Colts' Defensive Line Needs Grow Drastic with Jean Francois Release

As soon as the Indianapolis Colts' season ended, improving the defensive line became a priority. 

That'll happen when you allow 423 rushing yards in two games against the New England Patriots, including a 45-7 drubbing in the AFC Championship. 

The Colts weren't the league's worst run defenders last year, but they weren't particularly good, and when it counted, they fell flat. 

Year	PFF Grade (Rank)	DVOA	Adj. Line Yds	Yds/Gm	Yds/Att.
2012	-97.4 (32)	9.1% (32)	4.32 (27)	137.5 (29)	5.1 (31)
2013	-32.1 (24)	-0.1% (22)	4.30 (28)	125.1 (26)	4.5 (25)
2014	-23.2 (23)	-6.6% (19)	4.04 (22)	113.4 (18)	4.3 (22)

While head coach Chuck Pagano and Co. have preached run defense over the last three years, there has been little evidence that it's improved beyond the surface. Sure, the Colts were more apt to shut down bad teams last year, and they didn't get run over by teams like the St. Louis Rams and Arizona Cardinals.

But against quality teams, especially balanced offenses, the Colts were still just as susceptible to the run. It makes sense considering the fact that the Colts' best defenders (Vontae Davis, Robert Mathis) are specifically signed for their ability to shut down opposing passers and receivers.

There has definitely been improvement since 2012, which was an abysmal year by any measure. But from 2013 to 2014, the improvement likely had more to do with the Colts offense improving.

The Colts defense had a one-touchdown lead for 29 percent of the plays it was on the field in 2013, but it led by a touchdown or more for nearly 48 percent of the time in 2014. Opposing offenses were in throwing situations more often, and it played to the Colts' strengths.

When teams could limit the Colts' offensive output, the rushing totals and efficiency rose dramatically. With Indianapolis' offense giving the Colts big leads more often in 2014, the defense was in a better situation, and it shows in the stats.

The Colts' run defense really wasn't any better in 2014. Not the worst in the league, certainly, but still below average. On one hand, the offense's effectiveness under Andrew Luck should keep that from being a problem most of the time, and the Colts shouldn't build their defensive identity around stopping the run.

On the other hand, in order to beat well-rounded teams like the Patriots, the Colts must be able to match them in all phases, and the run defense (and rushing attack offensively) is lagging noticeably behind.

So, the quality was already lacking in Indianapolis. But now, the Colts are also lagging in quantity.

Year	Defensive End	Nose Tackle	Top PFF Grades
2013	Cory Redding, Fili Moala, Ricardo Mathews, Ricky Jean Francois, Lawrence Guy	Aubrayo Franklin, Josh Chapman, Montori Hughes	Redding (+9.8), Guy (+5.0), Jean Francois (+1.7)
2014	Cory Redding, Ricky Jean Francois, Arthur Jones, Zach Kerr, Kelcy Quarles	Josh Chapman, Montori Hughes	Redding (+3.7), Jean Francois (+0.4)
2015	Arthur Jones, Zach Kerr	Josh Chapman, Montori Hughes	N/A

With Ricky Jean Francois' recent release and Cory Redding's contract ending, the Colts are now down two starters and the two defensive linemen who have performed at the highest levels over the last two seasons.

So here we have the current state of the defensive line:

• Arthur Jones: A quality player, but one who struggled in his transition to Indianapolis. He had a few nagging injuries in 2014 and posted a negative-10.2 grade from Pro Football Focus. He should bounce back with a stronger year in 2015, but will the Colts ever get the player he was in Baltimore in 2013?
• Josh Chapman: A starter in 2014, Chapman is a good, but not great, run defender who offers nothing in pass rush. It's no coincidence that two of his worst games came against New England. He is likely better off as a rotational player rather than a starter.
• Zach Kerr: An undrafted free agent, Kerr flashed talent during his rookie season, but he didn't give the Colts much pass rush and occasionally got overpowered in the run game. He has potential, and the Colts like him, but he shouldn't be counted on for a starting position.
• Montori Hughes: He has played just over 300 snaps over the last two years and has made little impact. A fifth-rounder in 2013, he isn't more than a rotational, albeit versatile, player at this point.

That's it. Four players, with just one who can boast quality starting experience.

Though Jean Francois' release did save the Colts nearly $5 million in 2015, the fact that the Colts were willing to go through with the move despite the lack of bodies on the line is a hint that something is coming.

Perhaps it's a sign that Cory Redding is leaning toward returning, although that alone wouldn't be enough.

More likely is that the Colts plan on going after defensive linemen hard in the offseason, perhaps in both free agency and the draft.

Ndamukong Suh is the biggest name on the defensive line, but with the Detroit Lions doing everything they can to keep him (like releasing Reggie Bush on Wednesday), the Colts' attention should be elsewhere.

One name that has been increasingly popular to associate with Indianapolis is the Baltimore Ravens' Pernell McPhee.

McPhee played primarily outside linebacker in 2013 and 2014, but at 6'3", 280 pounds, he has the size and quickness to play all across the defensive line as well. When Chuck Pagano coached Baltimore in 2011, McPhee primarily played defensive tackle and racked up a positive-20.8 grade from Pro Football Focus, picking up seven sacks, six hits and 21 hurries on just 389 snaps.

But, like Arthur Jones, McPhee has been a limited starter in Baltimore, and how he would produce with a larger load of responsibility and with less talent surrounding him is questionable.

Nevertheless, the Colts are the subject of rumors regarding McPhee and will likely continue to be so as free agency approaches.

There are other options in free agency, such as Nick Fairley, Dan Williams or any number of the New York Jets' defensive linemen.

There's the draft as well.

There is decent depth and top-end talent in the trenches in this year's draft, and the Colts could have a chance to draft any number of them. In the first round alone, the Colts could have a shot at Danny Shelton (unlikely, but possible with his poor combine), Eddie Goldman, Jordan Phillips, Malcom Brown or Arik Armstead.

The fortunate part about this offseason is that there are a plethora of options available for the Colts to upgrade the line. If they can hit on a playmaker or two on the inside, the defense can improve dramatically.

We won't know if they have made the right move until the games are played in the fall, but we do know one thing: The Colts must make the defensive line a priority, the top priority, this offseason. With the release of Jean Francois, they really have no choice.