Monday Night Football: Jaguars vs. Dolphins Odds & Pick: August 17th 2009

NFL Pre-Season Football Betting
Jacksonville Jaguars (5-11 SU, 4-12 ATS in ‘08) at Miami Dolphins (11-5 SU, 8-8 ATS in ‘08) Monday, August 17
BetUS NFL Betting Odds:  MIAMI -3, Total 32
Here are some of the NFL pro football betting trends as they relate to this matchup:

•JAX has won nine of its last 12 pre-season games SU
•JAX has covered eight of its last 12 pre-season games
•JAX has played eight of its last 12 pre-season games OVER the total
•JAX has won and covered five of its last six pre-season home games
•MIA has won and covered six of its last nine pre-season games
•MIA has played its last five pre-season games UNDER the total
•MIA has played four of its last six pre-season games OVER the total

Jack Del Rio’s objective, from some perspective, is to stay healthy at the running back position. Maurice Jones-Drew is really the only alternative; since Fred Taylor was released the Jags cannot depend on a 1-2 punch in the backfield, so with so little depth it’s hard to imagine either of the top two backs getting extended very much. The same would go for Torry Holt, the new veteran wide receiver they signed, and tackle Tra Thomas, which creates something awkward because first-round pick Eugene Monroe, another tackle, has not signed.

However, Del Rio’s style is that he does want his team to play hard, and in this case it’s on the defensive side, where they are most definitely looking for a pass rush. Derrick Harvey and Quentin Groves, high draft choices from last season, have been disappointing. The Jags gave up 23 points a game last season, which is not where you want to be if you are playing a rather conservative, ball-control passing attack and a punishing rushing game.

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What should be interesting here is to watch the way the Dolphins employ their Wildcat offense with Pat White, a rookie, working it. That is likely to happen in the fourth period, when Jacksonville has its second and third-string people defending, and that may be a problem since White is probably going to be further advanced than most people in terms of the ‘Cat.

If Jacksonville is going to prepare for something like that, it’s likely to take away from some of the other things they are going to try to accomplish in preparation. For the most part, though, Chad Henne is going to be the quarterback for Miami, starting in the second quarter and possibly going into the fourth quarter. They want him to have every opportunity to work with the starting offense, both in practice and in the games. Supposedly he’s been looking pretty sharp in team drills.

They aren’t going to take much of a chance with the starter OR the heir apparent, so they will have the offensive line starters in for much of that time. Says Tony Sporano, “I have no interest in my line going out there and playing only one quarter.” I would expect that Jason Taylor, the new re-acquisition who was in for only handful of plays in the exhibition season two years ago, will see quite a bit more action as Sporano decides where he fits in.

I seem to recall that Bill Parcells usually wanted his teams to put forth a pretty good effort in the pre-season, and that attitude has obviously bled over to the people under his charge. Last year Miami went 3-1 SU & ATS in August, and outscored opponents 73-41. We’ll move with the Dolphins, the three-point favorite in the BetUS NFL pre-season football betting odds.

JAY’S PLAY:  MIAMI -3 ***
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)