2015 NFL Mock Draft: Predictions for Round 1's Biggest Boom-or-Bust Prospects

There's no turning back. With the NFL Scouting Combine starting up, NFL draft coverage infiltrates the universe from this point forward.

Football fanatics will spend the next two months obsessing over young talent looking to catch a big break. All conversations now must revolve around 40-yard dash times and evaluations on every prospect's size, speed, strength, agility, burst and on-field presence. 

No winter is now complete without prognosticating the big day. Nobody knows for sure how Round 1 will unfold until April 30, but let's surmise a mock draft anyway.

Pick	Team	Selection
1	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon
2	Tennessee Titans	Jameis Winston, QB, Florida State
3	Jacksonville Jaguars	Leonard Williams, DL, USC
4	Oakland Raiders	Randy Gregory, DE/OLB, Nebraska
5	Washington Redskins	Shane Ray, DE/OLB, Missouri
6	New York Jets	Amari Cooper, WR, Alabama
7	Chicago Bears	Landon Collins, SS, Alabama
8	Atlanta Falcons	Dante Fowler Jr., DE/OLB, Florida
9	New York Giants	Brandon Scherff, OT, Iowa
10	St. Louis Rams	Andrus Peat, OT, Stanford
11	Minnesota Vikings	T.J. Clemmings, OT, Pittsburgh
12	Cleveland Browns	Kevin White, WR, West Virginia
13	New Orleans Saints	Vic Beasley, DE/OLB, Clemson
14	Miami Dolphins	Shaq Thompson, OLB, Washington
15	San Francisco 49ers	Ereck Flowers, OT, Miami (Florida)
16	Houston Texans	Trae Waynes, CB, Michigan State
17	San Diego Chargers	Eddie Goldman, DT, Florida State
18	Kansas City Chiefs	DeVante Parker, WR, Louisville
19	Cleveland Browns (via Buffalo)	Danny Shelton, DT, Washington
20	Philadelphia Eagles	Marcus Peters, CB, Washington
21	Cincinnati Bengals	Alvin Dupree, DE/OLB, Kentucky
22	Pittsburgh Steelers	Kevin Johnson, CB, Wake Forest
23	Detroit Lions	Michael Bennett, DT, Ohio State
24	Arizona Cardinals	Arik Armstead, DE/OLB, Oregon
25	Carolina Panthers	La'el Collins, OT, LSU
26	Baltimore Ravens	Dorial Green-Beckham, WR, Oklahoma
27	Dallas Cowboys	P.J. Williams, CB, Ohio State
28	Denver Broncos	Jordan Phillips, DT, Oklahoma
29	Indianapolis Colts	Melvin Gordon, RB, Wisconsin
30	Green Bay Packers	Benardrick McKinney, ILB, Mississippi State
31	Seattle Seahawks	Devin Funchess, WR, Michigan
32	New England Patriots	Cameron Erving, C, Florida State

Every organization faces the daunting challenge of weighing risk versus reward to wring out the most possible value from its selections. Too many dangerous chances can cause calamity, but staying inside the comfort zone rarely lands anyone a superstar.

Some prospects possess Pro Bowl talent. Those same guys, however, also may turn into the opening round's biggest flop. Let's take a closer look at three such boom-or-bust players.

Jameis Winston, QB, Florida State

There's often little wiggle room between success and failure for top-drafted quarterbacks. Either they stick around as a franchise mainstay or fall into infamy for not saving the organization.

Every recent passing prospect short of Andrew Luck could classify under the "boom-or-bust" heading. Letdown year and off-field conflicts aside, Jameis Winston factors into the No. 1 pick discussion alongside Oregon's Marcus Mariota. 

The center of a civil lawsuit filed by a woman accusing him of sexual assault, Winston becomes a terrifying endeavor expected to serve as the face of his new organization. Lovie Smith, whose Tampa Bay Buccaneers hold the top pick, said he won't hold the accusations against the quarterback. Per ESPN.com's Pat Yasinskas:

"

To me, I think he's told us an awful lot with how he's handled it. It's not like he's getting ready to go into the NFL and scrutiny is coming his way. He's gone through it a couple years now and he's answered the bell. That's what you have to do. You have to have tunnel vision and do your job. Looking from the outside, that's what he's been able to do.

"

Smith doesn't represent the NFL and entire Tampa Bay franchise, but it's the first public sign of how the league views Winston. His rocket arm and experience in a pro-style offense have many scouts preferring him to Mariota, but even on the field he's a risk. During a disappointing redshirt sophomore season, he threw 18 picks and constantly started slow with 6.66 yards per attempt during the first quarter.

Smith's comments made the No. 1 pick a tougher call, but expect the Buccaneers to lean toward the safer Mariota. Without anyone taking a public stance against Winston, the Tennessee Titans will probably grab him with the next selection.

Dorial Green-Beckham, WR, Oklahoma

On pure talent alone, Dorial Green-Beckham deserves consideration as the class' top wide receiver. Sports Illustrated's Aaron Nagler believes he deserves that honor.

Listed at 6'5" with great explosiveness and verticality, Green-Beckham offers tremendous playmaking upside on jump balls. An AFC college scout offered high praise for the incoming wideout, courtesy of NFL.com's Albert Breer:

"

He's one of the best receivers I've ever seen. He's special. He's gigantic; he has tremendous body control, balance; he runs like a deer and can leap out of the gym and high-point the ball. He's special. It's impressive. If not for all that stuff, he'd be the best receiver to come out since Calvin Johnson.

"

Like Winston, Green-Beckham is an immense talent whose "stuff" can't go ignored. He was kicked off Missouri's team for an incident where he allegedly pushed a woman down stairs after breaking into his girlfriend's apartment. 

Although he was not charged, it cost him the 2014 season, ending his college career with just 87 catches through two seasons. Those who take his latest comments of regret to heart will instead dissect his sluggish route running, making Green-Beckham the ultimate cautionary tale candidate.

As a result, he'll fall near the bottom of the first round, where the Baltimore Ravens could gamble on him, giving Joe Flacco another huge downfield target alongside Torrey Smith.

Arik Armstead, DE, Oregon

Brian Bahr/Getty Images

For Arik Armstead, at least all the downsides stem from his body of work on the gridiron. A project pick, the defensive lineman's incredible size and power frame him as a high selection despite areas for improvement.

A tremendous athlete for his hulking stature, Armstead turned some heads by recording nine total tackles during the College Football Playoff National Championship. Despite closing the year strong, however, he remains raw with 47 tackles amassed through 11 games.

In Lance Zierlein's player profile on NFL.com, he relayed some sobering analysis from an unnamed Pac-12 area scout.

"I see the power in his hands and all of his tools, but I don't see the production or the consistent push that I feel like I should see from him," the scout said. 'He could end up being a monster, but you have to understand that what you get right now is just a big athlete with some upside."

Yet he also has a devout following, including ESPN's Kevin Weidl:

In his latest mock draft, ESPN's Mel Kiper Jr. pegs the Atlanta Falcons to snag him at pick No. 8. That's a bold choice, but a strong combine could at least vault him into top 15 consideration. For now, he inches up to No. 24, where the Arizona Cardinals can target a pass-rusher after locking up Larry Fitzgerald to an extension.