Louisville Shows Why It's NCAA Tournament's Biggest Wild Card in Virginia Win

To understand what the Louisville Cardinals men's basketball team brings to the upcoming NCAA tournament, look no further than the play that won its game on Saturday—and then compare it to what that play was supposed to be.

This may be an exercise in futility—because none of it made any sense—yet it worked. And because of this, Louisville might be the most hard-to-peg team when assessing every tourney team's chances.

Little-used reserve forward Mangok Mathiang was probably a distant fifth out of five options to take a go-ahead shot in the final moments, yet it was his 14-footer with 2.7 seconds left that swished through and put the Cardinals ahead for an eventual 59-57 home win over the ACC regular-season champion Virginia Cavaliers.

"Mangok was the 64th option," Louisville head coach Rick Pitino deadpanned in the postgame press conference, per the The Courier-Journal (Louisville). "But I will say this: Mangok has gone in the gym every night for the last two months. ... That shot was good from the moment it left his hands."

Mathiang, a 6'10" sophomore from Australia who had made one basket (on 16 tries) since Jan. 31, was on the court to take up space and get in the way rather than attempt the most important shot of the season for Louisville.

Sophomore guard Terry Rozier was supposed to take that shot or get it inside to Montrezl Harrell to complete what was a great final game for the junior forward—who will undoubtedly head to the NBA after this season.

Instead, Mathiang was wide open, as he tends to be when getting the ball at the top of the free-throw line. Normally, he tries to drive the ball and ends up turning it over, Pitino said, despite the coach urging him to learn to score from that spot.

"I told him, 'If you can't make a 14-foot shot, son, you can't play college basketball at the University of Louisville,'" Pitino said.

It was the unlikeliest of finishes on Saturday, yet it continued a season-long trend for Louisville (24-7, 12-6 ACC). The Cardinals have been all over the map this year, winning games they probably shouldn't and losing those that, on paper, looked like runaway victories. In between, the individual turmoil has shaken up the roster and rattled the confidence of some of Louisville's best players.

Louisville earned the No. 4 seed in the ACC tournament, which gives it a double-bye into the quarterfinals—and means an extra day of practice to get used to the hand it's been dealt. Louisville will be without senior guard Chris Jones and will have to rely on freshman guard Quentin Snider more than Pitino could have ever expected.

The team will have to go with what comes about, not assume that Rozier will stop heaving it up when the shots don't fall or that Harrell won't over-celebrate after a big play or appear disinterested in demanding the ball from time to time.

This is the team that Louisville is, and Pitino seems to have made peace with it.

"I don't think you guys realize how good a season this has been," he said. "... This team has reached its potential. ... I've been overly pleased with our record."

You can't really judge Louisville on its record or whatever seed it ends up with in the NCAA tournament—because the Cardinals team we're seeing now isn't the one that was supposed to be in this form. Jones was a huge piece before a slew of team violations (which may or may not be linked to a sexual assault investigation) led him to first be suspended and then dismissed.

Louisville's starting lineup has been in flux at the time when it was supposed to be solidifying, and this has prompted Pitino to tear out most of the pages in his playbook and simplify things.

Joe Robbins/Getty Images

"All we were doing was confusing our own guys," Pitino said, explaining how his team normally rotates between three defenses. "We were OK with Chris; once Q had to go in there, it was too many changes for a freshman to come in and have to play that many minutes."

Snider has averaged 32.6 minutes in his five starts since replacing Jones, averaging 9.4 points and 3.0 rebounds per game. More importantly, he's handled his defensive assignments, benefiting from the simplistic approach that Pitino is using to eliminate disarray.

Yet muddled times still happen, whether it be for an entire game—Wednesday's home loss to Notre Dame—or for extended stretches or single plays such as those against Virginia. This is a team that still hasn't shown the ability to stay consistent—unless you count when it's consistently inconsistent.

Handicapping how the NCAA tournament will go is as difficult for the Cardinals as it is for any other team in the field. If Harrell remains aggressive and interested, and Rozier embraces selectivity—his eight attempts against Virginia were his fewest since Dec. 23, yet he made four of them—this team will make it to the second weekend and be a force.

If Rozier decides to shoot it 20 times and keeps Harrell from getting touches on the majority of possessions, Louisville will be a first-game loser.

Even Pitino has no idea what to expect from here on out. When asked to assess the Cardinals' chances in the ACC tournament, he snickered and provided as honest an answer as any coach has this season.

"I'm just thinking about having a beer right now," Pitino said. "... Can we make a run? It all depends on the matchups."

Follow Brian J. Pedersen on Twitter at @realBJP.