2015 NFL Mock Draft: 1st-Round Predictions and Prospects to Watch

Free agency is underway, which means that NFL teams' needs in the draft will change between now and April 30 as roster holes are filled via the open market. At this very moment, teams are swapping and signing like maniacs. In the process of creating this mock draft, several predictions have already been changed in the wake of reported transactions.   

But that won't stop us from mocking. After all, the first round is a mere 50 days away. And, generally, we have a sense of teams' areas of need. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers need a quarterback. The St. Louis Rams need an offensive lineman. The Packers need a defensive lineman. And so on.

Often, the question on draft day becomes: How far is a team willing to stray from its intended game plan to snag a talented player, regardless of what position he plays? And the reverse: How much is a team willing to sacrifice talent-wise in order to fill a major need?

Here's an attempt at an up-to-date first-round mock draft, followed by an analysis of a few key players and storylines to keep an eye on.

Pick	Team	Player
1	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Jameis Winston, QB, Florida State
2	Tennessee Titans	Leonard Williams, DE, USC
3	Jacksonville Jaguars	Dante Fowler Jr., DE, Florida
4	Oakland Raiders	Kevin White, WR, West Virginia
5	Washington	Randy Gregory, DE, Nebraska
6	New York Jets	Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon
7	Chicago Bears	Vic Beasley, OLB, Clemson
8	Atlanta Falcons	Shane Ray, DE, Missouri
9	New York Giants	Brandon Scherff, OT, Iowa
10	Philadelphia Eagles (acquired from Rams)	Amari Cooper, WR, Alabama
11	Minnesota Vikings	Trae Waynes, CB, Michigan State
12	Cleveland Browns	Danny Shelton, DT, Washington
13	New Orleans Saints	DeVante Parker, WR, Louisville
14	Miami Dolphins	Marcus Peters, CB, Washington
15	San Francisco 49ers	Arik Armstead, DE, Oregon
16	Houston Texans	Andrus Peat, OT, Stanford
17	San Diego Chargers	Malcom Brown, DT, Texas
18	Kansas City Chiefs	Dorial Green-Beckham, WR, Missouri
19	Cleveland Browns (acquired from Bills)	Ereck Flowers, OT, Miami
20	St. Louis Rams (acquired from Eagles)	Devin Smith, WR, Ohio State
21	Cincinnati Bengals	Bud Dupree, OLB, Kentucky
22	Pittsburgh Steelers	Landon Collins, S, Alabama
23	Detroit Lions	Jalen Collins, S, Alabama
24	Arizona Cardinals	Eli Harold, OLB, Virginia
25	Carolina Panthers	La'El Collins, G, LSU
26	Baltimore Ravens	Melvin Gordon, RB, Wisconsin
27	Dallas Cowboys	Kevin Johnson, CB, Wake Forest
28	Denver Broncos	D.J. Humphries, OT, Florida
29	Indianapolis Colts	Jaelen Strong, WR, Arizona State
30	Green Bay Packers	Jordan Phillips, DT, Oklahoma
31	Seattle Seahawks	Devin Funchess, WR, Michigan
32	New England Patriots	Eddie Goldman, DT, Florida State

The second QB

There are many teams out there dreaming of a franchise quarterback, yet there are only two QBs—Florida State's Jameis Winston and Oregon's Marcus Mariota—who appear worthy of first-rounder status.

The Bucs, in all likelihood, will use their No. 1 overall pick to take one of the two, and chances are they'll choose Winston. If they do, it will be fascinating to see where Mariota lands.  

In this mock draft, we've simply used the assigned draft order without accounting for any potential trading of picks. That allows Mariota to fall to the Jets at No. 6.

We did, however, account for a recent report from NFL Network that, as part of a reported trade (per Adam Schefter of ESPN.com) in which the Eagles and Rams would exchange quarterbacks Nick Foles and Sam Bradford, they would also swap first-round picks. The Eagles, it stands to reason, may be positioning themselves to trade up once more in an attempt to land Mariota. 

"

So the Eagles and Rams are swapping first round picks, which only moves Birds closer to Mariota.

— Les Bowen (@LesBowen) March 10, 2015"

Ross Franklin/Associated Press

To guarantee they'd get him, though, the Eagles may need to deal with the Titans, who currently hold the No. 2 pick. Jake Locker, one of the team's three QBs last season, announced his retirement on Tuesday, and Tennessee could still be searching for a long-term answer.

