Mayweather vs. Pacquiao: How Big of an Underdog Is Manny Pacquiao?

After more than a half-decade of waiting, holding our collective breath for an announcement that seemed like it would never come, the fight of the century has finally arrived. Manny Pacquiao (57-5-2, 38 KO), the Filipino sensation with dynamite in his hands and love in his heart, is fighting boxing's top villain, the fast-talking and faster-moving undefeated defensive genius Floyd Mayweather (47-0, 26 KO).

"This is the biggest boxing event of all time, we're confident of that. We couldn't be prouder to be a part of it and help craft it," president of HBO Sports Ken Hershman told reporters on a media conference call Friday. "We look forward to May 2. It's going to be a spectacular night for this sport and for HBO and Showtime as well."

For most casual fans, it's a fight all about glitz and glamour. After all, it's the two biggest stars in boxing, perhaps the last household names competing in what was once a premier mainstream sport, squaring off for tens of millions of dollars and a lifetime of bragging rights. It's a fight to decide which man was the best fighter of the last 10 years.

That's pretty cool.

Fighter	Floyd Mayweather	Manny Pacquiao
Record	47-0, 26 KOs	57-5-2, 38 KOs
Age	37*	36
Height	5'8"	5'6 1/2"
Weight	146.5 (last fight)	143.75 (last fight)
Stance	Orthodox	Southpaw
Reach	72"	67"
Residence	Las Vegas	General Santos City, Philippines
Rounds	363	407
Last fight	UD 12 Marcos Maidana (Sept. 13, 2014)	UD 12 Chris Algieri (Nov. 23, 2014)

To hardcore boxing fans, it's something else altogether. The two fighters aren't just stars. They're the best of the best in the ring, representing not just themselves but distinct approaches, with each man's ethos being the polar opposite of his opponent's.

Pacquiao is left-handed. Mayweather is a righty. Pacquiao punches in volume, willing to miss early and often in exchange for a chance to put leather on the chin. Mayweather punches so infrequently you'd think each blow cost him a chunk of his paycheck. He's content to wait for the perfect opening. But when he does throw, he's the most accurate puncher in boxing, according to CompuBoxOnline.com.

Speed, subterfuge and officiating will tell the tale. Each man's career, legacy and personal pride will very much be on the line. The collision should be something spectacular to behold.

The betting public seems to think it knows how this story ends—with Mayweather's hand raised for the 48th time in his career. He's been installed as a minus-285 favorite, according to Jack Randall of Odds Shark. Those are steep odds.

Too steep.

Mayweather is the favorite for a reason. He's beaten every man who's ever stepped into the ring for a professional prize fight against him. But Mayweather is not unbeatable. Pacquiao has a path to victory—this fight won't be won by default.

The perception that Mayweather will be a runaway winner is a product of Pacquaio's unfortunate knockout loss to Juan Manuel Marquez in 2012, a counter right to the jaw ending what, up to that point, had been a successful night for Pacquiao.

It's hard to get over the image of Pacquiao, facedown and unconscious, twitching ever so slightly like tiny electric shocks were going through his body. It was disturbing and unforgettable.

But it also made Pacquiao a better fighter, perhaps even one who can challenge Floyd.

"I can easily beat Floyd Mayweather, I believe that," Pacquiao wrote on Twitter. "Everyone had me as a big underdog to Oscar De La Hoya too. If Floyd Mayweather fights me, boxing will get an even bigger upset victory."

In response to failure, Pacquiao has become more disciplined. He still charges in behind his feints, hands blazing with a speed and fury few can match. It is, however, a more calculating kind of violence. The 2015 Pacquiao spends just as much mental energy planning his retreat as he does his attack. This is hardly your papa's Pac-Man.

It's a fight that, very likely, will be determined by Pacquiao's left hand versus Mayweather's right hand. One is a howitzer. The other is a low-caliber sniper rifle.

This fight is speed versus science. It's southpaw versus orthodox—and Mayweather has struggled at times with fast lefties like Zab Judah.

Manny's raison d'etre is to quickly close the distance to land his best punch. Mayweather, in turn, will attempt to either stymie him, using his five-inch reach advantage to pounce first, or counter a charging Pacquiao over the top anytime he makes a mistake.

The fight will be a dance, and not the kind we saw from Mayweather in his second bout with Marcos Maidana where he held him tightly throughout like the two were listening to a looping version of a sad, slow song.

The footwork here will be the fancy kind, with Pacquiao using unorthodox angles and craft to cut off the ring and Mayweather holding his ground at exactly the perfect distance, the range that allows him to pop Pacquiao in the nose while remaining just out of reach himself.

Mayweather is widely hailed as a defensive genius. And for good reason. The Maidana fights, however, had to give Pacquiao and his supporters hope. The Argentine was able to pressure Floyd with a barrage of punches, doing well when he refused to let the 37-year-old fighter rest.

Jonathan Moore/Getty Images

To Pacquiao's trainer, the legendary Freddie Roach, it was a clear sign Floyd was fading.

"I think Mayweather is shot, his legs are gone and Manny will knock him out," he told BoxingScene.com. "He says he's sitting down [and not moving as often] to please the crowd. He don't care about pleasing no crowd, I don't think. He just can't move no more. His legs are shot. He's done."

If Pacquiao wins several early rounds, while Mayweather adjusts to his unorthodox rhythm and timing, and then overwhelms him with his speed and aggression as the aging star struggles to move out of his way, this is a fight that could end with a spectacular upset.

I'm not saying it will happen that way. But I'm not saying it won't either. This is anybody's fight. And I can't wait to see it.