Ranking the Colts' Best Draft Picks Under Ryan Grigson

As the draft approaches, one of the things I like to do is to take a moment to look back at past Indianapolis Colts drafts.

We are entering the fourth offseason of Ryan Grigson's tenure as the general manager of the Colts, and it's difficult to be unhappy with his drafting thus far. The Colts had two strong classes in three years, which is impressive considering that the bad year (2013) hasn't panned out for many teams thus far.

Oh, there are reasons to criticize Grigson. Trading for Trent Richardson was a mistake, and the GM's liberal nature of trading draft picks has come back to bite at times (although Vontae Davis and T.Y. Hilton were worth it). His free-agency strategies have not worked out on the whole, and the team has significant needs across the board. 

But the drafts? Those have been strong, at least in the limited years we've seen from the results. 

So in that spirit, I took each of Grigson's draft picks from the last three seasons and ranked them. Keep in mind, this isn't a ranking of pure talent, but a combination of talent, production, cost, expectations and future potential. If two players were the same in terms of talent and production, the player who was drafted in the sixth round would trump the second-rounder, for example.

Who have been Grigson and the Colts' most impressive picks?

Disagree with the rankings? Let us know in the comments section.

The Forgotten Six

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One of the glaring blemishes on Grigson's fairly strong drafting resume is the complete lack of productivity from the team's late-round picks.

The "Forgotten Six" are the six players who failed to appear in more than one game for the Colts, because of injury or being cut for better players. It includes all six of the Colts' seventh-round picks since 2012.

• OT Justin Anderson
• LB Tim Fugger
• QB Chandler Harnish
• TE Justice Cunningham
• RB Kerwynn Williams
• OT Ulrick John

John is still on the roster, but much like Anderson, he spent all of his rookie year on the injured reserve list. He was a developmental project from the beginning, however, and could still theoretically contribute.

A Troubled Trio

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Ironically enough, all of the Colts' sixth-round picks have had similar fates as well: They were all cut for off-field issues.

• LaVon Brazill lasted two years and played in 25 games, but the team cut him in the summer of 2014 when he received a yearlong suspension for a PED violation. It was Brazill's second suspension for violating the substance abuse policy.
• The Colts released Andrew Jackson in January after he received a DUI. He had played in 13 games as a rookie and had potential as a depth linebacker, but it was his second arrest in less than a year, and he had blown multiple chances to get the previous charge dropped.
• Safety John Boyett never got a chance to make an impact on the field, getting released after being arrested for disorderly conduct, public intoxication and resisting arrest. Boyett infamously yelled "I'm a Colt" while officers tried to detain him. He was arrested in an eerily similar scenario in October in Denver after the Broncos took a chance on him.

The Rest: Honorable Mentions

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Now we get into the actual contributors who are still with the team. But before we get to the top 10, we have a few honorable mentions—players who have been limited in their impact for one reason or another.

First is Khaled Holmes, the center from USC who was drafted in the fourth round in 2013. Holmes was injured in the preseason in his rookie year and never was given a shot (at center or otherwise) for the rest of the year, despite guys like Samson Satele and Mike McGlynn holding starting positions. In 2014, he dealt with various injuries and odd rotations at center to appear in eight games.

Holmes did start all three playoff games for the Colts, but his performances have been less than impressive, and there is still significant uncertainty at the position.

Second is Montori Hughes, whom the Colts traded their 2014 fourth-round draft pick for during the 2013 draft. The team picked him up in the fifth round; he had potential but character concerns and a lack of production in college plagued him. Hughes has since turned into a good teammate in Indianapolis but hasn't produced on the field. Despite a lacking group of defensive linemen, Hughes has played just 272 total snaps in those two years.

The final honorable mention is Vick Ballard, though it's not his fault. He exceeded expectations as a fifth-round rookie in 2012, becoming the team's starting running back by midseason. But Ballard missed all of the last two seasons with leg injuries (an ACL in 2013 and an Achilles in 2014) and only averaged 3.9 yards per carry in his one healthy season. It's unlikely that he'll contribute again, although the Colts will give him another shot in 2015.

10. OLB Bjoern Werner

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The cost is the key here. The Colts spent a first-round pick on Bjoern Werner out of Florida State in 2013, and he's arguably been the most disappointing pick of the Grigson era.

Of course, Werner has contributed, playing in 28 games over two seasons and starting 16 of them. But he only has 6.5 sacks (Jonathan Newsome had the same number in his rookie season) over those two years, and hasn't been good enough in run defense to offset the lack of pass rush.

There's also the issue of the Colts' lack of trust in Werner as his sophomore season went on. He played in less than 70 percent of the defensive snaps for the first time all season in the Colts win over Houston in Week 15, was below 60 percent in his next two games and then played in just 37 percent of the snaps against Denver in the divisional round of the playoffs, per Pro Football Focus. He was a healthy scratch against the Patriots in the AFC Championship Game.

