2009 NFL Preview: AFC Dominance

The Lombardi Trophy currently resides in the AFC, where the Steelers are looking primed for a repeat.

The Patriots get Tom Brady back; in addition, they have made improvements to their defense -- consider them a borderline juggernaut.

San Diego, my pick last year to win the Super Bowl, gets Shawne Merriman back healthy. Add Merriman, with the fact that Philip Rivers is coming off an MVP-caliber season into year three of Norv Turner’s offense, and you have excellence.

Tennessee, the top seed in last year’s playoffs, suffered a big blow in losing Al Haynesworth, but are still a well-coached, resilient team.

And let’s not forget my beloved Ravens, who despite losing some grit on defense still have a lot of top-flight talent, as well as an emerging rookie quarterback in Joe Flacco.

Meanwhile, NFC counterparts, who have produced just one Super Bowl winner (the 2007 Giants) in the past six seasons, have a lot more questions than answers and no clear favorites.

New York's Giants might be everyone’s top team, but we all saw how hindered their offense was without Plaxico Burress and now they don’t have Derrick Ward.

Dallas and Philly have major questions.

Chicago might have gotten Jay Cutler, but he’s never even been to the playoffs with good receivers and now he’s saddled with maybe the worst corps in the league.

Green Bay and New Orleans have serious defensive issues, along with defending Conference Champ Arizona. Carolina and Minnesota have deep teams with quarterbacking problems.

All of this said, I think the Super Bowl winner will definitely be one of the AFC’s elite teams. And who might that just be? You’ll have to read the preview to find out, starting with the NFC…

East

1-Giants

2-Eagles

3-Cowboys

4-Redskins

10 points:

-The Giants need to find a solid replacement at WR. I’m not sold on Hakeem Nicks being the answer. Either way, the division is theirs for the taking.

-In two home playoff games, Eli Manning is 0-2 and the Giants have been outscored 46-11.

-Philly was my original choice as NFC Champions before Jimmy Johnson’s death, the gamut of injuries to their defense and the tread on Brian Westbrook’s tires make me worry.

-Jeremy Maclin should provide a solid target for Donovan McNabb, who’s been stuck with one of the worst receiving corps in the NFL the past two years.

-Michael Vick…why? Just…why?

-Despite getting rid of all the malignant personalities in the locker room, Dallas will miss Terrell Owens more than they think.

-I applaud Wade Phillips for taking over the defense. One of the more sound minds out there. But I’m not sold on him as a head coach.

-Their running game has the potential to be the best in the NFC if Marion Barber is healthy, but can Tony Romo play well enough without his lead weapon? I’m not sold at all on the Roy Williams-Miles Austin combo.

-Jason Campbell is the reincarnation of Kyle Boller. It kills me because I’ve always been a Campbell booster but after three years, I’m hopping off the bandwagon.

-If Mike Shanahan isn’t coaching this team, or Dallas by next year, I’ll be shocked.

North

1-Packers

2-Vikings

3-Bears

4-Lions

10 points:

-I’ve always liked Aaron Rodgers, and he played well last year. If Ryan Grant comes back healthy, you’re looking at the best offense in the NFC.

-I like everything I read about Green Bay’s defensive switch to the 3-4. They need to improve that if they want to challenge.

-It kills me making Minnesota a wild card team with Brett Favre back. I’m certainly not his biggest fan. But remember, he played well last year before he tore that biceps. Now he has it fixed.

-Minnesota has a solid defense and a great running game to support Favre, even better than the Jets team he finished with last year that was 10-6.

-One issue: How does anyone not named “Favre” take Brad Childress seriously anymore? After his constant wavering, this is definitely make-or-break for him. And he’s not that good of a coach.

-Chicago was my original pick to grab the wild card…until I remembered that Jay Cutler has no receivers. And while he is a substantial upgrade over Kyle Orton, he has precisely zero playoff appearances.

