Lane Kiffin vs. Gators: We Have All of Week Three's Matchups and Projections

WhatIfSports.com will preview a week of the college football season each day for 15 days, including projected scores from 10,000 simulations for all FBS games and updated standings as of that week.

Once we have reached the end of the season, we will present our projected bowl matchups with results.

Rosters and depth charts are up to date and as accurate as possible as of Aug. 1, 2009. A schedule of our 2009 College Football Preview, including links to other previews that have already been posted is located here.

Also, see below for details on how you can run your own college football program with Gridiron Dynasty.

For more information on how we generate the results and the definitions of Absolute and Expected Records, click here.

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Each regular season FBS game is simulated 10,000 times. The Absolute Record is simply the total number of games in which a team is favored.

The Expected Record, the more accurate approach, is the sum of the team's win probabilities from each game. The Expected Record accounts for the fact that some wins are less certain than others (a 50.1 perent win is different than a 99 percent win).

Since the favored team does not win every game (otherwise, why would we watch?), the likelihood of an upset is important to take into account.

We may ultimately say that six teams are favored to win all of their games, but we don't expect any to do so.

Also, since we are rounding, it is possible for a team to win a game more often, yet score the same or fewer points than the opponent on average. In those cases, for Absolute Records, we always take higher winning percentage.

We are not predicting a tie or a win by an underdog. This is another reason why the expected records are more accurate, as the teams are so evenly matched, the game could easily go either way.

The inputs to the simulations are based on a rigorous analysis of each team that considers strength-of-schedule-adjusted team and player ratings from 2008. Once this step is complete, we make our modifications for 2009 based on returning starters (who, where, and how many), expected progression of returning players in new roles, depth at each position, and incoming recruits and transfers.

Games for each week are ordered by the conference of the home team and then winning percentage of the home team, with the score reading the visitors first followed by the home team. If a team is listed as having a 95 percent chance of winning, that means that it won at 95 percent or more of the 10,000 simulations.

Every underdog has a chance to win. Along those lines, this may be relatively obvious for some examples (i.e. James Madison vs. Maryland), but non-FBS rosters and ratings are not maintained individually due to lack of data.

In other words, right or wrong, all non-FBS teams are treated equally.

Today we preview Week Three (9/19/09).

Game of the Week: No. 20 Utah 20 (2-1) @ No. 22 Oregon 23 (2-1)
This game is at Autzen Stadium in Eugene, Oregon, which should provide the difference in a game that is otherwise a toss-up.

Oregon's non-conference schedule is one of the toughest in the nation, playing at Boise State and hosting Purdue and Utah. While favored in all three, there is a good chance they lose at least one of those games.

If they don't, watch out for the Ducks, who get USC, Cal, and Oregon State at home this year.

This Week Three matchup may actually mean more to Utah.

With heightened expectations despite being without veteran starting quarterback Brian Johnson, the Utes are looking to equal the success of last season's undefeated run through the Sugar Bowl.

A win at Oregon would likely set up a clash of undefeated teams at TCU in November. A loss and Utah becomes irrelevant in the BCS landscape. Oregon wins at home just 54.8 percent of the time and by an average score of 23-20.