The Colts later said Werner was dealing with a lingering shoulder injury late in the season, which would correlate with his declining playing time, but he was only on the injury report for Week 17 (when he sat out the Colts' final regular-season game) and in the Wild Card Round. 

Whatever the case, there is no question that Werner needs a strong third season in 2015 to jump-start his career. Newsome looks to have overtaken him in the outside linebacker hierarchy, and Robert Mathis will return next season. Don't be surprised if the Colts look at the draft for another edge player this April.

9. OL Hugh Thornton

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The former Illinois offensive lineman has been productive for the Colts, starting 24 games over the last two seasons since being drafted in Round 3 in 2013. He was forced into a starting role as a rookie when Donald Thomas went down with a season-ending quad injury early on and predictably struggled.

The hope was that when Hugh Thornton returned to the right side, where the Colts initially wanted to groom him, he would rebound with a strong sophomore effort. But while he flashed improvements, he still struggled. He was also benched in a disciplinary incident at one point and ended the season on IR with an MCL injury.

On one hand, Thornton has flashed a tantalizing combination of power and athleticism while healthy in Indianapolis. On the other hand, he's been inconsistent and didn't make the leap that was hoped in 2014.

The jury is still out on Thornton, but ending the year on injured reserve and being outplayed by rookie Jack Mewhort and reserves Joe Reitz and A.Q. Shipley don't paint a pretty picture.

8. NT Josh Chapman

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Before Josh Chapman even hit the field, he endeared himself to fans, earning the nickname "Chapnado" and garnering a storm of buzz.

The former Alabama nose tackle dropped to the Colts in the fifth round in 2012 due to tearing his ACL and meniscus. Chapman was a premier run defender at Alabama, and the hope was that he could do the same in Indianapolis once healthy. He missed his entire rookie season while rehabbing his knee.

When he did make the field in 2013, there was a transitional period as he shared the nose tackle job with Aubrayo Franklin. But by the end of the year, he had earned the starting job, and expectations were high in 2014.

Unfortunately, Chapman didn't make a leap in 2014, and he stayed a very similar player. He was capable of breathtaking moments but would break down and have prolonged stretches of poor play. Chapman still seems to be a decent contributor but not one worthy of a starting position.

Still, for a fifth-round pick, the Colts have managed to get decent value out of Chapman, and the story isn't over yet.

7. WR Donte Moncrief

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While Donte Moncrief only caught 32 passes and three touchdowns as a rookie in 2014, his 444 yards was the third-most by a wide receiver on the team by the end of the year, and he earned what was essentially a starting position.

Drafted in the third round, Moncrief exceeded his expectations. No, he didn't match T.Y. Hilton's exceptional rookie production (50 catches, 871 yards, seven touchdowns), but this team also has more receiving weapons than the 2012 team did.

Of course, it wasn't all positive for Moncrief. He disappeared for long stretches of time and was even more boom/bust than Hilton ever was. When the Patriots dared Moncrief to beat them by doubling Hilton and focusing more attention on Reggie Wayne and Coby Fleener, he failed to do so.

Still, the foundation is there for Moncrief, and he has a lot of potential to build on.

6. OG Jack Mewhort

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The true value in Jack Mewhort will be seen in the long term, not just a rookie season, but so far, so good for the 2014 second-rounder.

The Colts moved the former Ohio State tackle to left guard immediately after arriving in Indianapolis, and he and left tackle Anthony Castonzo developed a strong working relationship quickly. Not only did Mewhort play well for himself (a positive 0.2 grade from Pro Football Focus was the second-highest among the team's starting linemen), but having a consistent force next to Castonzo led to the former 2011 first-round pick's best season. 

Even if Mewhort doesn't develop at all and stays a relatively average guard for his entire career, the consistency would be a huge plus for the Colts. The team needs reliable linemen, and Mewhort was one in 2014.

It's not a flashy pick, and I'm not sure how high his ceiling is, but Mewhort has worked out well so far.

5. TE Coby Fleener

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One could argue Coby Fleener deserves a higher place on this list.

After all, he's been more reliable (from an injury standpoint) than Dwayne Allen so far in his career and is a more dynamic receiving threat. While Allen is known as a touchdown-scoring machine, Fleener matched his eight touchdowns this season.

In the end, however, Allen is just a better all-around player and was picked a round later, which gives him the slight edge in my book (he's also more than a year-and-a-half younger). But Fleener, who was drafted in the second round in 2012, is still a strong pick in Grigson's hat, especially if he can build on 2014's strong campaign.

Fleener finally started to become the deep threat he was envisioned to be in 2014, averaging more than 15 yards per catch (the best among all tight ends) and finishing in the top 10 in yards and touchdowns. He still struggles with drops at times and isn't a great blocker, but he fills his role well.

