
Free Agent or Draft: How Should San Francisco 49ers Fill Their Biggest Holes?
The San Francisco 49ers have endured a turbulent offseason already. A slew of coaching changes have highlighted the 49ers' 2015 campaign, and now the franchise will face plenty of questions with the NFL free-agency period on the horizon.
Complicating San Francisco's plans will be the likely departure of a number of key free agents. Players like offensive guard Mike Iupati, cornerback Chris Culliver, running back Frank Gore and wide receivers Michael Crabtree and Brandon Lloyd are some of the notable names hitting the market March 9.
The 49ers are pressed up against the salary cap. According to Over the Cap, San Francisco will have $6,242,889 in cap space heading into the 2015 season. This figure does not include any re-signed players, which doesn't exactly leave general manager Trent Baalke with a lot of room to get into deep negotiations.
And then there is the 2015 NFL draft. San Francisco will have nine picks with which to work. Given the 49ers' cap situation, it's entirely plausible they look to address some pressing needs via the draft instead of supplementing with pricey free agents.
So what will be the best means for San Francisco to plug the gaps? Will free agency be the answer, or will the 49ers try to strike gold when the draft commences at the end of April?
Let's try to answer that.
Plugging the Gaps
1 of 6Nineteen 49ers are poised to hit free agency this offseason.
Among these are some notable names. Running back Frank Gore is one player—so long an instrumental piece to the offense—who could be wearing a different uniform in 2015.
According to Matt Maiocco of CSN Bay Area (h/t 95.7 The Game), the Indianapolis Colts could be the favorites in landing the 31-year-old veteran's services.
".@MaioccoCSN doesn't think it's a given Frank Gore is back next year with the #49ers. Says #Colts could be landing spot for him.
— 95.7 The GAME (@957thegame) February 25, 2015"
Other key names are wide receiver Michael Crabtree and offensive guard Mike Iupati. Both players' contractual demands will almost assuredly mean a free-agent departure.
And then there is the situation at cornerback. Both defensive backs Chris Culliver and Perrish Cox are free agents, and it will be hard pressed for San Francisco to re-sign both players.
The 49ers do have some in-house options for addressing all these needs. No. 2 running back Carlos Hyde could bear the brunt of the running-game duties in his second pro season if Gore walks. Up-and-coming corners like Jimmie Ward, Dontae Johnson, Kenneth Acker and Keith Reaser will help reinforce the secondary.
Yet the 49ers might not be entirely comfortable with players currently under contract. Finding their replacements and/or upgrades will be determined via the draft or in free agency.
Offensive Line
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San Francisco's offensive line was a liability in 2015. This unit allowed a total of 52 sacks over the course of the season.
Granted, not all of these were on the O-line. But injuries and inconsistent play marked what was an underwhelming performance in 2014.
Now, offensive guard Mike Iupati will likely leave the 49ers en route to becoming one of the highest-paid guards in the NFL. According to Dianna Russini of NBC Sports, Iupati is drawing strong interest from the Washington Redskins and Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
"Sources say Redskins have strong interest in 49ers guard Mike Iupati. The Bucs also like the 6'5 330 lbs. offensive lineman #Redskins #Bucs
— Dianna Marie Russini (@NBCdianna) February 27, 2015"
Fortunately, not all is lost if Iupati departs and the 49ers aren't able to find a capable replacement via the draft or free agency.
Center Daniel Kilgore should return from his season-ending leg injury. This will force second-year pro Marcus Martin into a competition with fellow one-year veteran Brandon Thomas—who was redshirted his rookie season—at the left guard position.
This competition could work into San Francisco's favor. Both Martin and Thomas were highly regarded collegiate prospects when drafted by the 49ers.
As such, the need to sign a veteran free agent diminishes.
There are some mid- to late-round guard prospects in this year's draft class. Addressing this need with one of the 49ers latter picks might be a smarter option.
Prediction: Draft
Defensive Line
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The 49ers defensive line could look vastly different at the start of the 2015 season compared to the unit that graced Week 1 of 2014.
Defensive end Ray McDonald is gone. Fellow end Justin Smith could also be on his way out, albeit by his own choice. The 35-year-old veteran has hinted at retirement after 14 NFL seasons.
"Will Justin Smith return for a 15th NFL season? #49ers coach Jim Tomsula provided an update. http://t.co/YqltFSgU8s pic.twitter.com/61WRRY2JGh
— San Francisco 49ers (@49ers) February 19, 2015"
Like the O-line, San Francisco does have some in-house options. Players like D-linemen Tank Carradine, Quinton Dial, Ian Williams or Glenn Dorsey could supplement some needs here should Smith retire.
If he does, this need becomes even more pressing. But will such a need be addressed via the draft or in free agency?
Most of the high-profile pass-rushers—players like Ndamukong Suh and Jason Pierre-Paul—will price themselves out of the 49ers' financial plans.
So that leaves the NFL draft as another option. This will likely be the primary source of the 49ers' needs here.
