Manchester United Sweating on Champions League Spot After Swansea Defeat

Louis van Gaal has a problem. For the first time, his "get out of jail free" card looks like it might be slipping away. 

Champions League football has been the answer to almost every criticism aimed at Van Gaal's Manchester United this season. There's a belief that it doesn't matter if the style of football isn't as free-flowing as it used to be or that the transition is taking a bit longer than expected if United finish in the top four.

Qualify for next season's Champions League, and all will be forgiven. But for the first time, that is looking far from certain. The defeat at Swansea City might only have been their second in the last 20 games.

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But should Southampton win or draw against Liverpool at St Mary's on Sunday, United will end the weekend outside the top four. It's a dangerous place to be with only three months of the season to go. Especially with the run-in United are facing.

There are 12 games left of the Premier League season, and they've still got to play Tottenham, Liverpool, Manchester City, Chelsea, Everton and Arsenal. There's also an FA Cup quarter-final against Arsenal to negotiate.

Their main rivals for a top-four finish are Arsenal and Southampton. But that Liverpool and Tottenham are still within touching distance will be a worry. It wasn't supposed to be like this.

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After six league wins on the bounce in November and December, during which they beat Arsenal away and Liverpool at home, United were looking up at Manchester City and Chelsea rather than over their shoulders. 

There was a genuine hope that, with the right run of results, they might be able to put some pressure on the teams above them. Not anymore. And United fans would snap your head off for fourth place if it were offered to them now.

Since that emphatic 3-0 win over Liverpool in December, United have won just four of their last 10 league games. Arsenal have won seven of their last 10, Southampton six, Tottenham seven and Liverpool six. 

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Of the teams chasing Champions League football, United are the ones out of form. The challenge for them now is to rediscover it when the pressure is on.

Most fans knew that a title challenge wasn't realistic, even after they spent more than £150 million in the summer. But Van Gaal is expected to deliver a top-four finish.

At the very least, it will buy him some time. Time to build a team capable of winning the Premier League. The Dutchman has such great self-belief that he'll still be sure he can lead United into the Champions League.

After the defeat to Swansea, for the first time, the fans might not be quite so confident.