2015 NBA Draft Prospects with Something to Prove over Final Month
The month of March is the last opportunity for 2015 NBA draft prospects to make an impression until the combine in May.
It's essentially the final stage of in-game auditions.
And with February winding down, a handful of prospects still have some selling to do.
Most of them have flashed glimpses of their potential—just not consistently enough throughout the year, and it's made them a little tougher to buy. For the following players, a big March could end up going a long way toward eliminating any doubt they had raised early in the season.
These are the prospects who must finish strong to maximize their 2015 draft stock heading into the summer.
Terry Rozier, Louisville, 6'1", PG/SG, Sophomore
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Despite averaging 17.7 points per game, Terry Rozier's sales pitch to the pros hasn't been overly convincing. He's shown little in terms of facilitating the offense or creating shots for others, sporting an ugly ratio of 2.5 assists to 2.1 turnovers and an uninspiring 17.2 percent assist percentage, per Sports-Reference.com.
You probably won't find many general managers looking to reach on a 6'1" shoot-first scorer.
Rozier ultimately has a month to change the perception of his game, and with the team recently dismissing backcourt mate Chris Jones, the opportunity to do so is available.
Only the early results have been discouraging. In his first three games without Jones in the lineup, he's totaled six assists and seven turnovers on 32.6 percent shooting (17.3 shots per game).
Rozier is a terrific athlete with strong defensive tools and the ability to connect from all three levels. His shot-making consistency isn't there, but he's dangerous in the open floor, capable of pulling up and threatening from three.
However, unless he shows he can set the table or find ways to make his teammates better, don't expect general managers to start knocking down his door.
Kelly Oubre, Kansas, 6'7", SF, Freshman
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Few prospects have been streakier than Kelly Oubre, who's alternated productive weeks with quiet ones since cracking Kansas' rotation.
In February alone, he's had four games with 14 or more points and three games with six or less.
For evaluators, there's nothing more convincing than consistency—being able to make a regular impact night after night. And that's something Oubre has struggled to do.
The appeal to Oubre ultimately stems from his athleticism and shooting stroke, a blend that's always bound to attract NBA attention. But he's made just 16 shots at the rim all year in the half court, via Hoop-Math; he gets to the line 2.3 times per game and averages less than one assist.
Oubre looks good in the open floor and spotting up from three, but we haven't seen the playmaking or scoring versatility that initially seemed to fuel top-five upside.
Pro Basketball Talk's Rob Dauster recently tweeted he'd lean toward Kentucky's Devin Booker as the better long-term prospect, an idea that would have seemed silly last summer.
Based on what we've seen so far, I'm with Dauster—Oubre has slipped. He has a month to remind the basketball community why he'd originally been viewed as a can't-miss prospect.
Myles Turner, Texas, 6'11", PF/C, Freshman
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Myles Turner looks like a top-10 pick when he's on his game. It just only seems to happen against inferior competition.
In nine games against ranked opponents this year, he's shot just 37.1 percent on 70 attempts and averaged a whopping 6.7 fouls per 40 minutes.
We've just seen little offensive consistency from Turner throughout the year, a likely result of 74.9 percent of his shots coming away from the rim, per Hoop-Match. And though there's plenty of intrigue surrounding his jumper, he's only hit 30.2 percent of his threes on 16 total makes.
He's ultimately still looking to find his sweet spots on the floor.
Turner will get a crack at Kansas on February 28 and Baylor on March 2 before the Big 12 conference tournament—two more opportunities to make an impression against quality opponents.
Karl-Anthony Towns, Kentucky, 6'11", PF/C, Freshman
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Karl-Anthony Towns doesn't have much to prove with regard to talent. He's clearly NBA material and practically a top-five lock this June.
But let's raise the bar.
Assuming Towns will be gunning for that No. 1 pick, he'll have some work to do the final month to maximize his chances.
His exceptional play in February has made him a legitimate threat to Duke's Jahlil Okafor. Only Okafor hasn't quite taken his foot off the gas. He just went for 30 points and 10 boards on a shaky ankle Wednesday night against Virginia Tech.
