South Africa's World Cup Hopes Could Hinge on the Toss of a Coin

The World Cup quarter-finals are here and South Africa and Sri Lanka are the first two teams to square off when they take each other on at the Sydney Cricket Ground on Wednesday. The two teams could not be any more different, though. South Africa have never won a knockout match while chasing, whereas Sri Lanka have an impressive record in the tournament, having won the World Cup in 1996 and finished as consecutive runners-up in 2007 and 2011.

South Africa’s rocky relationship with knockout matches have hinged largely on their ability to handle pressure. Signs of their inability to survive when the squeeze is on have already been evident during this tournament. They lost two matches in the pool stages, both while chasing. South Africa’s overall record when chasing has been dubious in the last few years, too.

Since the last World Cup in 2011, South Africa have lost 10 and won three matches when chasing a target of 250 or more. Among those 10 losses, four have been when chasing targets between 260 and 299, and six when chasing 300-plus. West Indies, Zimbabwe, England and Pakistan have a worse win-loss ratio when chasing these targets, while India (16-16) and Australia (7-8) have the best, as per ESPN Cricinfo.

While stats at Sydney do favour the teams batting second these days (eight wins compared to five when chasing in the last five years), South Africa’s quarter-final could very much hinge on a coin toss.

Knowing that South Africa are prone to crumbling under pressure, it’s highly unlikely that Sri Lanka will choose to bowl should they win the toss. Therefore, the toss is arguably more important than any of the other factors that will come into play on Wednesday.

South Africa’s strength has been batting first in this World Cup. The last they time played at Sydney they batted first and scored over 400 runs. With Sri Lanka’s bowling line-up being quite innocuous, batting first is imperative to South Africa’s victory charge.

It is not that they do not possess the batsmen to chase big totals, it’s just they do not seem to have the mental capacity to do so. Even a modest total, 250 is par batting first at the SCG, could prove to be fatal to their campaign.

When chasing a lowly target against Pakistan last week, South Africa combusted, with poor shot selection resulting in a complete failure to put partnerships together. South Africa’s captain AB de Villiers has already taken the stern approach to the albatross that has attached itself to his team’s neck and has expressed confidence in his team’s ability.

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All I can say is we're not going to choke. We're just going to play a good game of cricket tomorrow and come out on top. Simple.

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While De Villiers’ confidence is endearing, and it might seem overly simplistic to suggest that the end result could come down to the toss of a coin, the statistics very much suggest that a lot will hinge on it.

All quotes and information obtained firsthand, unless otherwise stated.