Roger Federer Sets Stage for Run at No. 1 After Dubai Title
Roger Federer still hasn't received the memo about his impending tennis demise.
He may be sponsored by Rolex and hail from a country renowned for its precision instruments, but Federer seems to draw more pleasure by turning time back, and he used a vintage performance to topple Novak Djokovic 6-3, 7-5 for the Dubai title.
After his third-round exit at the Australian Open, Federer had to waft through more scrutiny about his future on the courts—or if he even had one left. Skeptics were quick to write his obituary after he lost to Andreas Seppi, once again doubting his ability to remain relevant.
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If anything, that defeat helped him recharge.
Because of an offseason cut short by Davis Cup duties and an exhibition for his charity, Federer didn't have much time to rest between last fall and this year's Australian Open. Winning the title in Brisbane to start 2015 put extra wear on his body before Melbourne. When he sauntered off Rod Laver Arena after the defeat to Seppi, it became clear he needed a break physically.
The rest did him well. In his first tournament back, Federer tore through the field in Dubai without dropping a set. He swept past veterans Mikhail Youzhny, Fernando Verdasco and Richard Gasquet before thumping 18-year-old prodigy Borna Coric in the semifinals.
He saved his best for last with a dominant win over Djokovic in the final, using the fast courts to mercilessly attack the net and rip breathtaking backhands up the line. Impressively, Federer saved all seven break points against him. In the hot Arab desert, he was the definition of cool.
"Look what I've got in the trunk of my car! 👊✨ #TrophySelfie pic.twitter.com/4IX4qrfytv
— Roger Federer (@rogerfederer) February 28, 2015"
But after capturing his record seventh Dubai crown, a bigger prize could be in his sights.
While Federer may not admit it publicly, the possibility of returning to No. 1 in the world has to be extremely tantalizing. Not only would he prove something to himself by vaulting past his younger rivals and hush the calls for his retirement, but the Swiss would add another milestone to his resume.
Andre Agassi currently holds the record as the oldest male tennis player to be ranked No. 1. On May 11, 2003, Agassi reached that plateau at 33 years and 11 days old.
For the man who already has everything, surpassing that mark would only bolster Federer's case as the Greatest of All Time. He's competing in an era with more depth of talent than arguably any other in tennis history. With Djokovic and Rafael Nadal—two legends in their own right—as well as Andy Murray, the fight for No. 1 has been extremely competitive the last decade.
It's easy to forget that Federer is significantly older than his rivals. He'll celebrate his 34th birthday on August 8. Nadal will turn 29 this June while Djokovic and Murray will both be 28 during May. In a sport where movement and foot speed are so vital, it's a testament to Federer's sheer talent that he's been able to stay relevant for this long.
So how realistic would another rise to the top be for Federer? It's not as impossible as it may have seemed just a month ago. By winning the title in Dubai, he showed there's still magic left in his Wilson racket.
The gap between Djokovic and Federer for the No. 1 ranking is undeniably large at the moment. Djokovic currently holds 13,165 points, while Federer sits at No. 2 with 9,205 points. It may seem like an insurmountable climb, but Djokovic has more to lose over the next few months.
Between now and Wimbledon, Djokovic will be defending 6,560 points. Last year, he won Wimbledon and finished runner-up at the French Open. That's 3,200 points. He also captured Masters 1000 titles at Indian Wells, Miami and Rome—another 3,000 points. He skipped Madrid because of a wrist injury, but Djokovic raised the bar unbelievably high for himself.
Federer, on the other hand, is defending only 3,020 points through July. The bulk of those points came with his second-place finish at Wimbledon, meaning he has a big opportunity to make up ground this spring.
While he won Halle and reached the finals of Indian Wells and Monte Carlo last year, Federer bowed out of Roland Garros in the fourth round, lost in the second round in Rome and skipped Madrid altogether. Improvement at those three tournaments will be crucial.
He's already adjusted his schedule to put a bigger emphasis on the clay-court swing in 2015. Federer won't play Miami—where he would've defended only 180 points. Instead, he's set set to play at the inaugural Istanbul Open in April between appearances in Monte Carlo and Rome.
Istanbul presents another chance for Federer to gain valuable points. More importantly, he'll have more match time to fine-tune his game before the French Open. If he finds better results on clay this year, Federer could enter Wimbledon with a very real shot at getting back to the top.
The elephant in the room is obviously Nadal, his frequent tormentor and the King of Clay. Spring is when the Spaniard has always cleaned up, ruling the red dirt with an iron fist. But the Nadal who's shown up this season is more vulnerable than ever.
Working his way back from a litany of injuries, Nadal hasn't yet showcased his usual brilliance and confidence. Despite his recent title in Buenos Aires, earlier losses in Doha, Melbourne and Rio have blemished his record. He's still trying to harness his game. Nadal will have to turn the corner soon or risk losing more ground in the chase for No. 1.
Because of his wins at the French Open and Madrid in 2014, as well as finals berths in Rome and Miami, Nadal is defending 4,695 between now and early June. That puts a ton of pressure on his fragile back to perform well this spring. With Djokovic aiming to finally steal the Roland Garros crown, Nadal's reign on the terra baute will face its toughest challenge yet.
Throw in a resurgent David Ferrer and a fast-improving Kei Nishikori, and it's evident that this year's clay-court schedule won't be easy for Nadal. Failing to match his results from last spring will throw valuable points up for grabs, which Federer can seize.
At this stage of his career, it's not realistic to expect Federer to win the French Open. Because of his age and the style he plays, the slow Parisian courts don't suit him well, especially against base-line stars like Nadal and Djokovic. But there's no doubt he can still reach the quarterfinals or even the semifinals there.
If he does falter at Roland Garros or in Rome—one of the only events he hasn't won—he can use Istanbul to gain additional points. Clay has never been his forte, but Federer has added incentive to perform well on the dirt this time around.
As he nears age 34 and watches a horde of young talent rise up, Federer may have one final chance to gain back the No. 1 ranking over the next few months. If he does, it'll go down as one of his most amazing feats.
All statistics courtesy of ATPWorldTour.com unless otherwise noted.
Joe Kennard is a Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report.
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