The Free-Agency Guide to Randall Cobb

Swiss Army knife. Jack of all trades. Multifaceted weapon. Randall Cobb.

Whether he was lining up in the backfield, torching cornerbacks from the slot or terrorizing teams as a punt returner, Cobb has been increasingly invaluable for the Packers offense. Free agency is coming at a perfect time for the 24-year-old.

Top of the Roller Coaster

Green Bay's talented receiver broke into the league in a big way, returning a kickoff 108 yards for a touchdown in his first game. That was after having caught a 32-yard touchdown in a shootout against the then-powerhouse New Orleans Saints back in 2011.

That game was like the peak of a roller coaster's first climb, flush with anticipation and excitement. Like the ensuing, shriek-filled drop into a frenzy of turns, rolls and flips, Cobb's career plummeted quickly.

The receiver out of Kentucky wouldn't score again as a rookie, only catching 25 passes for 375 yards the rest of the way. That shouldn't have been terribly surprising given he was the fourth wheel at receiver—Jordy Nelson, Greg Jennings and James Jones all demanded targets, after all. 

Year	G	Rec	Yds	TD	Ret	Yds	TD	Rt	Yds	TD
2011	15	25	375	1	26	295	1	34	941	1
2012	15	80	954	8	31	292	1	38	964	0
2013	6	31	433	4	3	23	0	1	10	0
2014	16	91	1287	12	14	112	0	1	0	0

Cobb's sophomore campaign was much nicer, as he got close to 1,000 yards receiving and got into the end zone eight times. Any momentum he created with a great second season was short-circuited by a broken leg in 2013, knocking him out for the season after just six games.

His career has reached another pinnacle after a fantastic season. Are we in for another sudden drop?

Cobb was one of the most efficient receivers in the entire league last season. He caught 72.8 percent of his passes, tied for seventh-best in the league among receivers who played least 50 percent of offensive snaps last season according to Pro Football Focus.

His "WR rating"—the rating his quarterback got when targeting him—was the highest in the league at 134.8. He did most of his damage as a receiver from the slot, with all but 19 of his 125 targets coming from there.

Receiver	Team	Height	Weight	Average*
Calvin Johnson	DET	6'5"	236 lbs	$16.21
Dez Bryant	DAL	6'2"	220 lbs	$12.82
Demaryius Thomas	DEN	6'3"	229 lbs	$12.82
Mike Wallace	MIA	6'0"	200 lbs	$12.00
Dwayne Bowe	KC	6'2"	220 lbs	$11.20
Vincent Jackson	TB	6'5"	230 lbs	$11.11
Larry Fitzgerald	ARI	6'3"	218 lbs	$11.00
Percy Harvin	NYJ	5'11"	184 lbs	$10.71
Brandon Marshall	CHI	6'4"	230 lbs	$10.00
Jordy Nelson	GB	6'3"	217 lbs	$9.76
Andre Johnson	HOU	6'3"	230 lbs	$9.69
Greg Jennings	MIN	6'0"	195 lbs	$9.00
Victor Cruz	NYG	6'0"	204 lbs	$8.60
Pierre Garcon	WAS	6'0"	216 lbs	$8.50
Antonio Brown	PIT	5'10"	186 lbs	$8.39
Marques Colston	NO	6'4"	225 lbs	$7.26
Eric Decker	NYJ	6'3"	214 lbs	$7.25
Stevie Johnson	SF	6'2"	207 lbs	$7.25
Golden Tate	DET	5'10"	195 lbs	$6.20
DeSean Jackson	WAS	5'10"	178 lbs	$6.00

That will be an interesting point of negotiation: How many slot receivers make mega money? Only one receiver getting paid in the top 20 average annual salary right now spent over 50 percent of his time in the slot—Greg Jennings—and he was hardly a difference-maker for the Vikings last season.

Wherever he lands, it's difficult to imagine him being a huge part of special teams with a massive contract. Outside of Pittsburgh, where Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin insists on using star receiver Antonio Brown on punt returns, there aren't many instances of highly paid players returning kicks.

You will note there are only four receivers under 6'0" and five under 200 pounds who get paid in the top 20. Outside of Antonio Brown and occasionally Golden Tate, there hasn't been much reason to give big money to small receivers.

Now, if anyone can join Brown as one of the top receivers in the game, it's Cobb. He's not far off from a statistical standpoint.

There is a bit of a "chicken or the egg" question here with Cobb. Who wouldn't look good catching passes from league MVP Aaron Rodgers? 

Jones and Jennings have provided some compelling evidence that Rodgers was important to their production, having seen nowhere near the numbers they got in Green Bay while playing for the Oakland Raiders and Minnesota Vikings, respectively.

What Social Media is Saying

Here is what social media is saying about Cobb as he heads into free agency:

"

Randall Cobb at $12M/year sounds crazy until you remember these WR contracts: Bowe ($11.2M/yr), Wallace ($12M/yr), and Harvin ($12.8M/yr).

— Graham Barfield (@GrahamBarfield) March 2, 2015"

Testing the Market

The Packers reportedly want to re-sign Cobb, per ESPN.com's Rob Demovsky. And why wouldn't they?

Unsurprisingly, money is the problem. If Cobb thinks he can get a deal in excess of $50 million elsewhere, he may not have a future in Green Bay. General manager Ted Thompson has been notoriously frugal over the years, ponying up big money in only a handful of situations.

Given he is already paying his No. 1 receiver—granted, Jordy Nelson was a ridiculous bargain at $39 million over four years—and another rich draft class, Thompson may simply let Cobb walk. 

After all, the Packers could have used the franchise tag on Cobb and retained his services for one more year. Instead, it seems he is set to hit free agency.

If and when he does, Cobb is going to find himself in demand. 

One team that has been heavily rumored to be pursuing Cobb is the Raiders, who seem to have established a veritable pipeline from Wisconsin to the Bay Area. 

The Raiders certainly have the cap space to sign him, second-most in the league with nearly $55 million in head room. The Browns, Jets, Colts and Titans also have a need and a ton of money.

All that points to a bidding war for Cobb's services unless he really wants to stay in Green Bay. The Packers do offer something most of those other teams can—an MVP quarterback. Heck, they can't even offer a good one.

Cobb is certainly entitled to go after every penny, but landing with another team could mean a rather lengthy postseason drought for a guy who's been to the playoffs in each of his first four years in the league.

The human slot machine might hit the jackpot in free agency, but he could come back to burn the house.

Follow @AlexMiglio