Biggest Surprises from Selection Sunday 2015

Selection Sunday 2015 finally revealed the full field of NCAA tournament contenders, as it was supposed to—but it also served up a number of head-scratching surprises that left fans and experts alike wondering just what the selection committee was thinking.

Just like every year, there were plenty of talking points about seeding and potential matchups, but there were also some truly odd coincidences and selections that will surely be baffling water-cooler topics right up until tipoff.

What’s the Committee’s Deal with Indiana?

Take a long, hard look at the Midwest region. What do you see (well, besides the gigantic shadow of Kentucky stretching from Louisville to Indianapolis, obviously)?

Do you see five teams from the state of Indiana—which is to say, all the tournament representatives from the state of Indiana—conveniently standing between Kentucky and the unstoppable Wildcats’ anointed path to the Final Four? That’s a rhetorical question.

Jeff Borzello, college basketball recruiting insider for ESPN, put it simply (h/t ESPN):

The historic basketball rivalry between Kentucky and Indiana is legendary and fierce, as both states have long taken great pride in their high school and college hoops. Everyone with a background in basketball knows these neighboring states bleed for bragging rights on the hardwood and look forward to every IU-Kentucky game like a major holiday (until recently, that is).

That’s why it seems supremely odd all the eggs of the Hoosier state (Indiana, Purdue, Notre Dame, Butler, Valparaiso) now find themselves in one basket: the very same basket that contains the unanimous tournament favorite and the metaphorical egg-smashing boulder that is Kentucky.

If any of these Indiana teams want to reach the Final Four in Indianapolis, they’ll have to march through the immovable object of the Big Blue Nation. That seems almost cruel, doesn’t it?

However, some would still consider this a kind seeding, as none of the Indiana teams will ever have to leave their home region. Given Indiana’s nerve-racking week, that kind of optimism is understandable:

Others would say that, for the lower seeds (IU, Valpo, Purdue), the Kentucky region is fitting: After all, if they didn’t want to be in the same region with the overall No. 1 seed, they should have played better during the regular season.

Reading into selection committee decisions is always an imperfect science, as we’re not psychic (more on that next), but you still have to marvel at the bizarre predicament of all five Indiana teams somehow winding up in the Midwest region with Kentucky.

Wait, that Team Got in?

Speaking of trying to read the selection committee’s collective mind, many fans and experts are racking their brains trying to come to terms with their decision to include UCLA in this year’s field.

The Bruins (20-13) spent the majority of this season getting beaten up by ranked teams (they trailed Kentucky 41-7 at the half on December 20) and boast only one high-quality win against No. 5 seed Utah that came at the end of January.

Here’s a glimpse from the opening minutes of that UCLA-Kentucky game for some context:

UCLA also have a number of poor losses (Arizona State, Oregon State, Colorado, etc) that beg the question of why the Bruins are allowed to dance while teams like Temple (23-10, crushed No. 2 seed Kansas in December) were not invited.

Borzello put the committee’s decision in perspective while ESPN college basketball analyst Mark Adams alluded to their reasoning for making the call in the first place:

Like Temple, Colorado State will also be feeling left out after going 27-6 on the season with quality wins over San Diego State and Boise State (another bubble team). The committee could argue the Pac-12 is tougher than the Mountain West conference, but many would respond: “not that much better.”

You could argue Indiana, a No. 10 seed, was also on the bubble after it ended the season with a 1-4 record. However, wins over tournament teams SMU, Butler, Ohio State and Maryland professed a greater level of credibility than that of UCLA’s resume.

Similarly, 11th seed Texas (20-13) had a losing record in its conference, but wins over Connecticut, West Virginia and Baylor allowed the committee to overlook the darker side of the Longhorns’ season.

ESPN.com’s national director of recruiting Paul Biancardi believes that’s the case, anyway:

In the end, all three teams got a lifeline of respect from the committee for being members of power conferences. Whether that’s a justified stance will be up for debate for as long as the selection committee continues to exist.