Defensive end Leonard Williams is widely considered the best talent in the entire draft. He may be too good for the Titans to pass up. But if the Eagles really are making a play at Mariota, would they be willing to chance it?

The Jaguars, at No. 3, already have a QB in Blake Bortles, as do the No. 4 Raiders in Derek Carr. No. 5 Washington has bigger needs at other positions, even though the quarterback situation is hardly settled. Any one of those teams could conceivably accept a trade with a squad that wants Mariota. The Eagles, whose head coach Chip Kelly spent 2012 at Oregon with Mariota under center, are certainly first to jump to mind.

"

For those not getting the move, You use Bradford and the 10 pick to move to get Mariota. You aren't keeping Bradford. #Eagles #EaglesNation

— Philly Sports (@AMAnonFunny) March 10, 2015"

Of course, if they want to be 100 percent sure they get their man, they could even try to swing a deal with Tampa. So many possibilities.

A first-round running back, but only one

There's been lots of talk about 2015 representing the first strong running back draft class in several years: There hasn't been an RB selected in the first round since 2012. Expect that to change this year—this mock draft has Melvin Gordon of Wisconsin going to the Ravens at No. 26—but also expect teams to stay on the cautious side when it comes to taking ball-carriers.

Georgia's Todd Gurley is the other running back who could conceivably come off the board in the late first round. But he tore his ACL in November, and teams will want to look at him closely before the draft to ensure he's fully healthy. Gurley did not participate in the combine and reportedly refused to have his knee examined there. 

Based on pure talent, Gurley is the best running back in this draft, as B/R's Michael Felder and Matt Bowen argue here:

But even if you do consider Gurley the better option than Gordon, it's still very possible that late first-round teams will choose to address their other needs instead. There are lots of strong running backs out there—T.J Yeldon, Ameer Abdullah, Duke Johnson and Jay Ajayi, to name a few—who can still be had in the middle rounds.

The Cowboys, for example, might lose DeMarco Murray in free agency, but they need to bolster their defense first and foremost—hence the prediction of cornerback Kevin Johnson at No. 27.

The Patriots, with the last pick of the first round, could also target a running back, but they've only selected one running back in Round 1 since 1999: Laurence Maroney in 2006. New England declined its option on Vince Wilfork, so drafting a defensive tackle like Eddie Goldman would make sense. 

More running backs will start falling off the board in Round 2.

Seven wide receivers

Julio Cortez/Associated Press

Seven receivers in the first round, as predicted above, would match the most in the first round of an NFL draft since 2004. On the one hand, this could mean we're giving the 2015 WR crew too much credit (for what it's worth, ESPN experts Mel Kiper and Todd McShay have five and four receivers going in the first round, respectively). But the mere fact that there are so many pass-catchers in the Day 1 discussion means there's a wealth of talent at the position.

That starts with Kevin White of West Virginia and Amari Cooper of Alabama. White may be just the threat Derek Carr needs in Oakland. As Kiper explains:

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White is a threat all over the field, will make the contested catch, and has home run speed with the ball in his hands. He's the type of player who doesn't just make plays in the deep passing game, but can make traffic catches underneath and will also turn some short throws into big yards. The Raiders feel they have their franchise QB, so it's important to start surrounding him with talent and, in this case, a playmaker.

"

If White goes at No. 4, Cooper shouldn't be far behind him. He ran the 40 in 4.42 seconds at the combine, fresh off a junior season in which he earned the Biletnikoff Award as the nation's most outstanding receiver and was nominated for the Heisman Trophy. But I'll shut up and let you watch some highlights:

Beyond White and Cooper, another guy to watch closely is Missouri's Dorial Green-Beckham. The Chiefs taking him at No. 18 would represent something of a gamble, but he's plenty talented, as McShay points out: 

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He has a unique skill set at 6-5, 237 pounds with 4.49 speed and flashed some impressive play as a true sophomore for Missouri in 2013. However, he's very raw on tape and has had some significant off-field incidents that resulted in his dismissal from the Missouri football program, so this would be a high-risk/high-reward pick.

"

While there may not be seven receivers taken on April 30, there are more than enough to choose from. Jaelen Strong is a deep threat. Devin Funchess has great size. DeVante Parker catches everything.

Potential game-changers abound.