Green Bay Packers Final Free-Agency Outlook and Predictions
With the 2015 league year set to begin on March 10 at 4 p.m. ET, free agency is nearly upon us.
Prior to that date, the Green Bay Packers will attempt to re-sign key players currently under contract who will hit the open market. Sixteen players in total will become free agents.
With plenty of cap space, this free-agency period could bring surprises both in terms of which players Thompson is able to retain as well as which, if any, outside free agents he chooses to bring into Green Bay.
Last season's free-agency period brought the exciting arrival of Julius Peppers and Letroy Guion and a last-minute, hefty new contract for cornerback Sam Shields.
The NFLPA confirmed Monday that the 2015 salary cap will be $143.28 million, which gives the Packers about $32.7 million in cap space, according to Tom Silverstein of Milwaukee's Journal Sentinel.
What follows are my five predictions as to what we might see play out for the Packers over the next few weeks as free-agency action begins to ramp up.
Prediction: Bryan Bulaga Will Re-Sign, Become NFL's Highest-Paid Right Tackle
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Re-signing right tackle Bryan Bulaga has been one of Ted Thompson's greatest priorities this offseason, as CBS Sports NFL Insider Jason La Canfora reported on February 25.
Bulaga looks to be the best potentially available free agent on the market this offseason, which means Green Bay must prevent him from signing with another team.
A benefit for the Packers in negotations with Bulaga's agent will be the fact that Bulaga has settled in at the right tackle position as David Bakhtiari has excelled on the left side. That a preseason injury derailed Green Bay's plans to have Bulaga start the 2013-14 season at left tackle means he will be less expensive to re-sign now than he would have been.
Still, expect Bulaga to become the pre-eminent player at his position. Pete Dougherty of the Green Bay Press-Gazette thinks Bulaga could become "one of and maybe the highest-paid right tackle in the league," with a deal averaging about $7 million a year, on par with the league's current highest-paid right tackle, the Colts' Gosder Cherilus.
Bulaga is only 25, and he is an essential fixture on Green Bay's offensive line. He ranked fourth overall among right tackles in 2014, per Pro Football Focus, but second in pass-blocking. His experience and chemistry with Aaron Rodgers have been key in pass protection, which improved greatly in 2014, according to Pro Football Focus. With Bulaga's return, Green Bay's pass-blocking efficiency grade rose from 82.5 to 85.1 (second-best in the league) in 2014.
Prediction: B.J. Raji Will Sign Another 1-Year Deal Worth Less Than $4M
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Bill Huber of Packer Report reported on February 27 that the Packers plan to re-sign free agent B.J. Raji this offseason...but don't expect him to earn the one-year, $4 million deal he did last season.
After tearing his bicep last offseason and undergoing a six- to nine-month rehab process, it's unlikely Raji would receive significant interest on the free-agent market this offseason. Knowing this, the Packers can offer him another one-year prove-it deal worth less than last year's—perhaps $2 million.
Though Raji's play declined when Dom Capers moved him from nose tackle to defensive end three seasons ago, he was excelling when returned to his best position, nose tackle, in training camp prior to his injury.
"B.J. Raji, he was in the best shape and having the best camp of his career," head coach Mike McCarthy said after the injury, via The Associated Press' Todd McMahon.
The Packers still have the option to re-sign Guion, who is working through felony drug and weapon charges he had brought against him in February, even if they re-sign Raji. Pete Dougherty of the Green Bay Press-Gazette thinks Guion's legal troubles could allow the Packers to re-sign him for the seven-year veteran minimum of $870,000.
Especially given that they could have another option at nose tackle if Guion's proceedings resolve themselves, the Packers won't offer Raji the same deal he got last offseason, but he will likely return for the 2015 season.
Prediction: Tramon Williams Will Not Return in 2015
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Tramon Williams led the Packers in interceptions in 2014 and played more snaps than any other defensive player. He totaled 1,124, per Pro Football Focus.
His last two seasons have seen him rack up more tackles than at any other time in his nine-year career.
