Indianapolis Colts Mock Draft: 7-Round Predictions, Post-Combine
With the NFL Scouting Combine now complete, we turn our attention to free agency, pro days and quotes from "anonymous scouts" as our predraft appetizers.
The combine presented a closer look at a number of prospects, especially the high-profile guys expected to go in the higher rounds. For the Indianapolis Colts, the most important parts of the combine were the interviews and connections made with other front offices.
As Ryan Grigson told Kevin Bowen of Colts.com, things like the 40-yard dash are important, although not necessarily because it moves players on the draft board:
"... not that it is or isn’t the reason to draft a guy, but at the end of the day it helps you assign proper market value to the player. Especially at those skill positions. ... We honestly don’t touch our board much after the combine. I feel that is where big mistakes can be made because you are getting farther and farther away from your initial grade which was primarily off the game film, school visit and live look.
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So now that the combine is past, it's time for another mock draft. Who makes sense for Indianapolis to consider in each round?
1st Round, No. 29: LB/S Shaq Thompson
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The former two-way start for Washington didn't have the best of combines, but that may be the best possible outcome for the Colts.
Shaq Thompson played like an athletic freak as a Husky, playing linebacker as well as some part-time running back and being effective in both roles. After clarifying at the combine that he's a linebacker at heart, it seems Thompson only sees himself as a defender.
That would be fine for Indianapolis, which desperately needs a playmaker like Thompson. If the Colts want him to switch to a physical strong safety role, similar to what Kam Chancellor does in Seattle, Thompson could fill that void. If he can keep his weight up in an NFL strength program, he could stick as a three-down linebacker.
Thompson presents a bit of a risk for teams with a higher pick because of the uncertainty in his NFL role, but at No. 29, the upside may be too much to pass up. Even though Bucky Brooks of NFL.com thinks that Thompson "disappointed" in the combine because of average marks in the 40-yard dash, broad jump and vertical jump, he did post top-five marks in both the three-cone and 20-yard shuttle.
If Thompson falls because of an average 40 time, a team like the Colts could certainly benefit.
Scout's Take
"Talked to 2 teams, both say Shaq Thompson's position in NFL has to be SS. Had excellent workouts, really smart. #NFLCombine
— Gil Brandt (@Gil_Brandt) February 22, 2015"
2nd Round, No. 61: RB Jay Ajayi, Boise State
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If the Colts are looking for a running back to be a long-term core player, they will find a high amount of value in the second and third rounds of the draft.
Of those "second-tier" running backs, Jay Ajayi is one that checks all the boxes. He's got solid size (6'0", 216 pounds) and can run extremely physically through the line of scrimmage, but he can also be a receiver out of the backfield, something that will be critical for the Colts offense.
As well-rounded of a back as any in this class, Ajayi's feet are astounding to watch as he runs, whether it's making moves around defenders in open space, making quick cuts through holes or varying his speed as a runner. He took on a more physical, between-the-tackles role in 2014, and he responded with astounding aggression and relentless running.
As a receiver, Ajayi shows soft hands and comfort running routes both out of the backfield and split out wide, something the Colts utilized with Dan Herron in this past year's playoffs.
While he did have some disciplinary issues and a torn ACL in 2011, Ajayi has worked his way back to prominence in the last few years, and his work ethic and determination are lauded. He did have a heavy workload in 2014 and a few fumbling issues, which may give NFL scouts reason to pause, but Ajayi is as exciting a prospect as any in this draft.
Scout's Take
"Jay Ajayi and Melvin Gordon are the top comparisons for each other at 81.5% pic.twitter.com/83xQRHqzgJ
— Josh Norris (@JoshNorris) February 22, 2015"
3rd Round, No. 93: S Derron Smith, Fresno State
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If the Colts did take a potential strong safety like Thompson (or Landon Collins) in the first, it wouldn't surprise me to see them look for a long-term partner at free safety later in the draft.
In this case, Fresno State safety Derron Smith is the target.
Smith was a playmaker in college, racking up 13 interceptions between his sophomore and junior seasons. He was a little overburdened in 2014, but Smith has all the coverage skills that you'd want at the safety position. He can cover slot receivers one-on-one in man coverage, he can take a single-high role in zone coverage and he has fantastic ball skills.
Really, Smith is probably a second-round talent, but his size (5'11", 197 pounds) may keep teams from taking a chance on him. Personally, I wouldn't be afraid to take a flier on him in the second, but getting him in the third would be well worth the risk.
The Colts talked to Smith at the combine, per the Indianapolis Star's Stephen Holder, and it wouldn't surprise if they were impressed with his intelligence, being a former quarterback and having above-average football I.Q.
Smith didn't run at the combine, because of a recent sports hernia surgery, so keep an eye on his pro day to see how he tests.
Scout's Take
"Natural [football instincts]. Shows very good awareness and feel for the position. Maintains quality leverage and positioning as the last line of defense. Quick diagnostic and reaction skills finding the ball. Fast eyes and flashes anticipation to get an early step on the ball. Possesses playmaking instincts.
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4th Round, No. 125: WR Kenny Bell, Nebraska
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One of the most underrated wide receiver prospects in a very good class, Nebraska's Kenny Bell is held back only by a small frame (6'1", 197).
Though he's not a burner, he's fast enough to be a constant threat down the field, especially with a stellar ability to adjust to the ball. His route running could be polished a bit with technique work, but he shows the burst and change-of-direction ability needed to be a very good route-runner.
