Spring Training Expectations for MLB's No. 1 Pitching Prospect, Lucas Giolito

Last month we took an in-depth look at Washington Nationals right-hander Lucas Giolito, the consensus No. 1 overall pitching prospect heading into the season, as well as what should be expected of him realistically in 2015.

Since then, the Nationals have extended spring training invitations to 20 non-roster players, a group that includes catching prospects Pedro Severino and Spencer Kieboom. Giolito did not receive an invitation to big league camp this year, unfortunately.

However, that shouldn’t come as a complete surprise, as the 20-year-old is still technically recovering from Tommy John surgery in late 2012, and we all know how careful the Nationals are with pitchers following arm injuries.

Giolito was viewed as a candidate to go No. 1 overall in the 2012 draft after the right-hander lit up radar guns with his fastball and dropped jaws with his curveball early in the spring for Harvard-Westlake High School (California).

Unfortunately, Giolito suffered a strained ligament in his right elbow roughly two months into the season and was shut down indefinitely. He avoided surgery, but the injury ultimately cost Giolito the remainder of his high school campaign and the chance to be the first prep right-hander drafted No. 1 overall.

Yet even though Giolito missed most of the spring, the Washington Nationals still selected the right-hander with the No. 16 overall selection in the 2012 draft and offered him a $2.925 million signing bonus.

Making his first professional start later that summer, Giolito made it just two innings in the game before his elbow flared up once again. This time, however, there would be no rest and rehab, as he was forced to undergo season-ending Tommy John surgery.

After 10 months on the shelf, Giolito returned to the mound late in the 2013 season to post a 1.96 ERA with 39 strikeouts in 36.2 innings between the Gulf Coast and New York-Penn Leagues.

Suffice it to say, expectations were high for Giolito headed into 2014. Amazingly, the 20-year-old did not disappoint.

In his first full season back from surgery, not to mention his first full season as a professional, Giolito led the Low-A South Atlantic League (among pitchers with 90 innings) in ERA (2.20), strikeout percentage (28.5 percent) and opponents’ batting average (.196), per FanGraphs. (For those interested in learning more about the right-hander, I thoroughly detailed his front-of-the-rotation arsenal, complete with firsthand video and GIFs of his individual pitches, in last month’s piece.)

The Nationals shut down the right-hander after 98 innings due to the organization’s protocol with young pitchers rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, according to Adam Kilgore of The Washington Post.

The organization’s decision not to invite Giolito to big league camp this year means he’ll likely spend the spring on the minor league side, playing games against fellow prospects on the back fields.

In an MLB Network Radio interview last week, the Nationals' assistant general manger and vice president of player development and pro scouting, Doug Harris, talked about the process of rehabbing starters after Tommy John surgery (h/t Federal Baseball). He also touched on the organization’s plan for Giolito moving forward:

"We're going to continue to build him incrementally," Harris said to the program’s hosts, Mike Ferrin and Jim Duquette.

"Beyond an individual going through the procedure, we have parameters that we work within with regard to building pitchers and building their volume year-to-year. So we expect him to continue to build that volume and face a greater level of competition and extend him a little bit more in individual outings and the volume throughout the course of the year."

While Giolito didn’t receive an invitation to major league camp this year, it’s not uncommon for teams to call upon young players late in spring training to play a few games or make a spot start.

The only real knock on the 20-year-old right now is that he’s never faced upper-level hitters outside of the 2014 SiriusXM All-Star Futures Game, when he surrendered a booming opposite-field home run to Javier Baez. So, there could be some value in giving Giolito an opportunity to face major league hitters with a two- or three-inning outing in mid- to late March.

At the same time, the Nationals obviously know what they have in Giolito, so showcasing him in front of the entire organization during spring training is probably unnecessary.

“We have to understand there are still goals to reach,” said Mark Scialabba, the Nationals' director of player development, via Chelsea Janes of The Washington Post, regarding Giolito.

“We are going to proceed like with our previous players who have gone through this surgery, but also understand that he’s a special, unique talent.”

Luckily, the Nationals’ tremendous pitching depth gives them the liberty to continue their thorough and cautious development of Giolito in 2015. The right-hander is likely to begin the season at High-A Potomac in the Carolina League, and if all goes as planned there, Giolito could even log some time at Double-A Harrisburg too.

Giolito’s chances of reaching the major leagues in 2015 are slim to none, and that should remain the case even if he puts up insanely good numbers in High- and Double-A. Rather, all signs point to Giolito reaching the major leagues sometime during the 2016 season after he’s completed his rehabilitation program and been let off the leash by the Nationals.