March Madness 2015: Odds and Predictions for Top 2nd-Round Matchups

March Madness earns its label in the round of 64.

Some things are predictable, sure. Kentucky over Hampton? Bet the car, mortgage and maybe even the kids.

No, the "madness" creeps in with those tough matchups where seed means little and everything is at stake. Say, the showdown between No. 6 Butler and No. 11 Texas in the Midwest part of the bracket. 

At face value, Butler wins, but if the Longhorns' coaching improves and freshman sensation Myles Turner explodes, who knows?

Right there is the beauty of the event. To place bettors at an advantage against the house, let's dig deep on some of the second round's tougher matchups.

Key Tournament Information

Dates: March 17–April 6

Channels: CBS, TBS, TNT and truTV

Live Stream: March Madness Live

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Breaking Down Top 2nd-Round Matchups 

No. 7 VCU vs. No. 10 Ohio State (-4)

Las Vegas seems to have a handle on how this one turns out despite seed.

It's an interesting bout, to say the least. The Virginia Commonwealth Rams, better known as VCU, rank 14th in ESPN's RPI rankings, whereas the Ohio State Buckeyes come in at 39th. Both teams feature just one win against the RPI Top 25, although VCU's strength of schedule ranked ninth compared to Ohio State's 74th.

VCU sounds like the better team on paper. It sure doesn't hurt that senior Treveon Graham, who averages 16.3 points and 7.0 rebounds, steers the ship.

So where's Vegas getting this line? One factor—health.

The Rams will be without guard Briante Weber, a defensive force and great facilitator, due to an injury suffered in late January.

Ohio State freshman point guard D'Angelo Russell has the look of a top-five NBA pick, averaging 19.3 points, 5.6 rebounds and 5.1 assists. As Bill Rabinowitz of The Columbus Dispatch points out, Weber's absence is bad news for VCU:

If VCU was at full strength, this one might be a different story.

Few teams in the nation can stop Russell, so it's hard to imagine a VCU squad without a starter at the position can do so. Be sure to take the Buckeyes by the allotted amount.

Prediction: Ohio State 76, VCU 69

No. 8 San Diego State (-3) vs. No. 9 St. John's

Vegas might be a tad off on this one. 

San Diego State is going to take it home by more than just three points.

Make no mistake, the St. John's Red Storm is a solid squad. A 36th-ranked RPI and an 8-4 mark in its last 12 can attest. Senior D'Angelo Harrison and his 17.5 points per game help his team to average just over 71 points per contest.

Those factors just go out the window against San Diego State's suffocating defense.

Coach Steve Fisher's Aztecs rank fourth in adjusted defensive efficiency at KenPom.com. A strong defensive acumen is why the team can average just 61.8 points per game and still pile up 26 wins and a 27th rank in RPI. It's why the Aztecs almost upset then-No. 3 Arizona in November and tout wins against Utah, BYU, Pittsburgh and Colorado State (twice).

Yes, a lot of history goes out the window in the Big Dance. Fine. What doesn't, though, is how San Diego State can neutralize St. John's biggest strength. CBS Sports' Jon Rothstein explains:

"

St. John's has caused mismatches for opponents this season by playing with five smaller players on the court at the same time, but the issue for the Red Storm is San Diego State is more than capable of defending against that style. Steve Fisher doesn't put labels on his players in terms of their positions and normally plays with five interchangeable pieces who can switch everything on defense. In other words, St. John's ability to cause matchup problems with its quickness will likely be less effective against the Aztecs

"

Small ball isn't going to work. Don't forget about the 6'10", 235-pound Skylar Spencer patrolling the paint, either—he averages 2.5 blocks per game.

Maybe defensive basketball isn't the most appealing brand in March, but it will get the job done for the Aztecs.

Prediction: San Diego State 60, St. John's 52

No. 7 Michigan State (-5.5) vs. No. 10 Georgia

Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images

Michigan State is an impossible team to figure out. 

The Spartans rank 22nd in RPI and have Tom Izzo running the show. Great, but they tout just one win against the RPI Top 25 and are coming off a crushing loss in the Big Ten title game against Wisconsin in which they didn't score a point in overtime.

"I thought we played one of the greatest games we've played through 32, 35, 36 minutes," Izzo said, per The Associated Press (via ESPN.com). "And then we made a couple of mistakes and they made a couple of great shots. That's the way the game goes."

A stunning sudden lack of momentum may hurt the Spartans, not that the Georgia Bulldogs are any easier to figure out. A 37th rank in RPI and no wins against the RPI Top 50 in five attempts stick out on the resume, as does a 7-5 mark over the course of the team's past 12 outings.

If there's a positive for the Bulldogs going into the matchup, it's that Michigan State loves to chew the shot clock before shooting. The Bulldogs rank 26th in adjusted defensive efficiency at KenPom.com, in large part due to senior forward Marcus Thornton's 12.3 points, 7.2 rebounds, 1.0 assists and 1.2 blocks per game. 

The thing is, the Spartans don't waste possessions. Considering Branden Dawson, Denzel Valentine and Travis Trice all average at least 12 points, it's hard to see how Izzo's team loses unless it comes out as flat as it did in the overtime embarrassment.

This one screams low-scoring affair. Michigan State has the star power to bring it home, but Georgia touts a defense capable of keeping it closer than most expect.

Prediction: Michigan State 68, Georgia 66

Stats and info are courtesy of ESPN.com unless otherwise specified. Odds courtesy of Odd Shark on March 18 at 9 a.m. ET.