Preview and Predictions for the 2015 Honda Classic
Did you hear that sound? No? Listen closely, that was Rory McIlroy making landfall for the 2015 Honda Classic.
The West Coast Swing was all well and good, but now things feel like they’re getting serious. Georgia and its Augusta National Golf Club wait just a few hundred miles north of PGA National Golf Club.
McIlroy makes his first start on U.S. soil in six months, and along with him comes Martin Kaymer, last year’s Players and U.S. Open champion. Fourteen other golfers from the top 30 will be in attendance, making this the most competitive field of the year to date.
McIlroy won this event in 2012 and lost in a four-way playoff last year. He wants that career Grand Slam and it all starts by breaking our borders and burning up the Honda Classic.
Read on for this week’s primer for the tour’s first trip east.
Where to Watch and Tournament Info
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Where
PGA National Golf Club
7,140 yards, Par 70
What
Total Purse: $6,100,000
Winners Share: $1,098,000
FedEx Points to Winner: 500
When
Thursday-Friday
2-6 p.m. ET, Golf Channel
Saturday-Sunday
1-3 p.m., Golf Channel; 3-6 p.m., NBC
Live coverage of the "Bear Trap" (holes No. 15 through No. 17) on Golf Channel
Biggest Storylines
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Good on ya, Rory McIlroy
Remember that time in 2014 when McIlroy’s game was in question? Remember freaky Fridays?
There was that stretch of four tournaments when he shot 77, 76, 74 and 78 on Fridays. He even sought the advice of the Golden Bear.
That’s clearly behind him, and he makes his U.S. debut at a tournament he relishes. He finished tied for second in 2014 and won in 2012. And his 2014 performance, so dominant and stunning to look at, feeds and informs what he hopes will be a repeat.
"I definitely look back at 2014 with pride. Over the Christmas period there, I had my first chance to really look back and reflect on the year and even watch a few of the highlights at some of the tournaments that I won. So it was nice to reflect. But I feel 2014 has really set me up for another great year this year. I feel like I'm coming into this year with a nice little bit of momentum, and my game is feeling good.
"
McIlroy has already won on the European Tour this year and shows no hangover effects from 2014’s blitzkrieg.
Wilkommen, Martin Kaymer
Kaymer, the 2014 U.S. Open champ, makes his U.S. debut at the Honda Classic as well.
In his two events on the European PGA Tour, Kaymer finished third and tied for fourth. Those are both positives since his finish to the 2014 season wasn’t as great as the start.
He won The Players Championship and salted the earth at the U.S. Open, but after that a shoulder injury kept him from being competitive for close to three months.
Nothing stands out while looking up and down Kaymer’s 2014 stat sheet. It merely looks better than average. Nothing stands out that tells you that this was a man who, for a few weeks before Hurricane McIlroy made landfall, was the scariest golfer on the planet.
For now, he’s back and appears to be in good health.
Bonjour, Victor Dubuisson
France’s Victor Dubuisson, runner up to Jason Day in the Match Play in 2014, makes his U.S. invasion too.
Dubuisson, a winner on the European PGA Tour, had a decent 2014 with top 10 finishes in the Open Championship as well as the PGA Championship.
He doesn’t visit the States, but when he does he makes sure his plane ticket is easily paid for by playing mainly WGC events and majors.
He’s ranked No. 17 in the world and is just another from the top 25 playing in this event. Dubuisson has shown flashes of brilliance on this side of the Atlantic, so it wouldn’t surprise anyone if he contends.
The Favorites
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Rory McIlroy
Did we mention McIlroy will be in this field?
Back when Tiger Woods hadn’t been defanged, the discussion was always "do you take Woods or the field?" Few took the field.
McIlroy is in that stratosphere where he is the favorite just for bringing his Nikes to the range.
"McIlroy has embraced the idea that he wants to be great every time he tees it up. He also has had success at this event in the recent past. He is close to home, which is something that never happens for him. If he doesn't have a top-5 finish this week, I would be very surprised. He wants to win the Masters, and this is the first step. Every round matters.