Bell tested very well for his strengths at the combine, running a 4.42 40-yard dash and posting very impressive numbers in the vertical jump (41.5 inches, third among WRs), broad jump (10'9", fourth) and three-cone (6.66 seconds). Of course, his biggest weakness was also on display: Bell finished with just seven reps on the bench press.
Yes, Bell may struggle against good press corners, especially early on, but he has the quick feet to improve his release, even if his upper body won't ever be one that can just shrug off defensive backs.
A smart, mature receiver with big-play potential, experience as a kick returner and the instincts to find holes in zone coverage? Sign me up.
Scout's Take
"Kenny Bell (WR - Nebraska) has my attention. https://t.co/yZr570V8kK
— Joe G (@JoeGoodberry) February 8, 2015"
5th Round, No. 157: DT Joey Mbu, Houston
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It would be tough for the Colts to go through the entire 2015 draft without drafting a defensive lineman. It's a deep draft on the line, and the Colts need help.
If the team doesn't draft one early, they still may be able to find some depth later on in the draft, with potential for more. That's where Houston's Joey Mbu falls for me.
Mbu is a very hard worker, combined with a perfect frame to play on the defensive interior in the NFL. At 6'3", 310 pounds, Mbu isn't the biggest nose tackle prospect, but he has the square body type to add more weight. While you don't want him to be overweight (he weighed as much as 350 pounds in college), he can add more bulk if a team wants to develop him as a nose tackle.
While he didn't dominate in college, he has the size and strength to work as a run-stuffing 3-4 end and the potential to move inside to tackle if need be.
Scout's Take
"He plays like it, too. Damn good tape. RT @MockingTheDraft 35-inch arms for Joey Mbu. — Doug Farrar (@SI_DougFarrar) February 20, 2015
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6th Round, No. 189: OG Jamil Douglas, Arizona State
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For the Colts, one of the most valued traits for an offensive lineman is versatility. That was a big reason why they drafted Jack Mewhort and Hugh Thornton, and it's why Joe Reitz has proved to have so much value as a depth player.
This is even more true in the later rounds, when teams are really looking for potential depth on the line. A backup guard who can swing to tackle if necessary (or vice versa) is twice as valuable as a depth player who is pigeonholed to one position. You only have 53 roster spots, and they must be used wisely.
Jamil Douglas is a tackle that will likely be moved to guard in the NFL. He is very athletic, but most think his arms are too short for him to handle NFL edge talent. Speaking of athletic, did I mention that the Colts value quick feet and an ability to pull with their guards? Notch that one down for Douglas.
Though he doesn't possess the raw power that is infatuating for college guard prospects, Douglas' athleticism and strong use of leverage makes him a fantastic candidate to contribute as a depth lineman early. But perhaps more importantly, he could well be a candidate to replace Jack Mewhort at left guard if the 2014 second-round pick ever moves out to right tackle.
Scout's Take
"Jamil Douglas first 10 yard split - 1.75 Definitely short area quickness for OG
— Mike Loyko (@NEPD_Loyko) February 20, 2015"
6th Round, No. 191/192: LB Mike Hull, Penn State
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Late in the draft, you always have to keep an eye out for prospects that can participate instantly on special teams. For the Colts, who have almost zero depth at inside linebacker, this fits together well.
Penn State's Mike Hull is kind of your storybook college inside linebacker. He's as strong as an ox, plays with incredible passion, has football bloodlines and is lauded as a team leader. Unfortunately, succeeding in those roles in college doesn't take quite as much athleticism as it does in the NFL.
Hull's strength is mostly upper body, meaning he can get overwhelmed in the run game, and he doesn't have the agility to excel at avoiding blockers altogether. Throw in average skills in open space, and you get somebody without a ton of upside at the NFL level.
But there is still significant value in Hull's intangibles and levels of production at Penn State, where he was named the defensive MVP in 2014. He has above-average instincts and vision, and he consistently gets to the ball in some fashion. He may not ever be Ray Lewis, but give him a shot on special teams to see if his intangibles can overcome his measurables.
Scout's Take
"Lot of tight hips exposed by that last drill. #PennState LB Mike Hull looked the best of the reps that were shown on TV. #NFLCombine
— Dan Hope (@Dan_Hope) February 22, 2015"
7th Round, No. 219: CB Deshazor Everett, Texas A&M
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Another small defensive back prospect, Texas A&M cornerback Deshazor Everett is a particularly aggressive cornerback who could benefit from some disciplined coaching.
A very fluid athlete with strong change-of-direction skills, Everett plays with a toughness that fans and coaches both love to see out of defensive backs. He's just as likely to come at a running back full speed for a tackle as he is to try to pick off a quick throw to the flats.
Of course, that aggression is a bit too reckless at times, leading to missed tackles and falling victim to double moves, something nobody wants to see.
But Everett played both cornerback and safety while in college, and he has the instincts and knowledge to be a more disciplined, patient player if groomed by the right staff. I see him as a perfect contender for a nickel or dime cornerback, although maybe not right away.
If the Colts re-sign Darius Butler and let Everett learn behind him and the outside corners, they could give themselves some cheap, must-needed potential in the secondary.
Scout's Take
"Good strength to press and reroute at the line of scrimmage. Ball skills need work, but he has good hands. Will play through injuries and compete at a consistent level. Got hurt against Arkansas but played through it and made winning tackle late in game. Didn't always use it, but has football intelligence. Will face up and tackle running backs on the perimeter. Has core special-teams ability.
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