Matchup	Home Win%	Avg Score
Elon @ Wake Forest	95.0	7-31
Gardner-Webb @ North Carolina State	95.0	8-34
Boston College @ Clemson	89.4	8-24
Middle Tennessee @ Maryland	85.7	11-26
Nebraska @ Virginia Tech	78.1	16-29
East Carolina @ North Carolina	62.1	10-16
Georgia Tech @ Miami (FL)	29.6	21-16
Furman @ Missouri	95.0	7-44
Rice @ Oklahoma State	95.0	17-54
Texas Tech @ Texas	95.0	13-46
Tulsa @ Oklahoma	95.0	15-49
Duke @ Kansas	93.7	13-37
Connecticut @ Baylor	85.0	11-28
Wyoming @ Colorado	65.4	12-19
Utah State @ Texas A&M	47.2	20-22
Charleston Southern @ South Florida	95.0	7-40
Florida International @ Rutgers	93.7	10-30
Navy @ Pittsburgh	74.1	15-26
Northwestern @ Syracuse	20.9	18-10
Temple @ Penn State	95.0	7-39
Wofford @ Wisconsin	95.0	9-42
Eastern Michigan @ Michigan	93.0	6-27
Arizona @ Iowa	74.1	14-25
Northern Illinois @ Purdue	58.1	12-16
California @ Minnesota	7.6	27-11
Virginia @ Southern Miss	93.7	8-31
Tennessee-Martin @ Memphis	86.0	10-26
Buffalo @ UCF	49.8	13-14
Bowling Green @ Marshall	45.5	18-19
Michigan State @ Notre Dame	70.8	10-19
Central Arkansas @ Western Kentucky	43.2	12-13
Ball State @ Army	25.2	20-14
Alcorn State @ Central Michigan	95.0	8-32
Miami (OH) @ Western Michigan	95.0	9-41
Cal Poly @ Ohio	92.4	7-26
Indiana @ Akron	61.5	18-23
Iowa State @ Kent State	59.5	23-27
Ohio State @ Toledo	5.0	38-6
Texas State @ TCU	95.0	5-44
Hawaii @ UNLV	72.4	19-29
Florida State @ Brigham Young	44.2	27-26
Nevada @ Colorado State	14.0	35-22
Air Force @ New Mexico	7.3	31-14
Louisiana-Monroe @ Arizona State	95.0	7-31
San Jose State @ Stanford	87.7	10-28
Kansas State @ UCLA	72.8	11-19
Cincinnati @ Oregon State	65.4	22-30
Utah @ Oregon	54.8	20-23
Southern Methodist @ Washington State	29.9	19-14
USC @ Washington	5.0	57-9
Louisiana-Lafayette @ LSU	95.0	6-50
North Texas @ Alabama	95.0	4-53
Southeastern Louisiana @ Mississippi	95.0	6-55
Tennessee @ Florida	95.0	7-49
Mississippi State @ Vanderbilt	79.7	7-20
Florida Atlantic @ South Carolina	69.4	14-21
Louisville @ Kentucky	29.6	20-13
Georgia @ Arkansas	17.3	31-21
West Virginia @ Auburn	5.0	37-7
UAB @ Troy	69.8	19-30
Nicholls State @ Louisiana Tech	95.0	6-34
San Diego State @ Idaho	19.6	24-14
UTEP @ New Mexico State	18.6	28-17
Boise State @ Fresno State	9.3	30-14