Towns still hasn't hit the 20-point mark this season, and though he's strung together a couple of big-time outings over the past few weeks, we just haven't seen the convincing consistency all year round.
It would ultimately be a bad look for Towns, relatively speaking, if he suddenly lost his spark in March, especially if Okafor continues to dominate night after night.
For Towns, the key is staying active and out of foul trouble. If he wants to overtake Okafor as the No. 1 favorite, he'll need to keep the pressure on until the season is a wrap.
Because it doesn't seem like Okafor is ready to give his spot up easily.
Kris Dunn, Providence, 6'3", PG, Sophomore
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As good as Kris Dunn has been, he's struggled against a number of noteworthy opponents this season.
Dunn finished with six points against Notre Dame on November 23. And though he played on an ankle less than 100 percent, he followed by shooting 1-of-7 with 10 turnovers and three assists in a 20-point loss to Kentucky.
Dunn wasn't overly impressive in either matchup against Villanova this month, combining to shoot 9-of-30 with eight turnovers.
He's actually had trouble all season taking care of the ball. Only one player in the country has coughed it up more.
Otherwise, Dunn has been terrific. He averages 15.1 points and ranks No. 1 in the nation in assist percentage and No. 4 in steals per game, per Sports-Reference.com.
He'd just look a lot more believable as a prospect if he showed up against high-quality competition.
ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi has Providence as a No. 7 seed in the NCAA tournament. Dunn isn't going to get a better opportunity to build his NBA case than the one he'll have in March.
Consider him a fringe first-rounder one strong month away from potentially falling on the right side of the fence.
Cliff Alexander, Kansas, 6'8", PF, Freshman
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Cliff Alexander picked the wrong time to hit the wall—or the wrong time to lose coach Bill Self's trust, both of which might have happened over the last month.
Alexander played just six minutes against West Virginia February 16.
“The game was too much for him,” Self told The Kansas City Star's Rustin Dodd after the loss. “We thought that it would be tough for Cliff, them trapping him and passing out of it."
Alexander didn't exactly capitalize on his bounce-back opportunities, racking up three fouls in 11 minutes against TCU on Saturday and four fouls in 10 minutes in a loss to Kansas State on Monday.
He's now scored six total points over his last four games while averaging 3.7 over his last nine.
Assuming Alexander, a consensus 2014 top-five recruit, will be looking to bolt for the pros after his one season at Kansas, he'll have something to prove to scouts over the final month. Because at this stage, his NBA draft case isn't all that convincing.
He's shown little ball skill throughout the year without the ability to create his own shot or knock down jumpers. And as a big man who operates strictly in the paint, he's a bit undersized for an NBA power forward at 6'8".
Alexander's ceiling isn't as high as it once looked, which is likely to prevent teams from reaching in the lottery. But if he can't even sell the value tied to his motor and energy, which appear to be Alexander's moneymakers, he could have a tough time persuading general managers to buy him as a project worth investing in for the next few years.
Tyrone Wallace, California, 6'5", PG/SG, Junior
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After starting the year on fire and generating first-round buzz, Tyrone Wallace has quietly slipped out of the conversation.
He's currently sporting a 43.8 percent true shooting percentage during conference play, a scary number for a guard.
Wallace's assist-to-turnover ratio has also steadily declined (3.7 assists, 2.8 turnovers per game), as he now holds a negative pure point rating, per RealGM.
He's been somewhat of a tease throughout the year. At 6'5", he's an electric athlete who averages 7.5 boards per game and has a knack for scoring on the move.
He boasts legitimate upside, given his physical tools for a ball-handler and versatile playmaking ability.
But the inconsistency, poor shooting and questionable decision-making have been frustrating. After looking great against Utah on February 15 (26 points on four missed shots), he followed up by making six of his next 24 shots in losses to Stanford and Oregon.
He'll have a chance to rebound at Arizona on March 5 before the Pac-12 tournament arrives. Both will ultimately be strong opportunities to recapture the attention and interest of scouts.
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