conditions and as such, whichever team wins the toss will be delighted to get in and bat first. If Pakistan are afforded that luxury, they’ll be relying on Sarfraz Ahmed to set the tone.
As noted by BBC Test Match Special, the opener played superbly under high pressure in Pakistan’s must-win clash with Ireland last time out:
You suspect that a stellar batting effort up front and some astute bowling in response is Pakistan’s best chance of victory here. As such, they’ll need Sarfraz—who looks a decent price to be his team's top batsman at 7-2—captain Misbah-ul-Haq or Ahmed Shehzad to make a sizeable score in order to give their classy seamers a chance of restricting the Baggy Greens.
While Pakistan are far from a sure thing here, they are a team who are difficult to stop when they get on a roll. Australia boast a formidable XI and should win, but if you fancy putting on a little to accumulate a lot, there is definitely some real value to be had by backing the 1992 winners to upset the co-hosts and move into the quarter-finals.
Prediction: Pakistan (if they win the toss)
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