Week Three Standings

Conference	Team	Abs Record	Exp Record
Atlantic Coast	North Carolina State	3 - 0	3 - 0
Atlantic Coast	Florida State	3 - 0	2 - 1
Atlantic Coast	Georgia Tech	3 - 0	2 - 1
Atlantic Coast	North Carolina	3 - 0	2 - 1
Atlantic Coast	Boston College	2 - 1	2 - 1
Atlantic Coast	Clemson	2 - 1	2 - 1
Atlantic Coast	Duke	2 - 1	2 - 1
Atlantic Coast	Maryland	2 - 1	2 - 1
Atlantic Coast	Virginia Tech	2 - 1	2 - 1
Atlantic Coast	Wake Forest	1 - 2	2 - 1
Atlantic Coast	Virginia	1 - 2	1 - 2
Atlantic Coast	Miami (FL)	0 - 2	1 - 1
Big 12	Kansas	3 - 0	3 - 0
Big 12	Oklahoma State	3 - 0	3 - 0
Big 12	Oklahoma	3 - 0	3 - 0
Big 12	Texas	3 - 0	3 - 0
Big 12	Baylor	2 - 0	2 - 0
Big 12	Colorado	2 - 1	2 - 1
Big 12	Missouri	2 - 1	2 - 1
Big 12	Nebraska	2 - 1	2 - 1
Big 12	Texas Tech	2 - 1	2 - 1
Big 12	Kansas State	1 - 2	2 - 1
Big 12	Iowa State	1 - 2	1 - 2
Big 12	Texas A&M	0 - 2	1 - 1
Big East	Pittsburgh	3 - 0	3 - 0
Big East	Rutgers	3 - 0	3 - 0
Big East	South Florida	3 - 0	3 - 0
Big East	West Virginia	3 - 0	3 - 0
Big East	Louisville	2 - 0	2 - 0
Big East	Cincinnati	1 - 2	2 - 1
Big East	Connecticut	1 - 2	1 - 2
Big East	Syracuse	0 - 3	0 - 3
Big Ten	Iowa	3 - 0	3 - 0
Big Ten	Northwestern	3 - 0	3 - 0
Big Ten	Penn State	3 - 0	3 - 0
Big Ten	Wisconsin	3 - 0	3 - 0
Big Ten	Illinois	2 - 0	2 - 0
Big Ten	Michigan State	2 - 1	2 - 1
Big Ten	Ohio State	2 - 1	2 - 1
Big Ten	Purdue	2 - 1	1 - 2
Big Ten	Indiana	1 - 2	1 - 2
Big Ten	Michigan	1 - 2	1 - 2
Big Ten	Minnesota	1 - 2	1 - 2
Conference USA	Southern Miss	3 - 0	3 - 0
Conference USA	Southern Methodist	2 - 1	2 - 1
Conference USA	Tulsa	2 - 1	2 - 1
Conference USA	UAB	1 - 2	2 - 1
Conference USA	UTEP	2 - 1	2 - 1
Conference USA	Houston	1 - 1	1 - 1
Conference USA	East Carolina	1 - 2	1 - 2
Conference USA	Marshall	1 - 2	1 - 2
Conference USA	Memphis	1 - 2	1 - 2
Conference USA	Rice	1 - 2	1 - 2
Conference USA	UCF	1 - 2	1 - 2
Conference USA	Tulane	0 - 2	0 - 2
Independents (FBS)	Notre Dame	3 - 0	2 - 1
Independents (FBS)	Army	1 - 2	1 - 2
Independents (FBS)	Navy	1 - 2	1 - 2
Independents (FBS)	Western Kentucky	0 - 3	1 - 2
Mid-American	Ball State	3 - 0	3 - 0
Mid-American	Akron	2 - 1	2 - 1
Mid-American	Kent State	2 - 1	2 - 1
Mid-American	Ohio	2 - 1	2 - 1
Mid-American	Western Michigan	3 - 0	2 - 1
Mid-American	Temple	1 - 1	1 - 1
Mid-American	Bowling Green	1 - 2	1 - 2
Mid-American	Buffalo	1 - 2	1 - 2
Mid-American	Central Michigan	1 - 2	1 - 2
Mid-American	Northern Illinois	1 - 2	1 - 2
Mid-American	Eastern Michigan	0 - 3	1 - 2
Mid-American	Toledo	0 - 3	1 - 2
Mid-American	Miami (OH)	0 - 3	0 - 3
Mountain West	TCU	2 - 0	2 - 0
Mountain West	Air Force	3 - 0	2 - 1
Mountain West	Colorado State	2 - 1	2 - 1
Mountain West	San Diego State	2 - 1	2 - 1
Mountain West	UNLV	2 - 1	2 - 1
Mountain West	Utah	2 - 1	2 - 1
Mountain West	Brigham Young	1 - 2	1 - 2
Mountain West	New Mexico	1 - 2	1 - 2
Mountain West	Wyoming	1 - 2	1 - 2
Pacific-10	California	3 - 0	3 - 0
Pacific-10	Oregon State	3 - 0	3 - 0
Pacific-10	USC	3 - 0	3 - 0
Pacific-10	Arizona State	2 - 0	2 - 0
Pacific-10	Oregon	3 - 0	2 - 1
Pacific-10	Stanford	3 - 0	2 - 1
Pacific-10	Arizona	2 - 1	2 - 1
Pacific-10	UCLA	2 - 1	2 - 1
Pacific-10	Washington	1 - 2	1 - 2
Pacific-10	Washington State	0 - 3	1 - 2
Southeastern	Alabama	3 - 0	3 - 0
Southeastern	Florida	3 - 0	3 - 0
Southeastern	LSU	3 - 0	3 - 0
Southeastern	Mississippi	2 - 0	2 - 0
Southeastern	Georgia	2 - 1	2 - 1
Southeastern	Tennessee	2 - 1	2 - 1
Southeastern	Vanderbilt	2 - 1	2 - 1
Southeastern	Mississippi State	1 - 2	2 - 1
Southeastern	Arkansas	1 - 1	1 - 1
Southeastern	Kentucky	1 - 1	1 - 1
Southeastern	Auburn	1 - 2	1 - 2
Southeastern	South Carolina	1 - 2	1 - 2
Sun Belt	Louisiana-Lafayette	2 - 1	2 - 1
Sun Belt	Arkansas State	1 - 1	1 - 1
Sun Belt	Louisiana-Monroe	1 - 2	1 - 2
Sun Belt	Middle Tennessee	1 - 2	1 - 2
Sun Belt	Troy	2 - 1	1 - 2
Sun Belt	Florida Atlantic	0 - 2	0 - 2
Sun Belt	Florida International	0 - 2	0 - 2
Sun Belt	North Texas	0 - 3	0 - 3
Western Athletic	Boise State	2 - 1	2 - 1
Western Athletic	Hawaii	2 - 1	2 - 1
Western Athletic	Louisiana Tech	2 - 1	2 - 1
Western Athletic	New Mexico State	2 - 1	2 - 1
Western Athletic	Nevada	1 - 1	1 - 1
Western Athletic	Utah State	1 - 1	1 - 1
Western Athletic	Fresno State	1 - 2	1 - 2
Western Athletic	Idaho	0 - 3	1 - 2
Western Athletic	San Jose State	0 - 3	0 - 3

A schedule of our 2009 College Football Preview, including links to other previews that have already been posted, is located here.

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Paul Bessire is the Product Manager of Content and Quantitative Analysis for WhatIfSports.com, a division of FOX Sports Interactive specializing in NCAA Matchup analysis and college football sim games. With any comments, questions or topic suggestions, Paul can be reached at [e-mail]. Thanks!