Louisville Cardinals' Blueprint to Win the 2015 NCAA Tournament

Louisville was a one-and-done participant in the ACC tournament this past week. If the Cardinals hope to avoid a similar fate in the NCAA tourney, they must do certain things.

The Cardinals earned a No. 4 seed and will face UC Irvine, a game they hope will be the start of another deep run similar to the one in 2013 when they won the NCAA title. Last year Louisville was eliminated in the Sweet 16, reaching the second weekend of the tournament for the eighth straight season.

While who Louisville faces along the way will have a major impact—"it all depends on the matchups," coach Rick Pitino has said—there's a lot more to it than that. The Cardinals need to do certain things and avoid doing others in order to win their second national championship in the past three seasons.

Follow along as we lay out Louisville's blueprint to a title.

Keep Montrezl Harrell Interested

With the ball in his hands, Montrezl Harrell is one of the most imposing players in the country. The 6'8" junior forward is a nearly unstoppable force when he gets near the basket, something he shows each time he adds to his school record for career dunks.

Yes, Louisville tracks this stat.

Harrell is averaging 15.7 points and 9.5 rebounds while shooting 57.1 percent from the field, and he's on a run of three straight double-doubles. He's playing his best ball of the year, which is what you want from your stars when the calendar turns to March.

But the key is making sure it stays this way. Either because of ball movement or a lack of desire, at times Harrell finds himself completely absent in the offense, and when he doesn't show that fire in the post, Louisville loses a major element of its attack.

Limit Terry Rozier to Only Good Shots

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Leading scorer Terry Rozier has taken a major leap forward this season, stepping into the role that Russ Smith handled so well for so long. Though just a sophomore, the 6'1" guard is averaging 17.1 points in 34.3 minutes after scoring 7.0 points per game a year ago.

Rozier has shown no fear this season, which is both good and bad. It's great because his confidence never wavers, even when the shots aren't falling, but on the flip side that means Rozier has yet to show the ability to become more selective with those attempts.

Shooting just 41.1 percent overall and 31 percent from three-point range, Rozier has attempted at least 14 shots in six of Louisville's past seven games. He's failed to top 40 percent in five of those contests, with abysmal results like 4-of-15 in a loss to Notre Dame and 6-of-20 in falling to North Carolina in the ACC tournament quarterfinals.

In that stretch, too, was an efficient 4-of-8 performance in Louisville's upset of Virginia to end the regular season.

Though he's the guy who sets the offensive tone, Rozier doesn't need to always shoot the ball. Just when it's the right option.

Find a Hero

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Louisville has had five different players lead the team in scoring in a game this season, but Montrezl Harrell and Terry Rozier have handled the duty in 24 of 32 contests. When the Cardinals are able to get a big contribution from someone else, it's an extra benefit, but that doesn't have to be represented by a bunch of points.

Instead, Louisville just needs someone to step up and make a big play or two at a key moment. It doesn't matter who it is; it just has to happen.

The Cardinals' upset of Virginia last week was determined by such an unsung hero, when sophomore forward Mangok Mathiang made his only shot of the game on a 14-footer with less than three seconds left. A week earlier, sophomore guard Anton Gill chipped in 14 big points in 12 minutes after scoring 10 points in the previous 13 games.

The postseason is about having the stars come through, but it also requires some unexpected contributions from others. Louisville needs someone else to step up and make a play. 

Stay Simple on Defense

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Before senior guard Chris Jones was dismissed last month, Louisville coach Rick Pitino had his time switching up defensive assignments and schemes almost on a possession-by-possession basis. That had to get scrapped when the coach inserted freshman Quentin Snider into the starting lineup, and that simplified approach has proved to work for the current starters.

That is, assuming Louisville continues to take care of two statistics that Pitino considers most important: deflections and turnovers.

Pitino wants the Cardinals to deflect the ball at least 35 times per game, a figure that will lead to turnovers that can reap numerous benefits. When they do this, wins usually happen, but when Louisville's players aren't sticking their hands out to deflect passes and disrupt ball movement, such as against North Carolina on Thursday, it usually leads to a poor result.

"We just have to get back to what we do best," Montrezl Harrell told Jeff Greer of The (Louisville) Courier-Journal.

Finish Strong

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Louisville had a five-point halftime lead on Thursday, only to be outscored by 15 in the second half against North Carolina. It was the fourth time this season the Cardinals have led or been tied at the half and then fallen apart during the final 20 minutes—and the second time against UNC.

These breakdowns come as a result of the factors and scenarios mentioned in the previous slides, and when they all happen at once, it's disastrous. Louisville has shown the tendency to almost give up when situations get stressful, yet in other games the team plays with amazing composure in the final moments.

Pitino has one of his youngest teams ever, with only two upperclassmen. But at this point in the season, the freshmen and sophomores have played enough games that a lack of experience shouldn't matter.

Tap into the Past

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Wayne Blackshear averaged only 7.6 points per game as a sophomore in 2012-13, but that didn't stop him from being a key piece of Louisville's national championship team that season. That includes when he hit a pair of huge three-pointers in the title game against Michigan.

Montrezl Harrell only played 12 minutes in that final, scoring a lone basket on a fast-break dunk late in the first half.

They're all that's left from the team that cut down the nets in the Georgia Dome, yet they're more than enough to serve as mentors and motivators for the rest of the roster. With players on the team who have been there before and gotten the job done, the Cardinals have an edge over every other team in the field.

Follow Brian J. Pedersen on Twitter at @realBJP.