"
McIlroy isn’t coming here to get a feel for U.S. soil.
Dustin Johnson
Dustin Johnson is on some kind of mission since his return from a leave of absence.
In his three events in three weeks, Johnson missed a cut, then went T4 and P2. Every event has been an improvement, and his play has been immaculate of late.
Johnson is No. 1 in driving distance (315.5 yards) and third in strokes gained: tee to green with 1.826. He’s also No. 1 in approaches from 175-200 yards. He’s bombing it to seven-iron land.
"DJ says he took the time to get himself right both mentally and physically. And it appears he has taken the time to get his golf game in order. After finishing T4 last week at Pebble Beach, he was nearly broke through in just his third start back this week at Riviera. Most impressive Sunday was a wedge shot—the oft-cited weakness DJ's game and an impediment to larger success—that he hit from an near-impossible position at the iconic 10th green.
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Russell Henley
Russell Henley won this event a year ago against the would-be No. 1 player in McIlroy along with Ryan Palmer and Russell Knox.
The players at the end all scrambled and it was Henley who managed to stand tallest.
"This doesn't feel real," Henley said per Golf.com after the win.
Though he was cut 12 times in 2014, he did manage three top 10s including a T2 in the Deutsche Bank Championship.
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The Dark Horses
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Phil Mickelson is slowly sliding down into the ranks of seasoned players who can be mildly competitive but whose chances at winning are slim to none. He’s entering Vijay Singh territory (though Singh managed a T12 at the Northern Trust Open).
Mickelson came into this season fitter, with an eye on rebounding after a winless 2014 that saw him notch just one top 10 finish.
“It’s very frustrating for me right now,” Mickelson told Tom Marcin of International Business Daily.“I felt very ready for the start of the year. But my putting is pathetic right now. If I can’t get it back to my putting levels in 2013, I don’t know what I’ll do.”
He has been largely overlooked since Woods’ struggles have been so dominant. Until Woods is ready to return, the troubled golfer of the hour may just be Mickelson unless he can show some promise that the ocean liner that is his game is slowly making a turn for dry land.
Billy Horschel
Billy Horschel, last year’s FedEx Cup champion, hasn’t been diamond-sharp this year, but he hasn’t been awful either. Well, it has been acceptable.
He has missed one cut in 2015 and hasn’t cracked the top 20 yet this year. His best finish is T22 at the Tournament of Champions.
Where is the kink in his game if he’s No. 1 in ball striking and No. 4 in greens in regulation? It’s got to be putting, right? Yes, but it’s also his play around the green.
First, he’s 120th in scrambling and his approaches leave him having to scramble. Second, he’s making only 40 percent of his six-foot putts. He’s 122nd on tour on putts from within four to eight feet.
These are the putts players need to make for birdies and, sometimes, simply save par.
Graeme McDowell
Yet another Euro making his U.S. debut.
McDowell has had some success at the Honda Classic in recent years. From 2011-2013, McDowell earned three top 10s in this event.
Should it rain, Danny Norris of FanSided loves McDowell in this event:
"The biggest reason why I’m picking G-Mac to win is that course conditions should be rainy and sloppy. McDowell loves playing in the slop. The worse the conditions the better McDowell plays. Especially in the wind, McDowell has the flat level swing, which gives his ball a low trajectory meaning his ball is easier to control compared to someone with a higher ball trajectory.
"
We’ll see. The problem is there that other guy from Northern Ireland in this tournament too (that’s McIlroy for the newbies).
Predictions
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Winner: Dustin Johnson
You can't ignore his upward progression through his last few tournaments. That P2 at Riviera—and the T4 the prior week at Pebble Beach—are signs that his game is finely tuned and he is primed to hold up a ninth career trophy.
Flop Watch: Phil Mickelson
As hard as it's been to watch Woods suffer in his two events in 2015, equally painful is the slow unraveling of Mickelson's game. He doesn't need to win here. At this point, Lefty just needs to make the cut.
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