The former undrafted free agent has only had one season between 2007 and 2014 in which he didn't play 16 games; in 2011, he played 15 after missing the Week 2 matchup with a shoulder injury.
However, Williams will turn 32 this month and had a base salary of $6.9 million in 2014, with a total cap hit of $9.5 million.
Ted Thompson is not in the habit of re-signing players over the age of 30, especially not at that price. As ESPN.com's Rob Demovksy points out, the Packers only had two players older than 31 on the roster last season.
Demovksy also reported that, as of February 21, the Packers had not begun any talks of a contract extension with Williams as they strive to re-sign priority free agents Randall Cobb and Bulaga.
Has Williams earned a contract based on his play alone? Certainly, and if Green Bay does not re-sign him, he'll find a home elsewhere in the league for 2015. But his age and his cap hit work especially hard against him when Green Bay has a homegrown contender in 25-year-old Davon House and Casey Hayward.
Given that youth at the position, as well as the potential cornerbacks the Packers could draft in April, it's not a great investment of resources to re-sign Williams, who is coming off a four-year, $33 million contract extension he signed during the 2010 season.
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Prediction: Ted Thompson Will Succeed in Re-Signing Randall Cobb
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The chances of Randall Cobb reaching the free-agent market and being snatched up by a team wiling to pay big money for one of the league's best slot receivers seem to grow more likely each day.
However, expect Ted Thompson to find a way to retain the player he has developed so well and make an investment in his future by re-signing him.
After the franchise tag deadline came and went on Monday without the Packers using the tag on Cobb, Silverstein of the Journal Sentinel reported that one source said the word at the combine was that Cobb's price is $12 million per year.
This comes after ESPN.com's Demovksy said Cobb is reportedly seeking a deal that averages about $9 million per year.
Don't place too much stock in the numbers flying around. Cobb's agent, Jimmy Sexton, may be attempting to gauge interest on the market, while Ryan Wood of the Green Bay Press-Gazette spoke with one agent who thinks anything more than $10 million for Cobb is unrealistic.
"Talked with one agent who represents a top WR. Said "great deal" for Cobb on open market would be $10M. Anything higher "very" unrealistic.
— Ryan Wood (@ByRyanWood) March 2, 2015"
With over $32 million in available cap space, and especially if he lets pricey veterans like Williams walk, Thompson should be able to prioritize re-signing Cobb closer to that $10 million price.
Just 24 years old, Cobb has yet to reach his peak and was not only a leading scorer for Green Bay in 2014 but was the third in the league in production. Thompson's strategy is built around developing young talent and rewarding them for production, and Cobb is one of his greatest success stories.
Prediction: Green Bay Will Sign a Free-Agent Linebacker
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Just because Ted Thompson signed Julius Peppers in free agency last offseason doesn't mean he'll begin bringing in veterans every offseason. However, Thompson has usually been adept at gauging the free-agent market, and if the price is right at the inside linebacker position, Thompson might sign one in addition to drafting for the position in April.
The Packers have cut Brad Jones and A.J. Hawk this offseason, and Jamari Lattimore will become a free agent. The Packers need a starting-caliber player to plug in next to Sam Barrington and need to add depth at the position.
Look, for example, at the success Thompson had with signing Guion last offseason. Guion became a starting-caliber player for Green Bay, but the price (one year for $1 million) was right.
Two intriguing inside linebackers projected to become free agents later this month with 2014 cap hits of $1.5 million or less are Mason Foster of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Josh Bynes of the Detroit Lions.
Davis Harris of the New York Jets and Brandon Spikes of the Buffalo Bills may also be available in free agency, but both had cap hits greater than $3 million (and more than double that for Harris) last season.
Bynes ranked in the top 15 among inside linebackers in 2015, per Pro Football Focus, and is only 25 years old. Foster, only 26 himself, called the plays for Buccaneers in 2014 and improved his coverage skills.
Depending on how early in the draft Thompson addresses the position, he may find Green Bay's second starter there, but signing a low-cost veteran for depth would strengthen the thin position.
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