He's a big part of the Colts' vertical offense and should continue to be a key for Andrew Luck and Pep Hamilton in 2015.

4. TE Dwayne Allen

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After 2012, it almost feels like Dwayne Allen has disappointed in the last two years.

During his rookie season, the third-rounder was one of the most well-rounded tight ends in the league, and he looked poised to take the league by storm.

But, a season-ending hip injury derailed that dream in 2013, and people forgot about Allen. While he was once again a touchdown-scoring machine in 2014, he still never got quite back up to his 2012 level of play.

Despite that perception, Allen is still a good player. He was one of the most efficient receiving tight ends in the league in 2014, finishing second in DVOA among tight ends, per Football Outsiders. Despite not seeing the same snaps as other premier tight ends, Allen's eight touchdowns were bested only by Julius Thomas, Antonio Gates, Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham.

Allen saw a rash of drops at the end of the season that were a bit concerning, but he's still a solid possession tight end. Plus, he's a phenomenal blocker, allowing just one hurry in pass protection, per Pro Football Focus. The Colts routinely ask him to take on defensive linemen one-on-one, with little-to-no drop-off in effectiveness.

He's just 24, turning 25 later this month, and still will be a key building block to build around in the future...as long as he stays healthy.

3. OLB Jonathan Newsome

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It may be a little crazy to put Jonathan Newsome this high, especially given that he's only played one season.

But keep in mind that Newsome was a fifth-round draft pick and a rather obscure one at that. Most analysts had the former Ball State pass-rusher as an end-of-draft guy or potentially an undrafted free agent. Grigson saw something in Newsome that reminded him of Robert Mathis and pulled the trigger.

Newsome blew his expectations out of the water as a rookie, as Nate Dunlevy of Colts Authority explains:

"

For a guy who inspired comparisons with a young Robert Mathis, Newsome lived up to the lofty billing. When a GM gets this kind of production from the fifth round, he lights up a stogie and smiles. Killer pick, and one of the few young defenders that Colts fans can really get excited about.

"

No, Newsome wouldn't have gotten the opportunity without Mathis' injury, but he certainly took advantage of it. Newsome finished with the second-most sacks among all rookies (Aaron Donald) and had the second-best rate of pressures per pass rush, according to Pro Football Focus (Anthony Barr).

Only time will tell if Newsome will live up to the high expectations he's set. But right now, he looks like a steal that Grigson may one day be able to look back on as a crowning moment of his career, similar to how Bill Polian can look back on some of his late-round hits.

2. QB Andrew Luck

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Yes, Andrew Luck is No. 2 on this list.

Put down the pitchforks and step away from the keyboard for a minute. Read the rest of this slide, and the next one, before you say angry things about my mother.

There is no question that Luck is the best player that Ryan Grigson has drafted. He's made the most impact of any drafted player in the league since 2012, much less among Colts players. He's set to become the face of the league as the leader of the next generation of quarterbacks.

He is everything the Colts hoped he would be and more. He is the reason the Colts have been to the playoffs in three straight seasons. Grigson's career will forever be tied to him.

But how much credit can we give Grigson for the pick? It's worth credit, certainly; that's why he's No. 2 on the list. While it's easy to say now that the pick was a no-brainer, the Luck vs. Robert Griffin III debate was real in 2012.

No, Luck belongs on this list, and very high, simply because of the vast impact he has and will make on the franchise.

But make no mistake: Having the No. 1 overall pick in a draft where Luck was available made things a little easier on the general manager.

1. WR T.Y. Hilton

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While T.Y. Hilton isn't Andrew Luck, he's the second-most important person on the team and earned his Pro Bowl appearance in 2012 with a season worthy of a No. 1 receiver.

The list of accolades for Hilton could go on for days.

He and Larry Fitzgerald, for example, are the only two players in NFL history to average more than 100 yards receiving in the playoffs (minimum five playoff games), per Pro Football Reference. He has more receiving yards than any receiver in Colts history in their first three seasons (10th in league history), besting Marvin Harrison by over 800 yards and Reggie Wayne by nearly 1,400 yards. He is one of four receivers in league history to have 16 or more 100-yard receiving games in their first three seasons, with Randy Moss being the only other receiver to do it since 1980.

The list goes on and on.

Hilton went from a dynamic deep threat to a blooming star from his rookie year to his sophomore campaign, and he took the next step to bona fide, well-rounded stud in 2014.

Trading a future pick to trade up five spots to draft a 5'9" receiver seemed like an eye-rolling move in 2012. Hilton was a future return specialist with maybe some big-play potential.

Where would the Colts be without him now? Luck is the franchise savior, but he needed a partner and a weapon. The Colts gave him one in Hilton.

A late third-round pick from Florida International? That'll top my list every time.