-Again with Cutler, he throws the ball up for grabs almost as much as Favre does. He was second in the NFL last year in INTs (behind Favre). He won’t have the luxury of Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal this year.

-Their defense showed some major chinks in the armor last year and age has definitely caught up to them. Rod Marinelli might re-invigorate the front four, but they need a stellar year out of Brian Urlacher to go anywhere.

-I like everything I read about Jim Schwartz as a head coach. I think he’s exactly what the Lions need.

-Calvin Johnson: the most underrated player in the league. In my opinion, he belongs in the best receiver discussion with Randy Moss and Larry Fitzgerald, and maybe even Andre Johnson.

South

1-Saints

2-Panthers

3-Falcons

4-Buccaneers

10 points:

-I pick the Saints with much trepidation as I still am not sold on their defense. Jonathan Vilma needs to continue to play big for them.

-Everyone seems to be okay with Pierre Thomas as their starting running back. I am not. Drew Brees will need to have another MVP-caliber year for them to compete seriously.

-Carolina should be the favorite in the NFC, but I simply cannot look past Jake Delhomme at quarterback. I think they should’ve brought in someone else to compete for the job. It will cost them a playoff spot.

-One good thing they didn’t do was give Delhomme an extension. Oh, wait…they did? Never mind. That was dumb.

-Getting Julius Peppers back was huge, because the D is gonna have to play over their heads again if they want to make the Super Bowl. I don’t see that happening.

-Atlanta was another tough one to pick. I like Matt Ryan and I think he can do even better with Tony Gonzalez as his tight end. But I’m not as sold on Michael Turner repeating what he did last year after so many carries.

-Atlanta’s receiving corps took some major hits in the pre-season, but that’s the least of their concerns because…

-The Falcons defense wasn’t even that good last year and now it’s a year older and minus Keith Brooking.

-I love how the Buccaneers gave all of that money to Luke McCown before they even saw him throw. What a waste.

-Tampa Bay will compete with the Rams and Lions for worst in the NFC.

West

1-49ers

2-Cardinals

3-Seahawks

4-Rams

10 points:

-I just love everything about the 49ers. Love Mike Singletary, love Shaun Hill and Frank Gore, love Patrick Willis. There’s a lot to love.

-Of course, Singletary’s coaching style is bound to wear thin after awhile. And as much as I like Hill, he will probably miss Mike Martz’s tutelage a lot.

-It’s a weak division though, which is why I’m more sold on San Fran being the sleeper than the other four teams.

-I just can’t imagine Kurt Warner being healthy for all 16 games again. And with Matt Leinart having to compete for the backup QB job, well…

-I might be in the minority, but I think Beanie Wells could turn out to be the steal of the draft. I could see him having a monster second half after barely playing in the first.

-But their defense…ugh. They played over their heads last year. Won’t happen again.

-I could see Seattle having a monster rebound year if Matt Hasselbeck weren’t 33 going on 34. Seneca Wallace still as a back up? Mark Sanchez would’ve been perfect for them. Alas.

-And Julius Jones/TJ Duckett running the ball? Combining all of this with the less than stellar coaching of Jim Mora, whom I’ve never been impressed with, and I’m writing Seattle off.

-I have nothing good to say about St. Louis so I won’t say much at all.

-Stephen Jackson can always give them a puncher’s chance. And I’ll always root for Kyle Boller out of misguided loyalty.

Playoffs

Giants and Packers roll through their seasons and grab the top two slots. New Orleans faces little competition for the South and takes the third. San Francisco wins the West on the last day at 9-7.

The Wild Card race will be one of the best in years, and will come down to Week 17 with Philly, Green Bay, Minnesota and Chicago all competing. When the dust settles, it’ll be the Vikings and the Eagles.

The Saints will top the Eagles in a first-round classic. In one last blaze of glory, Favre leads the Vikings to a road win in San Francisco.

