Duke Basketball: Keys to Winning Each Remaining Regular-Season Game

If you listen to many commentators and fans, the rest of the college basketball season and even the NCAA tournament is just a formality—Kentucky is going to run away with the national championship. 

Duke wouldn’t have it any other way.

The Blue Devils are never going to fly under the radar, but they control their own destiny for a No. 1 seed in the Big Dance if they take care of business in the remaining four regular-season games. The slates get wiped clean on Selection Sunday, and Duke’s No. 1 seed would give it just as good of a chance as Kentucky’s top seed.

First, though, Mike Krzyzewski’s squad has to win its final regular-season contests. With that in mind, here is a look at the key to victory for each of those games.

Feb 25: at Virginia Tech

Wilfredo Lee/Associated Press

Key to the game: Bury them early

There is no way to sugarcoat this for Virginia Tech—this season has been a disaster.

The Hokies are an abysmal 2-12 in the ACC, and those two victories came by a combined five points (one came in overtime). There is very little reason to think they could actually challenge a powerhouse like Duke, especially since they were blown out by the likes of West Virginia, Louisville, North Carolina and Notre Dame in other games against ranked teams. 

If the Blue Devils jump out ahead early, they should be able to bury any confidence from the Virginia Tech side. Major upsets happen when the underdog sticks around for long enough that they actually start to believe they can win, and the best thing Duke can do to avoid that is end any hope in the opening 10 minutes.

The Blue Devils certainly have the talent advantage in this one. They need to show it from the opening tip.

Feb. 28: vs. Syracuse

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Key to the game: Win the interior battle

When Duke lines up across from Syracuse, fans will be treated to an individual matchup between two of the best players in the conference and country. Duke Jahlil Okafor will square off with Syracuse’s Rakeem Christmas down low, and the winner of that individual battle could win the game as well.

Duke came out on top in the first matchup thanks to Okafor’s 23 points and 13 rebounds. Christmas only shot 5-of-17 from the field on his way to 11 points and six rebounds, which simply didn’t cut it against Duke.

Krzyzewski commented on the big-man matchup, via Mike Waters of Syracuse.com: “Jah played, I thought, great. Christmas is one of the top 10 players in America. Certainly one of the top two or three in our league. He's having a fantastic year. Watching the two of them play against each one another, it's big-time basketball.” 

It remains to be seen if Okafor is playing at a close to 100 percent level by this contest, but if he is, the winner of the battle between the two superstars will set the tone for his entire team.

March 4: vs. Wake Forest

Chuck Burton/Associated Press

Key to the game: Rebound

With Okafor and Amile Jefferson starting on the front line, Duke should have its way with most teams in the rebounding department, at least on paper. It should come as no surprise, then, that it is ranked No. 26 in the country in total rebounds per game.

However, Wake Forest is one of the few teams in the ACC that can theoretically contend with the Blue Devils on the boards.

The Demon Deacons are an impressive No. 13 in the country in the total-rebounds-per-game category, thanks largely to the presence of Devin Thomas. Thomas is a walking double-double who is averaging just less than 10 rebounds a night and should be able to keep Wake Forest in contention on the boards.

The Blue Devils are the more talented team and will pull away from Wake Forest as the game progresses as long as the Demon Deacons don’t completely control the rebounding on both sides of the floor.

March 7: at North Carolina

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Key to the game: Lock down the paint 

ESPN Stats & Info did not paint a pretty picture for the Blue Devils down low in their first game against the hated North Carolina Tar Heels:

Yes, Okafor’s ankle injury had a lot to do with North Carolina’s production, but the fact that the Tar Heels were able to turn a 13-point deficit into a 10-point lead simply by pounding it down low over and over has to be concerning. Kennedy Meeks, Brice Johnson, J.P. Tokoto and Isaiah Hicks all finished in double figures in the scoring department and physically manhandled Duke when North Carolina had the ball for large stretches.

The Tar Heels also grabbed 19 offensive rebounds and consistently put the ball in the basket on second chances.

North Carolina is unique with so much talent in the paint and a number of big men who can impact the game. If Duke wants to sweep the season matchups against its archrival, it can’t allow the Tar Heels to dominate down low on the offensive end once again. 

Ideally, Okafor’s ankle will be healthy by then.

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