Some mock drafts, like that of ESPN's Todd McShay (h/t Paul Gutierrez of ESPN), have the 49ers targeting Oregon D-lineman Arik Armstead early.
This could be the route San Francisco takes. But it wouldn't be surprising to see the 49ers target a low-cost free agent who could add some veteran presence along the line.
Prediction: Draft
Cornerback
4 of 6The 49ers have selected a defensive back each of the last two Round 1 draft classes. In 2013, it was safety Eric Reid. General manager Trent Baalke then selected defensive back Jimmie Ward in 2014.
This probably won't be the case in 2015. There are much more pressing needs. But this doesn't rule out some potential voids within the secondary.
Chief among these are cornerbacks Chris Culliver and Perrish Cox. Both of these players combined for nine interceptions and 33 passes defended last season. Yet retaining both Culliver and Cox will be a difficult task.
Matt Maiocco of CSN Bay Area speculates that the choice with be signing only one of the two:
"The 49ers are not likely to re-sign both cornerbacks. The 49ers have salary-cap concerns that will force them to make some choices. OverTheCap.com lists the 49ers as $3.787 million under the projected salary cap, while Spotrac.com has the 49ers as $1.577 million under.
"
Culliver will likely command the bigger contract this offseason. Should he walk, the 49ers would be relying on an incumbent cast of corners Tramaine Brock, Dontae Johnson, Keith Reaser, Kenneth Acker and, if he re-signs, Cox.
San Francisco could have a top free-agent target. Cornerback Antonio Cromartie could be on the 49ers' radar this offseason as described in the video above. The 30-year-old veteran earned $2.25 million last season with the Arizona Cardinals.
But the 49ers could also select another corner in the draft instead. Perhaps someone like LSU's Jalen Collins would be a nice target in Round 2.
San Francisco might elect to go with the latter option. But it wouldn't be surprising to try and retain Cox services to supplement this need.
Prediction: Free Agency
Wide Receiver
5 of 6Wide receiver might be the No. 1 priority for San Francisco this offseason.
The 49ers are poised to part ways with veteran wideouts Michael Crabtree and Brandon Lloyd. And then there is the possibility San Francisco cuts wideout Stevie Johnson to create more cap space. Aside from 34-year-old receiver Anquan Boldin, there aren't exactly a lot of threats from this position.
San Francisco needs an impact wideout who can bring playmaking speed to the offense. Numerous mock drafts have the 49ers taking a wide receiver with the No. 15 overall pick in 2015.
While not as deep as a year ago, this season's draft class offers a number of enticing wide receiver prospects.
Collegiate players like Louisville's DeVante Parker, West Virginia's Kevin White, Arizona State's Jaelen Strong and Oklahoma's Dorial Green-Beckham are all first-round possibilities for San Francisco. And any of these guys could offer the impact the 49ers need.
Free agency doesn't necessarily offer this impact.
While there are some low-cost options on the market—such as St. Louis Rams wideout Kenny Britt and Jacksonville Jaguars receiver Cecil Shorts—there is a serious need for San Francisco to find its playmaking receiver via the draft.
Barring exceptional circumstances, San Francisco will look to the draft to fill this void.
Prediction: Draft
Running Back
6 of 6There is a strong possibility that 49ers fans have seen the last of running back Frank Gore in San Francisco.
As mentioned earlier, there are signs pointing to Gore signing elsewhere in 2015. Such a move would leave the 49ers with two likable options under contract for this season: Carlos Hyde and Kendall Hunter.
The time might be now for San Francisco to turn the page and let Hyde be the featured back on offense. But, if Gore walks, how will general manager Trent Baalke add the needed depth at this position?
Running the ball will continue to be at the heart of San Francisco's offense despite the team's multitude of coaching changes. As such, one cannot underestimate the importance of a dominant running game in 2015.
Targeting running backs in the draft has been a constant for Baalke. LaMichael James was selected in 2012. Marcus Lattimore was drafted, and subsequently redshirted, in 2013. Hyde entered the fray the following year.
Will the 49ers take a similar approach in 2015?
This year's draft class offers a deep cast of backs that could supplement such a need. Wideouts T.J. Yeldon and David Cobb are middle-round options that might give San Francisco some depth here.
But the 49ers might approach this need via free agency. One potential target is San Diego Chargers back Ryan Mathews—a possibility described in the above video.
Mathews counted for $3.612 against the cap last season—a year plagued by injury in which Mathews appeared in just eight games for the Chargers.
He won't make that much this season, but will the cap-pressed 49ers be able to fit him into their budget?
Signing a player like Mathews might be more of a stop-gap option should Gore sign elsewhere and the 49ers feel as if some of the prospective targets are not to their liking.
But cap considerations likely rule out this possibility.
Prediction: Draft
All statistics, records and accolades courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference.com unless otherwise indicated. Contractual information courtesy of Spotrac.com unless notified otherwise.
Peter Panacy is a featured columnist for Bleacher Report, covering the San Francisco 49ers. Be sure to check out his entire archive on 49ers news, insight and analysis.
Follow @PeterPanacy on Twitter.
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