Before the second round, everyone is hyping a potential Packers-Vikings NFC Championship at Lambeau. Green Bay does their part by outgunning New Orleans. But the Giants stomp the Vikings mercilessly as Favre throws 4 INTs.

Green Bay gets revenge on the Giants from two years earlier, this time beating them in their own home for the NFC Championship.

And now onto the AFC…

East

1. Patriots

2. Jets

3. Dolphins

4. Bills

10 points:

-With the Derrick Burgess trade and the continued emergence of Jerod Mayo, the Patriots defense will be almost as good as its offense.

-The thing that tempers my expectations for New England is Tom Brady’s knee. Who knows how it will turn out? Carson Palmer was never the same after his injury.

-Just as a matter of fact, I think Wes Welker is the most overrated guy in the league. Line me up next to Randy Moss and I could put up pretty decent numbers with the attention he commands. On any other team, he’s nothing more than a decent slot guy.

-I think the Jets might surprise some people. Rex Ryan can bring the fire. They return the leading rusher in the AFC and strengthen an already solid defense with the acquisitions of Bart Scott and Jim Leonhard, not to mention Ryan’s defensive expertise.

-The key is, of course, Matt Sanchez. I think the seasons Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco had last year were aberrations. Usually, rookie QBs come in and struggle right away. Ryan and Flacco had five years to prepare for the NFL, whereas Sanchez only has three. Still, even with him struggling, he might be a better option than Kellen Clemens.

-The Dolphins just strike me so strongly as a year after team. Can Chad Pennington stay healthy for all 16 games and duplicate his success from last year? If not, it might be Chad Henne time.

-The defense concerns me too. You're asking a lot of guys to repeat their contributions from last year, when they played better than expected. Especially Joey Porter, who tailed off badly at the end of last year and is 32.

-I do believe in Tony Sparano. I think he’s a good coach. But you throw in those things combined with a tougher schedule makes Miami probably a year away from contending again.

-TO in Buffalo? Really? I just don’t think this ends well for Trent Edwards.

-The Bills do have mild sleeper potential if TO can keep his head on straight. The problem is their division/conference is so tough.

North

1-Steelers

2-Ravens

3-Bengals

4-Browns

10 points:

-Ben Roethlisberger moved into Brady/Manning territory with his second Super Bowl ring. Now the question is, can he throw up an elite season to keep Pittsburgh ahead of Baltimore? How much will the rape case distract him?

-Rashard Mendenhall really needs to take over the running back responsibilities soon…as in like yesterday. Willie Parker is better served off the bench and his o-line is gonna get him killed.

-Limas Sweed as the No. 2 receiver? That’s the sound of me laughing.

-Everyone’s predicting a big year for Joe Flacco, and as a Ravens fan I would like to agree. Another year in Cam Cameron’s system should be beneficial. But his receiving corps still stinks, unless Mark Clayton can (finally!) make the leap.

-There will be a slight drop off in the D without Rex Ryan and Bart Scott, but considering it’s the same scheme and (mostly) the same personnel, I don’t think it will be too bad.

-I'm bored writing about how boring Chad Ochocinco is, though I hear he’s re-invented himself somewhat on Hard Knocks.

-I think their defense’s 13th overall ranking is a little convoluted seeing as how they were blown out so much that most teams played conservatively in the second half.

-Really, I don’t know what to make of the Bengals. I’ve had them as a sleeper two years in a row and they let me down. Shame on me. I just don’t see them doing much.

-I think Brady Quinn wins the quarterback battle.

-I really can’t think of anything else interesting to say about the Browns except that they took a Ravens personnel guy in the front office and a Belichick disciple for coach and replaced them with another Ravens personnel guy and Belichick disciple. Interesting.

South

1. Colts

2. Titans

3. Texans

4. Jaguars

10 points:

-Indianapolis started out 3-4 last year. Their star QB was banged-up, they had no running game and their defense had some cracks. They finished the year 12-4. On any other team, the press would be salivating, but for Indy, it’s just another great year. What a run they’ve had.

