You Harang?: It May Be Time to Stop Answering Fantasy Call for Aaron Harang

Aaron Harang has long been considered a solid fantasy option, but as we near two full seasons of disastrous results, it certainly may be time to reevaluate that perception. 

Could it just be an extremely long run of bad luck? Let’s delve into the numbers and take a look:

- 6 Wins
- 155.1 Innings
- 4.35 ERA
- 1.42 WHIP
- 138 Strikeouts (8.00 K/9)
- 41 Walks (2.38 BB/9)
- .342 BABIP

The BABIP screams bad luck and is significantly higher then his career mark of .316; however, it has not been a consistent struggle for him. Instead, it appears he has been incredibly streaky:

* April: .309

* May: .387

* June: .327

* July: .364

* August: .301

While June was subpar, it is May and July that stick out like a sore thumb. In those months, he posted ERAs of 5.15 and 6.00 respectively. How did he fare in the other three months? ERAs of 3.09 (April), 3.38 (June), and 3.38 (August).

His other peripheral numbers are very consistent with what he has done in the past. His 8.00 K/9 correlates favorably with his career mark of 7.56. It's also right in line with the 8.30 and 8.47 marks he posted in his solid 2006 (16-11, 3.76 ERA, 216 K) and 2007 (16-6, 3.73 ERA, 218 K) campaigns.

His career BB/9 is at 2.48, only twice having a mark higher than the 2.44 he posted in 2008 (in his 2002 rookie season and in 2004, when he was at 2.96). Needless to say, the control is an extremely realistic number and should help him post a WHIP that fantasy owners want to own. Unfortunately, the poor luck has prevented that from happening.

His HR/FB rate is up marginally, currently at 12.4 percent (in '06 and '07 he had marks of 10.5 percent and 10.2 percent). Obviously, the ballpark could be playing a role, but he was pitching in Great American Ballpark in both 2006 and 2007 as well. I’m not buying that as an excuse.

The FB% is consistent, currently at 40.8 percent compared to a career mark of 40.6 percent. His fastball is also consistent, currently averaging at 90.4 mph against his career mark of 90.2 mph. He’s also throwing the pitch 68.4 percent of the time, matching his career mark.

Luck certainly plays a huge part in his apparent demise.

Keep that in mind before you simply write him off as a useless option for the remainder of 2009 and beyond. Granted, the Reds are not a good team, and that certainly plays a role in his struggles.

Obviously, at this point, it’s impossible to trust him full-time, but when the matchup is right and things appear to be going well for him, he’s worth throwing out there in all formats. 

As for 2010, I’ll go on record right now as saying that he has the potential to be a great buy low candidate, but I’m sure we’ll get into significantly more detail on that in the coming months.

What do you think of Harang? Could he have value in 2009? What do you expect from him in 2010?

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