Free MLB Pick: Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: August 18th 2009

Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Free Pick: Take Rays -1.5 @ -126 2 Dime Free Play (1-5 scale)
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Off another POD winner and a push in the NFL moving us to 3-0-1 in NFL POD’s this pre-season and 3-1 in our last 4 MLB POD’s looking like we are coming out of our mini slump.

Here today we go with the Rays in what promises to be a complete pitching mismatch with Jason Berken vs. David Price. Neither one of these pitchers will go deep in the game, but when they leave the game they will be leaving under completely different circumstances.

Berken will face the Rays for the first time and that’s too bad as he has a 8.76 ERA in his last three starts and a 8.48 ERA on the road this year. Orioles are 2-12 in Berken’s last 14 overall starts and 1-10 when he is an underdog. The last time he completed 7 innings was May 31st. Which almost guarantees the Rays will see the O’s bullpen for 2+ innings that has gone down hill since losing their closer to the Dodgers. They have a 6.10 ERA last 10, 7.40 Last 5, and the bullpen available for Tuesday has a 8.15 ERA in their last 3 games. Berken has not been impressive with a 41:29 K:BB ratio which really works to the Rays strengths and weaknesses as they are #3 in taking walks which should push Berken out of this game even earlier and they are #4 in K’s which is good since Berken is not a strikeout guy.

David Price going for the Rays has been great at home with a 2.72 ERA and a fabulous 38:18 K:BB ratio. He will go up against the O’s who are #18 in HR and #24 in BB which does not pan out well against Price. Orioles have just been awful against LHP on the road this year with a .222 average and are scoring only 2.80 runs per 9 innings. In their last five they are batting .125 and scoring 1.17 runs per 9.

Why it’s not a premium play? Plain and simple the Rays have not seen Berken before. What does that mean? It means that he may be able to work quickly through the lineup the first time. When playing run lines I like to know that a team can really beat up on a hitter the first time around. Good luck!