The Overvalued Teams:

When it comes to drawing the ire of fans at the water cooler, bubble teams like Indiana, Texas and UCLA go hand in hand with overrated teams that are perceived to have an easier route to the later rounds of the tournament.

This year’s scapegoats are highlighted by the Big East duo of Georgetown and Xavier. Theirs is certainly a strong conference, but is it strong enough to validate their inflated seeding in the March Madness field?

Georgetown finished third in the conference with a 21-10 record overall. A big win over Villanova and a 2-1 record against Butler are impressive, but earlier wins against Indiana and Florida (teams that faded fast down the stretch) look less impressive now.

Add in three losses to Xavier, and a No. 4 seed seems generous for the Hoyas—as some Twitter commentators were happy to note:

Speaking of Xavier (21-13), the Musketeers were an even 9-9 in the Big East. They finished sixth in that conference yet still garnered a No. 6 seed in the NCAA tournament.

Xavier finished with a solid Big East tournament run, but early season losses against UTEP and Long Beach State will continue to annoy teams like Purdue that had a similar season trend but ended up with a No. 9 seed.

The Undervalued Teams:

While a few Boilermakers may still be content just having made the tournament after a horrific December, it’s hard to imagine there are many happy Maryland fans out there.

Note how ESPN’s Bracket TV downplays Maryland’s chances in the region, via ESPN:

The Terrapins finished second in the Big Ten with a 27-6 overall record and ended the season by winning eight of their last nine games. Despite being ranked No. 8 in the nation going into Selection Sunday, Maryland only received a No. 4 seed (and was placed in Kentucky’s region, no less).

Wins over No. 1 seed Wisconsin, No. 7 seed Michigan State (twice) and No. 3 seed Iowa State will leave the Terrapins wondering what could—or should—have been. All things considered, though, the Terrapins and their fans will surely look to make the best of a daunting situation:

Sharing frustration and the Midwest region with Maryland are the marginally aggrieved Fighting Irish. Notre Dame (29-5) finds itself with the No. 3 seed after finishing third in its conference and beating Duke and UNC on the road to the ACC tournament title.

Over the course of the season, the Irish beat tournament darlings Duke and UNC two times apiece, in addition to NC State, Louisville and Michigan State. Though Duke’s RPI was five and Notre Dame’s was 15, the Fighting Irish fans will be upset their team ended up with a No. 3 seed while the Blue Devils took a No. 1.

It seems like no one is giving the Irish special treatment for their achievements these days:

Arizona can also feel a little perturbed at its relegation to a No. 2 seed while Duke sits atop the South region. The Wildcats’ six RPI, outright conference title and conference tournament title gave them a strong case against the Blue Devils, considering Duke failed to secure either title in the ACC.

However, the committee could only give four No. 1 seeds, and Arizona was the odd man out this year, as Scott Barnes discusses here, via cbssports.com.

For Arizona—and the committee—the strength of the ACC overcame the weaker Pac-12. Wildcats fans will have wanted more, but hey, at least they’re not the second seed in the Midwest.

Odds and Ends: Dayton Lucks Out

Not unlike the aforementioned situation with low-seeded Indiana teams, the Dayton Flyers find themselves in an odd geographic scenario. Dayton will be kicking off the tournament with massive home support in Columbus, Ohio, despite being an 11th-seeded bubble team.

The scenario understandably troubled ESPN basketball insider Jeff Goodman:

The Flyers will undoubtedly feel more at home than Boise State or potential higher-seeded opponents like Providence and Oklahoma in the following rounds.

The Flyers’ home advantage seems unfair to those opponents—and it is—but sometimes that’s just how the tournament seeding shakes out. It could’ve happened to anyone, but this time Dayton drew the lucky combination of having the right seed when the right slot for that seed happened to be open.

But Wait, There’s More!

Was your team shafted by the selection committee but not represented here? Let us hear about it—and why you believe they deserved a different fate—in the comments section.