-I don’t think they’ll lose too much in replacing Tony Dungy with Jim Caldwell. That’s a solid organization. They wouldn’t bring in Caldwell if they didn’t think he could handle it.

-I think way too many people are sleeping on these guys as Super Bowl picks. Donald Brown is gonna have to play a factor at some point to get their running game going.

-Tennessee’s window was perfect last year. The Patriots and Chargers were banged up and they had home-field over Pittsburgh. It was theirs for the taking.

-This year, I think the loss of Albert Haynesworth, combined with another year of age on Kerry Collins makes them nothing more than a Wild Card contender.

-Every ounce of me wanted to put Houston ahead of Tennessee, but the Titans are just too well-coached and have too many savvy veterans to fall too far.

-This has got to be the year for Matt Schaub. He’s got the weapons to make it happen. But don’t worry if he gets hurt, Dan Orlovsky and Rex Grossman are waiting in the wings.

-The key for making a serious move is the Texans' defense. I just don’t see that happening. In other divisions, they’d be a serious contender, but this one is too deep.

-David Garrard is the most underrated QB in the league. He had a decent year last year with no receivers.

-Nevertheless, his team stinks. I don’t think Maurice Jones-Drew can handle being a full-time back and their defense is overrated. Jack del Rio should’ve been fired at the end of last year.

West

1-Chargers

2-Chiefs

3-Broncos

4-Raiders

10 points:

-Really, if the Chargers don’t win this year, I give up. With Shawne Merriman back healthy, as well as a rejuvenated LaDainian Tomlinson, this is their time.

-Philip Rivers, MVP. Done and done. Again, this is their time.

-The only thing that cools me about San Diego is Norv Turner coaching, but let’s look at his playoff record: He was 1-1 with Washington in 1999 and they almost upset Tampa Bay on the road to make the NFC Championship. He upsets the Colts in Indy in 2007, getting a score on the final drive with Billy Volek and Darren Sproles behind the wheel. If Philip Rivers is healthy in the AFC Championship, they maybe beat New England. And last year, he takes them to the second round and his team can’t catch a break on the road against the eventual World Champion Steelers. I think he has it in him to win it all.

-That was a long point to make because I really don’t have much else to say about the AFC West. I think it’s the worst division in football.

-Kansas City certainly could be a sleeper but their defense is weak. Glen Dorsey needs to step it up this year.

-Brodie Croyle might beat out Matt Cassel for the starting job? Like, the Brodie Croyle? The one with the hot wife and no game?

-Denver was looming for me as a mini-sleeper. Kyle Orton didn’t play that badly last year and he had no receivers. But Brandon Marshall has turned into a disaster, so I can’t back them.

-The Broncos also did very little to improve their horrid defense.

-I agree with the press: If Tom Cable really did punch out that coach, he should be suspended. But he won’t because it’s the Raiders.

-JaMarcus Russell isn’t as bad as everyone makes him out to be. He had no receivers last year, and still doesn’t this year (Darius Heyward-Bey over Michael Crabtree will haunt them for years). Hopefully, the strong running game can give him a boost.

Playoffs

The Chargers, Colts, and Patriots romp through their schedules and grab the top three seeds in that order. Pittsburgh battles all year with Baltimore, splitting their two games but winning the division. The Ravens settle for a Wild Card, as do the Titans.

New England crushes Tennessee at home in the first round and Baltimore finally gets their vengeance upon Pittsburgh, beating them on the road in a bloodbath.

San Diego handles the Ravens in the second round and Indianapolis beats New England in a classic in Indy on a last-second Adam Vinatieri field goal.

San Diego beats Indy for the third year in a row to (finally) advance to the Super Bowl.

Super Bowl XLIV

San Diego vs. Green Bay: The Packers take an early lead and it’s close by halftime, but it’s all Chargers in the second half. San Diego-31, Green Bay-20. MVP: Philip Rivers.